Commercial Integrator July 2022 - 4

EDITOR'S NOTE
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Headwinds
and Tailwinds
INFOCOMM '22 was an intoxicating brew of
R&D innovation, #avselfi es and hugs, supplychain
commiserations, provocative panels and
moments of revelatory clarity about why live,
in-person gatherings are our collective beating
heart. I could fi ll pages with everything I saw,
learned and felt, but, here, I'll focus on how
my show experience started. On June 7, Sean
Wargo, AVIXA's senior director of market intelligence,
and Peter Hansen, AVIXA's economist,
briefed me on the association's
latest detailed market research.
As always, they off ered actionable
information, fusing macroeconomic
projections with
well-sourced insights into key
vertical-market and solution-area
opportunities.
Macroeconomically, the news
is suboptimal. According to
Hansen, although the U.S. will
probably experience respectable
GDP growth this year, the
outlook has soſt ened through
Q1/22 and Q2/22. Although
Hansen puts recession odds slightly under 50%,
he says they're higher now than at any point in
the last decade. This is due, in part, to infl ation
we've not seen since the early '80s and the Federal
Reserve's aggressive interest-rate hikes to try
to tame it. Higher interest rates mean borrowing
will soon cost more, which tends to disincentivize
the kinds of investments fi rms make when
money is cheap. Higher interest rates have the
related eff ect of depressing demand. (Overabundant
demand, as we've had over the last
12-plus months, pushes prices higher.)
Excessive demand is also, according to Hansen,
the root of current supply-chain snarls. He
notes that 2022 has sadly marked a new peak in
supply shortages, and he points directly to spiking
demand far outstripping product availability.
Although this supply/demand mismatch might
now be abating, Hansen cautions that supply
shortages might persist in some areas through
2023 and into 2024, albeit in a scaled-down
way. The best possible outcome, he argues,
4
Commercial Integrator JULY 2022
would be an economy continuing to grow quickly
but not at the blistering pace we saw aſt er the
historic, pandemic-era stimulus investments.
That would decelerate demand enough to allow
supply to catch up.
For the commercial AV industry, AVIXA
Macroeconomic
headwinds
notwithstanding,
technology
professionals
should
be optimistic.
research forecasts a 5.9% CAGR between 2022
and 2027. Perhaps most auspiciously, Wargo
and Hansen expect 2022 revenues to exceed
those from 2019; thus, they expect this year to
mark a new high. Asked about
the biggest growth areas,
Wargo points to live events
(e.g., concerts, shows) as well as
performance and entertainment
(i.e., fi xed applications). This
isn't surprising, given that most
of us are eager to put pandemic-era
lifestyle modifi cations
behind us. Wargo also highlights
ripe opportunities in the
corporate segment, particularly
as companies reimagine the
workplace. As always, technology
facilitates adaptation,
helping employers avoid either/or dichotomies
regarding in-person versus remote. In Wargo's
mind, corporate represents the best opportunity
to harness the power of hybrid.
Macroeconomic headwinds notwithstanding,
technology professionals should be optimistic.
Managed-services revenues continue to
increase, lighting a path to more sustainable
business models. And we're witnessing the
rise of the experience economy - in particular,
experiential leisure. This invites integrators to
conceive and deliver the kinds of indelible experiences
that only AV professionals can. Should
we be realistic about the headwinds? Yes. But
we shouldn't be blind to the tailwinds.
I learned a lot at InfoComm. I also laughed
a lot and leſt with memories I'll carry with me
always. It was experiential; it was immersive. And
it infused me with confi dence that our industry
- and, more importantly, its people - stands
ready to weather transitory storms and emerge
stronger and better.
EDITORIAL
Editor-in-Chief Dan Ferrisi,
914-383-9030, dan.ferrisi@emeraldx.com
Chief Content Offi cer Jason Knott,
774-505-8042, jason.knott@emeraldx.com
Associate Editor Zachary Comeau,
774-505-8006, zachary.comeau@emeraldx.com
Associate Editor Amala Reddie,
774-505-8039, amala.reddie@emeraldx.com
Technology Editor Robert Archer,
774-505-8049, robert.archer@emeraldx.com
Web Editor Alyssa Borelli,
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ADVERTISING SALES
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EMERALD CORPORATE
Executive Vice President Brian Pagel,
770-291-5438, brian.pagel@emeraldx.com
President and CEO Hervé Sedky
Chief Operating Offi cer Brian Field
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Executive Vice President, People and Culture
Ren Akinci
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General Counsel and Corporate Secretary
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Commercial Integrator July 2022

Table of Contents for the Digital Edition of Commercial Integrator July 2022

Commercial Integrator July 2022 - Cover1
Commercial Integrator July 2022 - Cover2
Commercial Integrator July 2022 - 1
Commercial Integrator July 2022 - 2
Commercial Integrator July 2022 - 3
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Commercial Integrator July 2022 - Cover3
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