January/February 2023 - 15

see the same amount of business come in the door.
The need for our products and our services, I believe
is going to be consistent. It's just going to be a lot
harder for us to provide that service. But ultimately,
I think the same amount of work is going to come
in whether I can get the same amount of work out,
there's the challenge, " he said.
Stepping into 2023
Since NBAA-BACE, the industry has already seen
handful of hits and near misses aligned with the
predictions laid out above.
In the U.S., a rail strike was narrowly averted
at the beginning of December, which would have
greatly intensified the struggles with, if not outright
crippled the supply chain. Rail strikes are still being
threatened Britain, as AMT goes to press.
Internationally in December, Congress approved
$50 billion - in mostly military - aid to Ukraine
to support their conflict with Russia, and China
ended its zero-COVID policies at the same time
the world saw the new COVID XBB.1.5 omicron
subvariant emerge. These factors show that while
the supply chain issues appear to be easing, the
struggles that exacerbated it to begin with are
still well in place.
On the technician side of the industry's struggles,
the Aviation Technician Education Council (ATEC)
released the 2022 edition of their annual Pipeline
Report in November. ATEC's report shows a trend
in the right direction, but with numbers still falling
short of what's needed.
ATEC reports that 6,929 people received their
FAA mechanic certificate, a 33 percent increase
since their last report was published in October
2021. ATEC notes it's the largest increase in recent
history, it fell short of 2019 levels and did not make
up for the previous year's 30 percent drop in certifications.
The Pipeline Report estimates the pandemic
has cost the industry 5,000 new mechanics.
ATEC says the mechanic pipeline will need to
increase by at least 20 percent to meet projected
workforce demands. In comparison, aviation
maintenance technician school enrollment is only
growing by 2 percent each year. The Pipeline Report
states that A&P schools are experiencing only a 56
percent load factor and the lack of program awareness
is likely a major limiting factor to growth. An
increase in high school pipeline programs could be
a solution, the ATEC report states.
And while the supply chain and technician
shortage remain two of the most pressing industry
challenges, 2023 is already proving to have a few
new tricks up its sleeve. On Jan. 11, flights across
the U.S. were grounded due to a failure of the FAA's
Notice to Air Mission (NOTAM) system. The FAA
has blamed the outage on a damaged database
file. While this incident will likely go down as a
one time fluke, it shows that the long concerns
around aging technology and infrastructure in
the aviation industry have not been supplanted
by COVID-19's issues, despite the focus being put
mostly on them since.
As the industry steps into 2023, there are many
signs for optimism as shown by the easing and
avoidance of new supply chain issues and the
uptick in new mechanic certifications. The holiday
season also showed people are more willing
to travel than ever since the pandemic era began.
Though 2023 is sure to bring with it new challenges,
the industry has weathered much since
COVID-19 began, and the lessons learned since
will continue the overall trends of growth experienced
in 2022.
See more
View the extended
Outlook Report
interviews at
AviationPros.
com/21293022,
with interviewees
predicting the
technological
advances to watch
for in 2023 and more.
http://www.pentagon2000.com
January/February 2023

Table of Contents for the Digital Edition of January/February 2023
