July_2021 - 36

MANAGEMENT
» Solutions to problems are more reliable
when we understand the underlying cause.
68325661 | Krolone | Dreamstime.com
Unlike complicated repairs, following all the
rules does not ensure success.
The solutions to complicated problems don't
work as well with complex issues, however.
Complex problems involve too many
unknowns and too many interrelated factors
to reduce to rules and processes. A technological
disruption like blockchain is a complex
problem. A competitor with an innovative business
model-such as Uber or an Airbnb-is a
complex problem. No algorithm can determine
how to respond.
We can ignore this problem as an exercise
in semantics, except for one point. Rick Nason,
associate professor of finance at Rowe School
Complex versus
complicated maintenance
Vehicle service and repair can be broken down into two categories:
that which can be reliably resolved, and that which cannot.
Knowing when something is going to fail
seems impossible, though predictive maintenance
vendors often tout the effectiveness
of their technology. Onboard computers can
notify the fleet when it is time to replace a
component, calculating when a failure is likely
to occur.
In reality, however, many failures are not
related to wear or aging, so how can we know
what is going to happen and when? This discussion
leads into the sales pitches for artificial
intelligence (AI). Will we reach a point where
there is so much data that we reliably can
predict the future?
People have been thinking about these issues
for more than 80 years. There is a distinction in
management called " complex versus complicated. "
In a thesaurus, they are synonyms, but in
real life, they are used differently. To confuse
the two terms could be disastrous or-at the
very least-a waste of money.
For these two terms, the dictionary is useless.
Complicated: (adjective) consisting of many
interconnecting parts or elements; intricate.
Complexity: (noun) the state or quality of being
intricate or complicated.
A more helpful definition of the two related
concepts can be found when looking at systems.
Complicated System: Exhibits linear behavior
and is predictable. It is equal to the sum of its parts.
Many machines and all modern trucks are
complicated. We can study them and learn the
rules and eventually understand how they
work. Some failure is complicated. We must
follow the rules to avoid failure.
Complicated problems can be hard to solve,
but they are addressable with rules and recipes,
like the algorithms that place ads on a Twitter
feed. They can also be resolved with systems
and processes, like the hierarchical structure
that most companies use to command and
control employees.
Complex System: Exhibits non-linear re sponses,
unpredictable behavior to inputs.
The systems respond to positive and negaBy
Joel Levitt
PRESIDENT, SPRINGFIELD RESOURCES
Joel Levitt is the president of Springfield Resources, a
management consulting firm that services a variety of
clients on a wide range of maintenance issues. Levitt
has trained more than 17,000 maintenance leaders from
more than 3,000 organizations in 38 countries. He is also
the creator of Laser-Focused Training, a flexible training
program that provides specific, targeted training on your
schedule, online to one to 250 people in maintenance
management, asset management, and reliability.
tive feedback with spontaneous emergence.
Complex systems cannot be adequately
described by analyzing the components alone.
There are many aspects to fleet maintenance
that are complex, and applying rules of thumb,
following recipes, or just using algorithms will
not always work. Think about the complexities
of supervision or of changing a maintenance
strategy. It may be possible to follow the
book, but two companies following the same
book could end up in entirely different places.
36 Fleet Maintenance | July 2021
of Business in Nova Scotia, wrote in his book,
" It's Not Complicated: The Art and Science of
Complexity in Business, " that when facing
a problem, managers tend to automatically
default to complicated thinking. Instead, they
should be " consciously managing complexity, "
Nason explained.
Consciously managing complexity in a
business context is broadly a function of four
different strategies or tactics, he said. They are:
ÜRecognize which type of system you are
dealing with.
ÜThink " manage, not solve. "
ÜEmploy a " try, learn, and adapt " operating
strategy.
ÜDevelop a complexity mindset.
If we get back to complexity for failure
prediction, I hope we are on the brink of
making the complexity merely complicated.
Is it possible that complexity means you don't
understand the system?
It may be possible to
follow the book, but two
companies following
the same book could
end up in entirely
different places.
Just over 100 years ago, there were several
" cures " for common bacterial illnesses. The
illnesses acted like a complex system where
the outcome was not a given. People were given
various cures, many of which were poisons
that worked much like chemotherapy today.
They didn't work reliably until the underlying
causation (i.e., bacteria) was understood, and
a way to attack them directly (i.e., antibiotics)
was developed.
We can look at maintaining a fleet in much
the same way. Solutions to various problems
work more reliably when we fully understand
the underlying cause.
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July_2021

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