Water Resources - IMPACT - January 2018 - 9

NOAA Office of Water Prediction web application showing short and medium range forecasts for the Ohio River at Paducah, KY, as well as
forecasted flow of nearby streams shown in the map to the left. www.water.noaa.gov/map

with NCAR and a partnership with the
Consortium for the Advancement of
Hydrologic Sciences, Inc. (CUAHSI), the
National Science Foundation (NSF), and
Federal Integrated Water Resources Science
and Services (IWRSS) partners. Version
1.0 of the NWM provides a foundation that
supports out-year growth in operational
hydrologic forecasting capability.
Goals achieved by NWM version
1.0 include:
* Forecasted streamflow guidance for
underserved locations;
* Spatially continuous national estimates
of hydrologic states (soil moisture, snow
pack, etc.);
* Seamless and real-time hydrologic
products within an advanced geospatial
intelligence framework;
* A modeling architecture that permits
rapid infusion of new data, science
and technology.
Version 1.1 of the NWM was
implemented in Spring 2017, and subsequent
versions of the NWM are planned to be
implemented on an annual basis beginning
in Fall 2017.
The NWM represents NOAA's first
foray into high performance computing
for water prediction and expands NOAA's
current water quantity forecasts, from
approximately 4,000 USGS stream gage sites
across the country, to forecasts of flow at
2.7 million stream reaches nationwide. This
new NWM guidance augments and supports
the generation of official forecasts at NWS
River Forecast Centers. NWM output also
includes spatially-continuous forecasts of
soil moisture, evapotranspiration, runoff,
snow water equivalent and other components
of the water cycle. A subset of this new
guidance is being provided to River Forecast

Centers and other field offices, along with
guidance for evaluation and validation,
and tools to visualize these data. Initial
NWM guidance available via NOAA's
Office of Water Prediction (OWP) website
includes streamflow, streamflow anomaly
and soil saturation (http://water.noaa.
gov/map and http://water.noaa.gov/tools/
nwm-image-viewer). The full output of the
NWM simulations is available via the NOAA
Operational Model Archive and Distribution
System (NOMADS). Over time, continued
NWM enhancements will improve NWS'
ability to deliver impact-based decision
support services nationwide through the
provision of short through extended range,
high fidelity "street level" water forecasts
and warnings.
Early evaluation of the model at
validation locations nationwide indicates
promising skill, particularly in unregulated
areas (natural flow). In addition, initial case
studies have demonstrated valuable forecast
skill at current Advanced Hydrologic
Prediction Service (AHPS) locations and
in areas lacking stream gage observations
and AHPS forecasts. Although these early
results are promising, significant model
development and validation remains to be
done over the next several years. Planned
out-year enhancements to the NWM include:
* the assimilation of anthropogenic water
management data,
* the incorporation of enhanced forcings,
* the provision of real-time flood forecast
inundation maps,
* an operational nest to provide higher
resolution forecasts needed to account for
the built-environment in urban areas,
* two-way coupling of the NWM with
coastal estuary models for "total water
level" forecasts in coastal zones,

* coupling with advanced groundwater
models to improve forecasts of low flow and
drought, and
* tackling deeper challenges associated with
water quality. 
Perhaps most significant of all planned
enhancements, NWM version 2.0, which
is planned to be implemented in Fall 2018,
will represent a major step forward in the
engagement of the broad development,
academic and research communities.
The NWM code will be modularized,
i.e. organized into a series of callable
libraries, so that community members can
bring individual modules into their own
development environments, make suggested
improvements to the code, and submit the
improved code to NOAA for evaluation and
possible inclusion into the next operational
version of the NWM. Though plans have not
been finalized, NOAA anticipates making the
NWM available for community development
in the Fall of 2019. ■
Thomas Graziano is the director of the National
Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration/
National Weather Service's (NWS) Office of
Water Prediction (OWP). He has held numerous
leadership roles in over 30 years of federal
service, including over 14 years in NWS hydrology
and water resources services. Contact: thomas.
graziano@noaa.gov

