The MHEDA Journal - First Quarter, 2015 - (Page 67)
MAPI Economic Forecast:
Investment Spending Will Drive Growth
BY THE MAPI FOUNDATION. REPRINTED WITH PERMISSION FROM MAPI
anufacturing production continues to outpace
overall economic growth and will be led more by
investment than by consumer-driven advances
over the next 18 months, according to a new report.
The Manufacturers Alliance for
Productivity and Innovation (MAPI)
Quarterly Economic Forecast predicts
that inflation-adjusted gross domestic
product will expand 2.5% in 2014 and
3.2% in 2015. The former is a decrease
from 2.8% and the latter equal to the
3.2% from MAPI's March 2014 report.
Manufacturing production is
expected to fare better, with anticipated
growth of 3.2% in 2014 and 4.0% in 2015,
consistent with the previous report.
"While consumer-driven manufacturing will grow at a consistently
moderate rate, the industries driven
by investment will grow at a higher
rate," predicted MAPI Chief Economist
Daniel J. Meckstroth, Ph.D. "Energy
infrastructure and manufacturing machinery will see increases as
firms replace and expand equipment.
Aerospace will also experience a big
ramp-up in production. In addition,
there will be growth in the construction supply chain - HVAC, wood,
paint, appliances, and furniture - as
we anticipate both residential and
nonresidential increases. The acceleration driver will be investment."
Production in non-high-tech manufacturing industries is expected to
increase 2.9% in 2014 and 3.7% in
2015. High-tech manufacturing production, which accounts for approximately 5% of all manufacturing, is
anticipated to grow 6.6% in 2014 and
10.0% in 2015.
The forecast for inflation-adjusted
investment in equipment is for growth
of 5.2% in 2014 and 10.3% in 2015.
Capital equipment spending in hightech sectors will also rise. Inflationadjusted expenditures for information
processing equipment are anticipated
to increase 2.7% in 2014 and a strong
14.6% in 2015.
MAPI expects industrial equipment
expenditures to advance 8.1% in 2014
and 10.8% in 2015. The outlook for
"We anticipate 1.03 million
housing starts in 2014
and 1.40 million starts in
2015," Meckstroth said.
will finally approach its
peak by the end of 2014."
spending on transportation equipment
is for growth of 5.6% in 2014 and 3.9%
Spending on nonresidential structures is anticipated to improve by
4.2% in 2014 and by 5.1% in 2015.
Residential fixed investment is forecast to increase by 4.1% this year and
a robust 19.9% in 2015.
"We anticipate 1.03 million housing starts in 2014 and 1.40 million
starts in 2015," Meckstroth said.
"Manufacturing production will
finally approach its 2008-2009 prerecession peak by the end of 2014."
Inflation-adjusted exports are anticipated to increase 3.0% in 2014 and
5.1% in 2015. Imports are expected to
grow 2.1% in 2014 and 6.8% in 2015.
MAPI forecasts overall unemployment
to average 6.4% in 2014 and drop to
5.9% in 2015.
The outlook is for an increase of
158,000 manufacturing jobs in 2014,
a decline from the anticipated 356,000
jobs in the March forecast, but increasing to 212,000 jobs in 2015, an increase
from 197,000 jobs in the previous report.
The refiners' acquisition cost per
barrel of imported crude oil is expected
to average $95.90 in 2014 and $93.60
MAPI, founded in 1933, contributes to
the competitiveness of U.S. manufacturing by providing economic research,
professional development, and an independent, expert source of manufacturing information.
The MHEDA Journal | First Quar ter 2 015
Table of Contents for the Digital Edition of The MHEDA Journal - First Quarter, 2015
MHEDA’s 2015 Board of Directors and Mboa
Lift Atlanta, Inc
Sara Mcmurray, Flow-Rite Controls
Confident Supplier/associate Members Ready for Continued Growth in 2015
MHI Predicts 8-9% Growth for 2015
CEMA Expects Growth
Continued Stability in the Market
Investment Spending Will Drive Growth
What in the World Is Going On?
Quality Lift Trucks Undergoes a Major Succession and Transition Plan
The MHEDA Journal - First Quarter, 2015