Fleet Maintenance - 33

MANAGEMENT
the testimonials, you might find that it did
work for that one person in that specific situation. The problem is that the burden of proof
is much higher for a medication used by the
public. Even with the higher burden of proof,
the regulators sometimes get it wrong.

6. Name-calling

Name-calling is a technique to use emotional
arguments as a substitute for rational arguments. People use the name-calling technique
with the intent to incite fears or arouse prejudices. This tactic is used instead of logical
arguments based on evidence or experience.
This technique is widely used in politics. Namecalling by one political candidate can be used
to invoke fear in an opponent or others.

7. The fallacy of the
single cause

"What was the cause of this?" Such language
implies that there is one cause when instead,
there were probably many causes. Even the
phrase "root cause analysis" encourages the
idea that there is one cause that is the root of
the problem.
Of course, we are looking for the cause that
gives us the most leverage, the least effort, and
the most significant impact. This is not the root
cause, but the cause we can eliminate or mitigate with the least effort.

8. Regression fallacy

If we assume some attribute is randomly distributed in any population, then the

"'What was the
cause of this?'
Such language
implies that there
is one cause when
instead, there
were probably
many causes."
Joel Levitt

appearance of outliers would generally be
followed by a regression to the mean for that
population. An example of this is something
called the Sports Illustrated cover jinx. In this
example, an athlete has a great year, better
than their past performance. They then get
selected to appear on the cover of an issue
of Sports Illustrated, and their subsequent
performance regresses toward their previous
performance level.
This regression fallacy follows for all kinds
of results in many fields. The logical flaw is
to make predictions that expect exceptional
results to continue as if they were average;
people are most likely to act when the variance
is at its peak (such as buying a stock). Then,
after results become more regular, they believe
that their action was the cause of the change

when, in fact, it was the normal regression
reasserting itself.

9. Circular cause

The circular cause is where the consequence
of the phenomenon is claimed to be its cause.
There are many real-world examples of
circular cause-and-effect, many of them
constituting virtuous or vicious cycles. Where
the circular cause is a cycle, it is a complex of
events that reinforces itself. A virtuous circle
has favorable results, and a vicious circle has
detrimental consequences.
More jobs cause more money in people's
pockets, which increases consumption, which
requires more production, and thus more
jobs. The expectation of an economic downturn causes people to cut back and spend
less, which reduces demand, which results in
layoffs, which means people have less money
to spend, causing an economic downturn.

10. Third-cause fallacy

In this fallacy, sometimes called the joint
effect, there is a third, invisible factor driving both effects. The famous example is that
a city's ice cream sales are highest when the
rate of drownings in city swimming pools is
highest. To conclude that one was a cause of
the other is spurious. In this case, the invisible third factor could be a heatwave that was
driving the ice cream sales and the increased
pool use (and drowning).
These patterns are all easy to fall into, so it's
important for fleet professionals to keep them
in mind in order to remain unbiased and make
logical decisions.

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August 2020 | VehicleServicePros.com

33


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Fleet Maintenance

Table of Contents for the Digital Edition of Fleet Maintenance

Uptime: Wireless Data and the Future of Right to Repair
Editor's Note: Information Overload
Vehicles: Considerations for Winterizing Vehicles
In The Bay: Repair Information Resources to Help Drive Technician Productivity
Shop Operations: Extensive Service Networks to Improve Vehicle Uptime
Keeping Up with EGR Systems
The Lowdown on Grease
Management: Guard Against Mental Fallacies
Diagnostics: Scope Diagnostics Brings Heavy Duty Electrical Issues Into Focus
Training: ASE Entry-Level Certification
Fleet Parts & Components
Tools & Equipment
Classifieds
Guest Editorial: Considerations When Upgrading Vehicles to Steerable Lift Axles
Fleet Maintenance - 1
Fleet Maintenance - 2
Fleet Maintenance - 3
Fleet Maintenance - 4
Fleet Maintenance - 5
Fleet Maintenance - 6
Fleet Maintenance - 7
Fleet Maintenance - Uptime: Wireless Data and the Future of Right to Repair
Fleet Maintenance - 9
Fleet Maintenance - Editor's Note: Information Overload
Fleet Maintenance - 11
Fleet Maintenance - Vehicles: Considerations for Winterizing Vehicles
Fleet Maintenance - 13
Fleet Maintenance - 14
Fleet Maintenance - 15
Fleet Maintenance - 16
Fleet Maintenance - 17
Fleet Maintenance - In The Bay: Repair Information Resources to Help Drive Technician Productivity
Fleet Maintenance - 19
Fleet Maintenance - 20
Fleet Maintenance - 21
Fleet Maintenance - 22
Fleet Maintenance - 23
Fleet Maintenance - Shop Operations: Extensive Service Networks to Improve Vehicle Uptime
Fleet Maintenance - 25
Fleet Maintenance - 26
Fleet Maintenance - 27
Fleet Maintenance - Keeping Up with EGR Systems
Fleet Maintenance - 29
Fleet Maintenance - The Lowdown on Grease
Fleet Maintenance - 31
Fleet Maintenance - Management: Guard Against Mental Fallacies
Fleet Maintenance - 33
Fleet Maintenance - Diagnostics: Scope Diagnostics Brings Heavy Duty Electrical Issues Into Focus
Fleet Maintenance - 35
Fleet Maintenance - Training: ASE Entry-Level Certification
Fleet Maintenance - 37
Fleet Maintenance - Fleet Parts & Components
Fleet Maintenance - 39
Fleet Maintenance - 40
Fleet Maintenance - Tools & Equipment
Fleet Maintenance - 42
Fleet Maintenance - 43
Fleet Maintenance - 44
Fleet Maintenance - Classifieds
Fleet Maintenance - Guest Editorial: Considerations When Upgrading Vehicles to Steerable Lift Axles
Fleet Maintenance - 47
Fleet Maintenance - 48
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https://www.nxtbook.com/endeavor/fleetmaintenance/march2019
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