Jetrader - Summer 2016 - 46

eight operators worldwide. The firm backlog
for the A330-200F stands at seven aircraft.

Stuart Rubin, Principal,
ICF International,
Certified Appraiser, ISTAT
Tel: +1 (703) 934-3015
Email: stuart.rubin@icfi.com

Market Outlook

Background
Developed to replace the A300-600RF,
the A330-200F is a derivative of the popular A330-200 passenger airliner with which
it shares considerable parts commonality.
The A330-200F was launched in 2007 on the
back of 32 orders from Flyington Freighters,
Intrepid Aviation Group, and Guggenheim
Aviation Partners.
With dynamic operating modes the A330200F can carry 65 tonnes (t) over 4,000 nautical miles (nm), or 70t over 3,200 nm, with
a total useable general freight cargo volume
of 467m3 inclusive of lower holds, placing it
between the Boeing 767-300ERF and 777F in
lift capability. According to operating mode,
the A330-200F maximum take-off weight
(MTOW) varies between 227t and 233t.
Compared to the A330 series passenger
aircraft, the A330-200F has a revised nose
gear with blister fairing to provide a level
cargo deck during loading, and has a versatile
main deck able to carry a wide range of ULD
containers suitable for general freight and
integrator operations.
The in-service A330-200F variant is powered either by the Rolls-Royce Trent 772B60
(31) or the Pratt & Whitney PW4168A (4)
series engines.
A total of 35 A330-200F commercial
freighter aircraft are in active service with

The A330-200F competes in the medium
widebody freighter segment - an active sector that is expected to grow by 400 units over
the next 20 years based on OEM forecasts.
Over half - about 250 units - of this growth
is expected to be from factory-new deliveries
like the A330-200F.
Primary competition to the A330-200F
includes the Boeing 767-300F factory freighter
and converted 767-300/767-300ERs (both
third party and OEM conversions), as well as
fraternal competition from older A300-600
factory converted freighters. As noted above,
the A330-200F has a higher payload than all
of its competitors - the 767-300F factory
freighter will carry a 52.5t payload about
3,255 nm while the 767-300BCF (Boeing
converted freighter) will carry nearly 52t
over 3,300 nm, whereas the A300-600 factory freighter will carry 54t about 4,200 nm.
In terms of market mass both of the Boeing
aircraft have larger operator bases and inservice fleets than the A330-200F - the
767-300F factory freighter and converted
767-300s (including OEM conversion BCFs)
are in active service with 10 operators apiece
and their fleets number 111 and 35 respectively (including nine BCFs). A total of 64
converted A300-600s are in active service
with 13 operators while 103 A300-600 factory freighters are in service with four operators. Within both the factory-built 767-300F
and A330-600F fleets, there is significant
operator concentration with FedEx and UPS
operating 90 percent of these aircraft and

A330-200F Fleet Status
Region
Europe
Asia Pacific
North America
Africa/Middle East
South America
TOTALS

Number of
Operators
2
2
2
2
8

BY S. RAMADIER/
CC BY AIRBUS 2009

appraisal

Airbus A330-200F
Appraisal

Active Fleet
8
9
12
6
35

Parked
Fleet
-

Firm Backlog

In Svc. + Backlog

5
1
1
7

13
9
13
7
42

Source: CAPA - May 2016

FedEx holding all outstanding orders for the
767-300F.
Although worldwide economic conditions
had been steadily, if unevenly improving
through 2015 and into early 2016, the most
recent International Air Transport Association
("IATA") data for global air freight markets
showed the first quarter of 2016 was the weakest for air cargo growth since Q1 2012. Yearover-year growth for the quarter was down
2.1 percent due to declines in Asia-Pacific,
North America, Africa, and Latin America;
falling 5.6 percent, 3.8 percent, 1.6 percent,
and 1.3 percent respectively. The ongoing
softness, combined with the shift of cargo
to the belly capacity of large twins like the
777-300ER - particularly to and from AsiaPacific - has resulted in reduced demand for
large main deck freighters. However demand
for smaller freighters like the A330-200F -
designed to serve regional demand as opposed
to long haul intercontinental routes - is
likely to improve in the future. The recent
investments by Amazon in Atlas Air and ATSG
indicate there is good demand in the sector,
as e-commerce operators attempt to gain
more control over their distribution networks,
although the Boeing 767-300 freighter is the
preferred platform thus far.
To date, despite its range and payload
advantages the A330-200F has not been a
strong performer in terms of demand, with
only 35 in active service and a mere seven
on firm order backlog as of May 2016 - a
poor showing for a type that was first offered
in 2007, a situation not likely to improve as
higher volumetric capacity A330-300 and
potentially 777-200 conversions enter the
market. The operator base is somewhat fragmented, with Qatar and Turkish Airlines flying
eight and seven respectively while Avianca
Cargo and Hong Kong Airlines operate five
each. As of May 2016 none were in storage
and as of April 2016 there were none publicly
available for sale.

Airbus A330-200F Half-Life Appraisal Values (Assumes Rolls-Royce Trent 700 Series Engines)
Year of
Delivery
2016
2015
2014
2013
2012
2011
2010

CMv
US$ Million
2016
$90.0
$84.0
$78.7
$73.7
$68.9
$64.5
$60.3

Bv
US$ Million
2016
$90.0
$85.0
$80.2
$75.6
$71.3
$67.2
$63.3

Future Base values - Inflated at 1.0% per annum
2017
$83.0
$78.1
$74.7
$71.1
$66.9
$63.0
$59.1

2018
$76.1
$72.7
$70.2
$66.7
$62.7
$59.0
$55.0

2019
$70.8
$68.2
$65.8
$62.4
$58.7
$55.1
$51.7

2020
$66.4
$63.9
$61.5
$58.3
$54.8
$51.9
$48.5

2021
$62.1
$59.7
$57.4
$54.4
$51.5
$48.9
$45.5

2022
$58.0
$55.7
$53.5
$51.1
$48.5
$46.0
$42.6

2023
$54.1
$51.8
$50.3
$48.1
$45.6
$43.2
$39.9

Note: Values herein for younger-build aircraft reflect a full-life to half-life maintenance condition transition over the forecast period.

46 The official publication of the International Society of Transport Aircraft Trading

2024
$50.3
$48.7
$47.3
$45.2
$42.9
$40.6
$37.3

2025
$47.3
$45.8
$44.5
$42.5
$40.3
$38.2
$34.8

2026
$44.3
$42.9
$41.7
$39.8
$37.7
$35.7
$32.4
Jetrader - Summer 2016

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