ABA Banking Journal - September/October 2017 - 13

Bank Economists
Forecast Moderate
Growth Through
2018

New ABA Data Finds Mortgage
Borrowers Seek Technology
and In-Person Services

The U.S. economy will continue to expand, with
growth in 2017 forecast to just above 2 percent,
according to recent analysis from ABA's Economic
Advisory Committee. Committee members-which
include 15 chief economists at some of the nation's
largest banks-say they expect growth in 2018 to
slightly accelerate with support from fiscal stimulus.
"The forces that have sustained eight years
of progress, such as low interest rates and
improvements in labor markets, will continue into the
next year," comments EAC Chairman Christopher
Probyn, managing director and chief economist at
State Street Global Advisors. "Moreover, business
and personal tax cuts, along with an increase in
infrastructure spending, should boost the economy."
The U.S. economy is already at or near full
employment, the economists noted, adding that they
expect job growth to taper progressively through
2018, with unemployment potentially dropping to
4 percent or lower by the end of 2018. In addition to
fiscal stimulus, consumer spending and a pickup in
business capital spending will likely sustain growth
projections, though Probyn adds that "the extent of
the improvement in 2018 will depend largely on the
size and composition of fiscal stimulus."
Committee members say they anticipate the Federal
Reserve to raise its federal funds target range again
in 2017 (the consensus is December) and three
times in 2018. A combination of fiscal stimulus,
faster growth and accelerating inflation could lead
the Fed to move more aggressively, Probyn explains.
The committee also observed sustained strength
in the availability of bank loans. Delinquency and
charge-off rates will remain near historical lows,
they say. Bank consumer credit is expected to
grow 5.7 percent this year and 5.0 percent next
year, while business credit will rise 3.5 percent in
2017 and 4.2 percent in 2018. "Banks are in an
excellent position to support continued expansion,"
Probyn adds.

"Banks invest billions of dollars to offer their customers the latest
technology. But at the end of the day, nothing compares to sitting
across the table, face-to-face with a banker when you're making the
single most important investment of your life."
-ABA EVP Bob Davis
aba.com/BankingJournal | ABA BANKING JOURNAL

13


http://www.aba.com/BankingJournal

Table of Contents for the Digital Edition of ABA Banking Journal - September/October 2017

