december2021 - 24

2022 Fleet Maintenance Purchasing Report
Class 8
Classes
4-7
Classes
1-3
Batteries/alternators/starters
1-3
months
50%
4-6
months
10.5%
10%
16%
15.8%
7-12
months
12.9%
14%
No
purchase
plans
3.9%
11.4%
20%
in 2021 after declining by 8.9% in
2020. The comprehensive report
tracked over 800 truck, tractor,
and trailer components across
Classes 6-8 and several vocations
and fleet sizes. Next year, MacKay
expects a 7% increase.
As far as the parts shortage goes, semiconductors
best represent the struggles. Along
with the shocks of COVID shutdowns, there is just
too much demand for chips in the automotive and
consumer electronics space and not enough to go
around due to the small amount of companies who
make them.
And with freight rates so high, fleets want to
buy more trucks, but they can't, because they are
parked near the plant awaiting chips. Kenny Vieth,
ACT Research president and senior analyst, said
the shortage could " hobble the industry well into
2022-and perhaps even beyond. "
SEMI, the sector's trade association, forecasted
that two dozen 300 mm chip fabrication plants
would open up between the beginning of 2021
and end of 2022.
" We're using semiconductors as a catch all,
primarily because semiconductors just go into
so many parts, " he told Fleet Maintenance. " One
only has to look at steel or aluminum or other
commodity prices to recognize that it's not just
a semiconductor issue. And the problems aren't
just U.S. problems or North American problems,
but really global problems. "
In September, steel reached peak prices before
dropping 8% in October, according to Ake.
Meanwhile, aluminum prices spiked above $3,100
per ton on October 18 before falling to around
24 Fleet Maintenance | December 2021
$2,700 per ton on November 11, based on Markets
Insider data.
Hendrickson's Rence Oliphant commented that
steel, which the OE uses for springs and other
suspension parts, " has basically tripled or quadrupled
since the start of the year. " Hendrickson
sources its steel from North America, which has
circumvented some of the port issues.
" We don't rely on the overseas [steel suppliers]
and quite frankly, that's helped us and it's hurt
our competition, " Oliphant said. " You look at all
those ships off the Port of Long Beach right now.
We've got drums and hubs sitting there waiting
to come on shore-nobody's transporting them
in. So, I think everybody's had a wake-up call
here that you can't be single source; you've got
to have different locations. "
" Right now, there's a
145,000-unit [Classes
5-7] backlog. In March,
it was a 99,000unit
backlog. That's
8,000 units a month
in backlog growth. "
Kenny Vieth, ACT Research President
7-12
months
4-6
months
7.9%
10%
10%
9.2%
10%
12%
No
purchase
plans
3.9%
7.1%
24%
This isn't the first tight spot the U.S. has found
itself in, and as bad as things appear, they are not
WW II bad.
" I'm optimistic about the future because these
things will ultimately sort themselves out, "
offered Vieth, finishing with an Alan Greenspan,
quote: " The law of supply and demand has not
been repealed. "
Backlog to the future:
The truckbuilder corner
" Demand is just through the roof; now we're
trying to figure out supply, " ACT Research's Vieth
said. He said factories " swimming in inventory "
are laying off workers, and when the plant
needs labor again, it will be difficult to find it.
Backlogs are also mounting, like rising waters
behind an old dam.
Citing ACT Research data going back to the
1980s, Vieth said the medium-duty backlog is
the highest it has ever been. For September 2021,
the Classes 5-7 backlog (trucks, buses, RVs) was
at 145,200 units. Compare that to the previous
peak, the pre-buy cycle prior to the 2007 emissions
standards went into effect, when medium-duty
backlog was at 101,500 units.
" The last four months, the industry has been
building about 19,000 trucks a month, and the
order rate has been 27,000 trucks a month, " Vieth
said. " Right now, there's a 145,000-unit backlog. In
March, it was a 99,000-unit backlog. That's 8,000
units a month in backlog growth. "
The medium-duty backlog-to-build ratio,
the time it takes clear the current backlog, is
Brakes and brake parts
69.7%
65.7%
78.9%
1-3
months
54%
72.9%
december2021

Table of Contents for the Digital Edition of december2021
