Jetrader - Summer 2017 - 44

appraisal

De-Havilland
Dash 8-300

Oliver Stuart-Menteth
ISTAT Senior Certified Appraiser
Managing Director
Fintech Aviation Services Sarl
Tel: + 41 22 548 1707
oliverstuart@fintech.aero
www.fintech.aero

Background
The De-Havilland Canada Dash 8-300
first flew in May 1987 and was delivered
to launch operator Canadian Regional in
February 1989. The -300 variant was the
third iteration in the Dash 8 series developed from a 3.4m fuselage stretch and 2.4m
increase in wingspan over the original -100
series. Certified by EASA and FAA to seat a
maximum of 56 passengers, the type is able
to transport 50 passengers and bags approximately 1,000nm. At the time, De-Havilland
also offered optional dual air-conditioning
packs and long-range fuel tanks, permitting an additional 1,000nm range increase
but with reduced payload. Significantly an
APU was also offered as an option to permitting cooling of the cabin on hot days,
but this came with a payload penalty of
three passengers. Rugged and reliable Pratt
and Whitney PW 123 series engines were
installed for all the different -300 variants,
which sported MTOWs varying from 18,600
Kg (41,000 lb) to 19,500 Kg (43,000 lb).
From 1996 Bombardier introduced the AVNS
cabin noise reduction system and changed
the model name to Dash 8-Q300.
The 20-year production run yielded
236 aircraft, resulting in an average delivery rate of one aircraft per month, which -
although miniscule compared to Boeing and
AIRCRAFT TYPE
SERIES
ENGINE TYPE

Dash 8
300
PW123

YoB
2008
2006
2004
2002
2000
1998
1996
1994
1992
1990

CMV (USD m)
7.76
6.96
6.24
5.60
5.05
4.58
4.20
3.90
3.68
3.55

Airbus metrics - is not uncommon in the
regional market. Delivery volumes peaked
soon after launch in 1991, with 37 aircraft
but thereafter trended towards 7-10 aircraft
per year until eventual program termination
in 2009. Sales of the aircraft were decimated by the introduction of the 50-seat
regional jet, which gained traction very
quickly in the mid-1990s in light of relatively cheap fuel. The capability to operate
from unprepared strips with minimal infrastructure did continue to draw orders from
those operators requiring such attributes.

Current and Future
Market Outlook
Values have softened considerably since
their highs of 2010-2012, when demand from
government agencies such as the United
Nations - through the offering of lucrative contracts - drove pricing upwards.
However, the aircraft were also utilized
extensively by oil producers shuttling crews
and spares after the collapse of crude pricing contracted hours fell drastically, leading
to an increase in aircraft availability. The
strength of the U.S. dollar and the reticence of those investors who purchased
five years ago to realize a loss has caused
the market to stagnate. Consequently, most

market activity revolves around "power by
the hour" or operating lease contracts.
In addition, financing is also difficult to
arrange without an onward lessee providing
the security of a revenue stream.
Currently there are 190 operational aircraft, with an additional 39 in storage - an
increase of 20 since June 2015. Eighteen
aircraft are publicly available for sale. Lease
rates, which are in the 0020 region of USD
60-80,000 per month are heavily dependent
upon the technical condition and specification of an aircraft and less so on the
year of build (YoB). The spread of current
market values across 20 production years is
extremely compressed, with an estimated
variance of only USD 4-5m. The recent decision by Jazz Air, the largest Dash 8-300
operator (28), to invest considerable sums in
the OEM provided extended service program
(ESP) should provide some stability in the
market place for at least the next 10 years.
Continued demand from niche market players
such as maritime patrol and border protection agencies has and will consume a handful
of heavily modified aircraft. Elsewhere in
Africa and Canada, the type continues to
be well-supported with sufficient spares and
crews available to ensure ongoing operational availability.

Future Base Values inflated at 1.5%
BV (USD m)
6.89
5.60
4.49
3.70
3.01
2.40
1.87
1.44
1.09
1.02

2018
6.31
5.10
4.15
3.39
2.73
2.16
1.67
1.27
-

2020
5.25
4.27
3.50
2.81
2.22
1.72
1.31
-

2022
4.40
3.60
2.90
2.29
1.77
1.35
-

Specification assumes MTOW 19,500 Kg (43,000 lbs) & optional APU not installed.
Values are produced in accordance with ISTAT definitions.

44 The official publication of the International Society of Transport Aircraft Trading

2024
3.71
2.99
2.36
1.83
1.39
-

2026
3.08
2.43
1.88
1.44
-

2028
2.50
1.94
1.48
-

2030
2.00
1.52
-

2032
1.57
-
http://www.fintech.aero
Jetrader - Summer 2017

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