Jetrader - Summer 2015 - 21

Table 1 - Top 10 Scheduled B787 Routes Summer 2015
Airline

Origin

Destination

Number of Flights - Summer 2015

1

All Nippon Airways

Tokyo - Haneda

Bangkok

420

2

All Nippon Airways

Tokyo - Haneda

Seoul - Gimpo

420

3

Japan Air Lines

Tokyo - Haneda

Seoul - Gimpo

418

4

Qatar Airways

Doha

Johannesburg

300

5

Jetstar Airways

Melbourne

Denpasar

281

6

Kenya Airways

Nairobi

Mumbai

280

7

All Nippon Airways

Tokyo - Haneda

Ishigaki

267

8

Qatar Airways

Doha

Singapore

264

9

LAN Airlines

Santiago

Miami

259

10

Vietnam Airlines

Saigon

Hanoi

244

Source: OAG Schedules Analyser

and improved operating cost. What is clear, is that in all cases,
the market stimulation has been significant, and from current
analysis, sustainable. These routes recorded a combined average
growth of 13 percent (in terms of frequency) over the five years
from 2010 to 2014 with the lowest average growth being 6 percent.
There were two routes that recorded a drop in frequency in 2014
versus 2013 (Nairobi-Mumbai and Santiago-Miami); however,
both these routes saw an increase in capacity.
Taking this one stage further from our schedules and traffic analysis, looking at the past five years, we have analyzed a
selection of 50 new routes in Asia Pacific that have commenced
operation and measured the market size 12 months after the
commencement of the new route.
Most of these routes (70 percent) had an unserved O&D market
size of between 25,000 and 100,000 annual passengers1 in the year
before service commenced and what the above demonstrates is
the stimulation effect of the new service being added. Based on
the trendline, an unserved market of 100,000 would be stimulated
by approximately 25 percent-this is only a sample; however, it
offers an illustration of the level of stimulation that is generated
by introducing a new route.
To place that into context, our analysis indicates that there are
some 1,970 market pairs in Asia Pacific that had an O&D market size
of between 25,000 and 100,000 passengers in 2014. Undoubtedly
in the coming years, even within Asia Pacific alone, we will see
a significant jump in new routes and levels of market stimulation that will both exceed current expectations and support the
planned new aircraft deliveries in the region.
It would seem that from all angles the planned increases in
aircraft orders and scheduled operations are well aligned with
the future market needs of the Asia Pacific region. With China
alone planning to have opened a further 78 airports by the end
of the decade, the supporting infrastructures are being planned
in tandem with the expanded capacity supply. It is equally clear
that with so many potential new and emergent market pairs, the
networks that we see today will be dramatically altered in the
coming years. Hub airports will continue to grow and regional
hubs with niche market flows will emerge in secondary regions
enabling even the smallest of regional markets opportunities
for growth.

Source: OAG Traffic Analyser

Source: OAG Traffic Analyser

With new technology, new markets and large aircraft orders,
Asia really is the dynamo of the aviation industry for the next
decade and beyond, as its potential is finally realized. Perhaps
there will be an Asian successor to the prized title that Dubai has
recently claimed.
For more information, visit: www.oag.com.
1.	 Passenger bookings data taken from OAG Traffic Analyser

Jetrader  *  Summer 2015 21
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Jetrader - Summer 2015

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