Jetrader - Summer 2018 - 25

watching DHL's experience with the aircraft
and, given the aircraft's technical and economic capability, the program should eventually reach and maintain a solid production
rate for many years to come.

777
As of April 2018, Boeing has delivered
138 aircraft to 18 operators with a backlog of 30 units. The current production
rate is approximately 10 aircraft per year,
which should be sustainable well into the
2020s as carriers continue to replace MD11s
and 747s.
A 777 conversion program is once again
under evaluation by Boeing. IAI reportedly has a 777 test bed fuselage and is
likely completing the engineering required
for certification. At this point, neither
company has given any indication as to
a converted aircraft's capability nor the
expected conversion cost. Given the complexity of working with a carbon fiber
fuselage and other 777 unique engineering
elements, a high conversion price can be
expected, thereby lowering the acceptable
feedstock cost needed to produce a competitive freighter. Realistically, feedstock
prices are not expected to reach acceptable levels until the early 2020s, and 777
lessors with aircraft returning from passenger lease are not inclined to speculate
on a freighter conversion. If and when the
777-300PTF enters service, it will likely be
used to replace the remaining MD11Fs and
747-400BCFs and -400SFs.

delivered in the 1960s, stabilized after a
period with no orders and potential production shutdown. UPS has now ordered 24
aircraft, ensuring production through 2022.
Since the 747 production freighter is the
only Western-built aircraft with nose loading and outsize cargo capability, as 747-400
factory freighters retire in the 2020s, if the
747-8F is not in production after 2022, the
world market will face declining availability
of this capability.
After reviewing active production and
conversion programs, the question of

whether sufficient capacity will enter the
fleet to meet expected demand is debatable. While some conversion providers
have the ability to increase capacity, it
is unclear whether they are prepared to
invest the necessary capital or whether
properly priced feedstock will be available when needed. The widebody fleet is
more vulnerable than narrowbodies since
it is more directly affected by changes
in world trade. In any event, these are
exciting times ahead for the freight
aircraft market.

747
With the strong recovery in international air freight markets, 747-400 freighters are now back in demand. A few years
ago, more than 70 units were parked while
today it is quite difficult to find an aircraft that can be quickly placed back in
service. The fleet can be broken down
into two main categories: production
units with a nose-loading cargo door and
converted units without this capability.
The average age of the production aircraft is only 15 years, and these aircraft
will be in service for many more years. In
contrast, the converted freighters average
age is 26 years with one-third in longterm storage, and all are destined to be
parted out.
The 747-8F production freighter, most
likely the last variant of a type first
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2018 25
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Jetrader - Summer 2018

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