CHAIRMAN’S VIEW
UPFRONT
PICTURE THIS
LEGAL BRIEFS
POWER UP PROFILE
THE TOP FINTECH TRENDS DRIVING THE NEXT DECADE
PLUG AND PLAY: FOUR WAYS TO LEVEL UP YOUR MOBILE BANKING APP
MAKING FRIENDS WITH FINTECH
LOOKING AT FINTECH THROUGH THE LEGISLATIVE LENS
LET’S TALK PAYMENTS
IS OUTSOURCING IT SECURITY RIGHT FOR YOUR BANK?
THE CECL RIPPLE EFFECT
FROM YOUNG AMERICANS TO ENTREPRENEURIAL CITIZENS
FINDING THE PERFECT NICHE
THREE ELEMENTS OF BANK LEADERSHIP
REAL ESTATE LENDING
ABA COMPLIANCE CENTER INBOX
WEALTH MANAGEMENT
FROM THE STATES
CORPORATE SOCIAL RESPONSIBILITY
INDEX OF ADVERTISERS
FROM THE VAULT
ABA Banking Journal - September/October 2017 - Intro
ABA Banking Journal - September/October 2017 - bellyband1
ABA Banking Journal - September/October 2017 - bellyband2
ABA Banking Journal - September/October 2017 - cover1
ABA Banking Journal - September/October 2017 - cover2
ABA Banking Journal - September/October 2017 - 3
ABA Banking Journal - September/October 2017 - 4
ABA Banking Journal - September/October 2017 - 5
ABA Banking Journal - September/October 2017 - 6
ABA Banking Journal - September/October 2017 - 7
ABA Banking Journal - September/October 2017 - CHAIRMAN’S VIEW
ABA Banking Journal - September/October 2017 - 9
ABA Banking Journal - September/October 2017 - 10
ABA Banking Journal - September/October 2017 - UPFRONT
ABA Banking Journal - September/October 2017 - 12
ABA Banking Journal - September/October 2017 - 13
ABA Banking Journal - September/October 2017 - 14
ABA Banking Journal - September/October 2017 - 15
ABA Banking Journal - September/October 2017 - PICTURE THIS
ABA Banking Journal - September/October 2017 - 17
ABA Banking Journal - September/October 2017 - LEGAL BRIEFS
ABA Banking Journal - September/October 2017 - 19
ABA Banking Journal - September/October 2017 - POWER UP PROFILE
ABA Banking Journal - September/October 2017 - 21
ABA Banking Journal - September/October 2017 - THE TOP FINTECH TRENDS DRIVING THE NEXT DECADE
ABA Banking Journal - September/October 2017 - 23
ABA Banking Journal - September/October 2017 - 24
ABA Banking Journal - September/October 2017 - 25
ABA Banking Journal - September/October 2017 - 26
ABA Banking Journal - September/October 2017 - 27
ABA Banking Journal - September/October 2017 - PLUG AND PLAY: FOUR WAYS TO LEVEL UP YOUR MOBILE BANKING APP
ABA Banking Journal - September/October 2017 - 29
ABA Banking Journal - September/October 2017 - 30
ABA Banking Journal - September/October 2017 - 31
ABA Banking Journal - September/October 2017 - MAKING FRIENDS WITH FINTECH
ABA Banking Journal - September/October 2017 - 33
ABA Banking Journal - September/October 2017 - LOOKING AT FINTECH THROUGH THE LEGISLATIVE LENS
ABA Banking Journal - September/October 2017 - 35
ABA Banking Journal - September/October 2017 - LET’S TALK PAYMENTS
ABA Banking Journal - September/October 2017 - 37
ABA Banking Journal - September/October 2017 - 38
ABA Banking Journal - September/October 2017 - IS OUTSOURCING IT SECURITY RIGHT FOR YOUR BANK?
ABA Banking Journal - September/October 2017 - THE CECL RIPPLE EFFECT
ABA Banking Journal - September/October 2017 - 41
ABA Banking Journal - September/October 2017 - 42
ABA Banking Journal - September/October 2017 - FROM YOUNG AMERICANS TO ENTREPRENEURIAL CITIZENS
ABA Banking Journal - September/October 2017 - 44
ABA Banking Journal - September/October 2017 - 45
ABA Banking Journal - September/October 2017 - 46
ABA Banking Journal - September/October 2017 - FINDING THE PERFECT NICHE
ABA Banking Journal - September/October 2017 - 48
ABA Banking Journal - September/October 2017 - 49
ABA Banking Journal - September/October 2017 - 50
ABA Banking Journal - September/October 2017 - THREE ELEMENTS OF BANK LEADERSHIP
ABA Banking Journal - September/October 2017 - 52
ABA Banking Journal - September/October 2017 - 53
ABA Banking Journal - September/October 2017 - REAL ESTATE LENDING
ABA Banking Journal - September/October 2017 - 55
ABA Banking Journal - September/October 2017 - 56
ABA Banking Journal - September/October 2017 - 57
ABA Banking Journal - September/October 2017 - 58
ABA Banking Journal - September/October 2017 - 59
ABA Banking Journal - September/October 2017 - ABA COMPLIANCE CENTER INBOX
ABA Banking Journal - September/October 2017 - 61
ABA Banking Journal - September/October 2017 - WEALTH MANAGEMENT
ABA Banking Journal - September/October 2017 - FROM THE STATES
ABA Banking Journal - September/October 2017 - CORPORATE SOCIAL RESPONSIBILITY
ABA Banking Journal - September/October 2017 - INDEX OF ADVERTISERS
ABA Banking Journal - September/October 2017 - FROM THE VAULT
ABA Banking Journal - September/October 2017 - cover3
ABA Banking Journal - September/October 2017 - cover4
ABA Banking Journal - September/October 2017 - outsert1
ABA Banking Journal - September/October 2017 - outsert2
ABA Banking Journal - September/October 2017 - outsert3
ABA Banking Journal - September/October 2017 - outsert4
ABA Banking Journal - September/October 2017 - outsert5
ABA Banking Journal - September/October 2017 - outsert6
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