Coauthors:
Brian Cosgrove, NOAA/NWS Office of Water
Prediction, brian.cosgrove@noaa.gov
Fernando R. Salas, UCAR/UCP, fernando.
salas@noaa.gov
Edward P. Clark, NOAA/NWS National
Water Center, edward.clark@noaa.gov
Trey Flowers, NOAA/NWS Office of Water
Prediction, trey.flowers@noaa.gov
Volume 20 * Number 1 www.awra.org * 9


http://www.water.noaa.gov/map http://www.water.noaa.gov/map http://www.water.noaa.gov/map http://water.noaa.gov/tools/nwm-image-viewer http://water.noaa.gov/tools/nwm-image-viewer http://www.awra.org

Table of Contents for the Digital Edition of Water Resources - IMPACT - January 2018

President’s Message
The National Water Model Vision
Transforming NOAA Water Prediction: The New National Water Model
Perspectives on the National Water Model
FloodCast: A Framework for Enhanced Flood Event Decision Making for Transportation Resilience
Hurricane Harvey and the National Water Model
Contributions of the Academic Community in Advancing the National Water Model
Turning on the Faucet: Making National Water Model Data Flow
The New Economics of Water: Balancing Urban and Agricultural Water Needs on Colorado’s Front Range
What’s Up with Water: United We Stand, Divided We Fall: States Rights and WOTUS Rule
International Conference Recap
AWRA State Section and Student Chapter News
December JAWRA Highlights
In Memoriam: Ari Michelsen
2018-2019 Richard A. Herbert Memorial Scholarship Opportunities
AWRA Board of Directors 2018 Call for Nominations
Water Resources - IMPACT - January 2018 - Intro
Water Resources - IMPACT - January 2018 - cover1
Water Resources - IMPACT - January 2018 - cover2
Water Resources - IMPACT - January 2018 - 3
Water Resources - IMPACT - January 2018 - 4
Water Resources - IMPACT - January 2018 - President’s Message
Water Resources - IMPACT - January 2018 - The National Water Model Vision
Water Resources - IMPACT - January 2018 - 7
Water Resources - IMPACT - January 2018 - Transforming NOAA Water Prediction: The New National Water Model
Water Resources - IMPACT - January 2018 - 9
Water Resources - IMPACT - January 2018 - Perspectives on the National Water Model
Water Resources - IMPACT - January 2018 - 11
Water Resources - IMPACT - January 2018 - FloodCast: A Framework for Enhanced Flood Event Decision Making for Transportation Resilience
Water Resources - IMPACT - January 2018 - 13
Water Resources - IMPACT - January 2018 - Hurricane Harvey and the National Water Model
Water Resources - IMPACT - January 2018 - 15
Water Resources - IMPACT - January 2018 - 16
Water Resources - IMPACT - January 2018 - Contributions of the Academic Community in Advancing the National Water Model
Water Resources - IMPACT - January 2018 - 18
Water Resources - IMPACT - January 2018 - Turning on the Faucet: Making National Water Model Data Flow
Water Resources - IMPACT - January 2018 - 20
Water Resources - IMPACT - January 2018 - The New Economics of Water: Balancing Urban and Agricultural Water Needs on Colorado’s Front Range
Water Resources - IMPACT - January 2018 - What’s Up with Water: United We Stand, Divided We Fall: States Rights and WOTUS Rule
Water Resources - IMPACT - January 2018 - 23
Water Resources - IMPACT - January 2018 - 24
Water Resources - IMPACT - January 2018 - International Conference Recap
Water Resources - IMPACT - January 2018 - AWRA State Section and Student Chapter News
Water Resources - IMPACT - January 2018 - December JAWRA Highlights
Water Resources - IMPACT - January 2018 - In Memoriam: Ari Michelsen
Water Resources - IMPACT - January 2018 - 2018-2019 Richard A. Herbert Memorial Scholarship Opportunities
Water Resources - IMPACT - January 2018 - AWRA Board of Directors 2018 Call for Nominations
Water Resources - IMPACT - January 2018 - cover3
Water Resources - IMPACT - January 2018 - cover4
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