IIE Network - Fall 2013 - (Page 11)
FEATURE: MEGATRENDS
Megatrends: Predicting the Future of International Education
By Elizabeth Shepherd
THE FUTURE IS difficult to predict with
any degree of certainty, but forecasting
mechanisms are popular across many sectors,
international education being one. Retaining
confidence in your chosen measurement and
conviction that your hypothesis will be airtight as the unknown unfolds is the greatest challenge. Forecasting models that we
have developed in the past have been proven
wrong, in some cases very wrong, when
things happen that are outside the parameters
of those defined criteria. Our original models
looked at how economics and demographics
come together to impact international higher
education’s future growth. Yet as the natural
unpredictability of human interaction arose,
when mathematics could not account for all
possibilities, these models proved they were
not airtight.
The Copenhagen Institute for Future
Studies describes megatrends as great
forces in societal development that will
affect all areas of general human growth
and progress in years to come. These long
term driving forces, or megatrends, have
great importance now and there is confidence they will have great importance in
the future. Apply this conceptual strategy of
future planning to the world’s international
education industry and what megatrends
can be identified here?
Since our first attempts at developing
an international higher education forecasting model, we have been refining the list of
core drivers that we believe will have a profound effect on the direction and growth of
international higher education in the future.
Although not an exhaustive or complete list,
we have identified seven megatrends.
1. Demographic Shifts
The world population’s current rate of
aging is unprecedented throughout human
history1 to date. Examples from developed
economies allow us to understand more
immediately the consequences of people
growing older and living longer and the
profound effect this will have on societal
development. Converse to the increasing
age of the world’s population is the growth
in emerging and developing economies,
particularly in India, the Middle East and
North Africa, of younger populations. Add
to this the increasing and rapid urbanization of many global regions from populations seeking better access to health care
and education opportunities, and we add
a further layer of complexity to the shifts
in global demographics that are predicted
to impact demand for and access to education for the changing needs of the world’s
changing population.
3. Changes to Political Conditions
Introduction of new policies and legislation,
political reform agendas and increasing
political tensions are regular and recurring
across many nations’ political systems and
can have a profound effect on national and
international education provision. Most
remarkable are changes to immigration
policy, as seen in changes made to student
visa criteria in the UK and Australia in
2010-2012. New legislation, for example the
Foreign Education Providers bill in India, if
passed will create unprecedented opportunities for providers of transnational education
in the soon to be most populous country.
The political reform seen most recently
in Myanmar has prompted the government there to seek assistance from global
partners to help them reform their higher
education system. This again provides
huge opportunity for growth and change,
influence and restructure in a region that
will only increase in importance in the
future. Rising political tensions, recently
for example between China and Japan and
witnessed internally in Turkey, have and
perhaps will cause shifts in regular patterns
of student flows, reportedly to be potentially
reducing and increasing student mobility in
each case respectively.
2. Economic Dynamics
Reports from economic analysts in the second quarter of 2013 suggest that the global
economy is now slowly healing, led by the
strengthening of the U.S. job market and
China’s recovery from its earlier slowdown
in GDP growth. The previously strong BRIC
economies that gained so much attention
since the height of their growth in 2010
have since slowed too, shifting the focus
to CIVETS (Colombia, Indonesia, Vietnam,
Egypt, Turkey and South Africa), a group
of emerging economies that are forecast to
become increasingly important into 2014 and
beyond. As these consumer markets grow,
will the demand for education services for
the newly wealthy increase?
4. Growth in Education Provision
As emerging economies develop, greater
emphasis is placed upon education to aid
progress, empowering individuals and
acting as a catalyst for further economic
stability. China represents one of the greatest
examples of national education expansion
that the world has ever seen. Now with over
three hundred universities, China has grown
its internal education provision such that
in 2012 China hosted 328,000 international
students from all over the world. The top ten
countries that international students came
from to China were: South Korea, the United
States, Japan, Thailand, Russia, Indonesia,
Vietnam, India, Pakistan and Kazakhstan.
To the world’s international host destination
The Copenhagen
Institute for Future
Studies describes
megatrends as great
forces in societal
development that
will affect all areas of
general human growth
and progress in years
to come.
11
Table of Contents for the Digital Edition of IIE Network - Fall 2013
A Message from Allan E. Goodman
News
Megatrends: Predicting the Future of International Education
Considering Study Abroad’s Past to Prepare for its Future
The Promise of International Education: Building a More Just and Elevated Civil Society
Global Research and Commercialization: An Under-the-Radar Next Big Thing
Clustering Innovation and Industry: New Opportunities for Europe
Connecting the Dots: Integrating Engagement with International Stakeholders
The Rise of Real-time, Online International Recruitment
Hold on to Your Hats, MOOCs... Here Come the TOQUES!
The Global Youth Engagement Platform: A Peace Corps for the 21st Century
Growing Globally Competent Students to Achieve True Internationalization
Beyond Ourselves: Embracing Our Global Responsibilities
India: Expansion, Equity, Excellence
The Growing World of Collaborative Internationalization: Taking Partnerships to the Next Level
From Multi-national Universities to Education Hubs to Edu-glomerates?
Advertisers Index
Beyond the Numbers: The Who, How and What of Global Student Mobility
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