May/June 2023 - 41

A R S A INS IG H T
Unbreakable Optimism
Each spring, ARSA's team runs the association's Annual Member Survey. Thanks
to a lot of effort in standardizing the survey's questions, responses provide a
useful snapshot of the maintenance industry that forms an ongoing narrative
we closely follow year over year.
The story often reflects incredible change and
economic swings. During the business disruptions
of the global pandemic, our annual survey and others
ARSA conducted provided key insight regarding
dramatic shifts in employment and revenues.
ARSA took the survey data to Congress, which in
turn directed billions of dollars in COVID relief to
the maintenance industry.
On the other hand, some answers are reliably consistent
year over year, especially member expectations.
Except for the special pandemic survey administered
in the middle of 2020, ARSA members have
been uniformly bullish about the future:
Which statement best reflects your company's
business outlook for the coming year versus [the
past year]?
Response
Our revenues
and markets
will grow.
Our revenues
and markets will
stay the same.
Our revenues
and markets
will contract.
I don't know.
2021
53%
25%
6%
15%
2022
78%
9%
8%
5%
2023
69%
19%
5%
8%
In each of the past three years, more than half of
respondents have forecasted growth for their business.
The past two years have seen more than twothirds
in this most-hopeful category - 2022's was
nearly four out of five - with no more than 8 percent
ever predicting contraction. This positive expectation
drives responses to a related question about hiring
plans: Similarly strong majorities expect to add personnel
- or at least try to; we know how difficult
finding talent can be - with almost all planning to
at least hold their workforce steady, which usually
requires hiring to account for attrition.
The growth our members have consistently predicted
is happening. The 2023 installment of ARSA's
Annual Global Fleet & MRO Market Report, produced
by Oliver Wyman, found the active global air
carrier fleet is almost back to pre-pandemic levels
and in North America it is larger than in 2019.
Passenger demand is expected to recover fully by
2024, with aircraft utilization rising steadily. These
factors, combined with several years of limited
airframe deliveries, which kept average fleet ages
high despite retirements of older aircraft - will drive
maintenance demand for the decade: The market
is expected to grow by a rate just shy of 3 percent
through the 2030s.
Of course, nobody can completely predict the
future. In 2020, ARSA members responding to that
year's member survey in February and early March
were recognizably bullish about the future...just
weeks before a global shutdown led to an unprecedented
downturn. Past " sensitivity analyses " by
Oliver Wyman had projected the maintenance
market would be particularly resilient in the face of
a " black swan " event...but could never have foreseen
such a dark outcome as parking the majority of the
world's aircraft for months on end.
ARSA's survey shows that future optimism routinely
outstrips the reality of recent experience.
Regardless of how respondents report their companies
have fared in recent years, members are consistently
more likely to predict coming expansion
than to report experiencing it in the past. Even in
the face of that immediate reality and dealing with
considerable challenges including maintenance data
availability, workforce development, and international
politics, the typical aviation professional always
sees clear skies ahead.
Tapping into that spirit is worth more than a pickme-up.
It's a mechanism to help bring good things to
pass. Seeing growth ahead can guide how we solve
current problems, attract new talent, and perceive
new markets. Does anyone seem more hopeful for the
future than new market entrants like eVTOL firms
and UAS makers?
Expecting growth is fantastic, making it happen
is our responsibility.
By Brett Levanto
Brett Levanto is
vice president of
operations of Obadal,
Filler, MacLeod &
Klein, P.L.C. managing
firm and client
communications
in conjunction with
regulatory and
legislative policy
initiatives. He
provides strategic
and logistical support
for the Aeronautical
Repair Station
Association.
www.AviationPros.com 41
The market
is expected
to grow by a
rate just shy
of 3 percent
through the
2030s.
http://www.AviationPros.com
May/June 2023

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