Jetrader - Fall 2014 - 30

Chart 3: Future Freighter Deliveries Will Be Led
By Demand for Large Widebodies

New freighter deliveries: 840
2014-2033

700
600

200

400

100

200
100

>80
tonnes

70%

Medium

40-80 tonnes

30%

$190B

150

250

300

Large

2014-2033

250

590

500

Market value: $240 billion

Market value

Airplane units

According to Hulst, the forecast is developed yearly using
a wide range of sources and considerations including looks at
airline and airport infrastructure, technology developments and
new-airplane capabilities, as well as economic growth projections
that are foundational for air traffic growth.
"For more than 50 years, the CMO's been a look at all of the
world's aviation regions," Hulst said. "It's different than our
competitor's approach. We cover specifically more than 180
named airlines and airline groups and 63 different regional traffic flows. We cover the world and the whole market, from 30
seats up. We evaluate all scheduled service, which is the vast
majority of the market, as well as cargo aircraft and unscheduled
service," Hulst said.
Tinseth said the CMO's mission both internally and externally
hasn't wavered over the decades.
"In those early days we did the CMO for the same reasons
we do it today. The forecast helps support our product strategy
process and is used to develop our long-range business plan. We
also share it with suppliers and customers to help in their planning process, and with the industry at large. History has proven
us to be accurate, and actually to be a little bit conservative,"
Tinseth said.
"We've been spot-on in estimating twin-aisle demand and
have overestimated demand for big planes and regional jets
while under-forecasting demand for single-aisle planes. Results
like this give us confidence in our methods and models we use

$50B

Standard

<45 tonnes

Large
>80
tonnes

79%

Medium

40-80 tonnes

21%

$0B

Standard
<45
tonnes

Over the 20-year course of Boeing's latest annual aircraft market
forecast, the U.S. manufacturer expects large, widebodied freighter
airplanes to dominate global cargo-aircraft deliveries. (Boeing chart)

in the forecast, as well as in our strategy, business plan and the
advice we get from our trusted partners," Tinseth said.
The full 2014 Current Market Outlook can be found at
www.boeing.com/cmo. Boeing also has a CMO mobile app available at no cost through the Apple iTunes store.
Thanks to Boeing for supplying editorial content for this story.

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