Jetrader - Fall 2014 - 53

appraisal

Airbus A321-200

Douglas B. Kelly
Senior Vice President - Asset Valuation
ISTAT Certified Senior Appraiser
AVITAS, Inc.
Tel: +1 703-476-2300
doug.kelly@avitas.com

Overview and Background

operator base with 70 operators and 832 aircraft in service. The
A321-200 has a backlog comprising of 502 firm orders and no
aircraft were reported as being in storage. Availability is low
with only 11 aircraft being advertised for sale or lease, which
represents only 1.3 percent of the in-service fleet. The A321‑200
has a strong presence in Europe and Asia/Pacific and a growing
presence in North America.
For the A321-200, the outlook is generally very optimistic given
the established operator base and remaining backlog of firm orders.
As the market continues to recover, the aircraft is well-positioned
to take advantage of improving conditions and continues to benefit
from full technical commonality with its smaller siblings.
With the first A320neo ready for Airbus' flight-test program
(MSN 6101) in July 2014, attention is focused on what impact
there is likely to be on the existing range of aircraft in the A320
family. However, service entry of the A320neo is not expected until
fourth quarter 2015 with that of the A321neo around a year later.
As of April 2014, there were 591 firm orders among 23 customers
for the A321neo.

The A321 was the second model to be produced in the A320
family. The A321-100, the initial variant of the A321, is a stretched
derivative of the A320-200 that has approximately 25 percent more
seating capacity (around 185 seats) at the sacrifice of 20 percent
in range. The aircraft was launched in November 1989 and received
initial certification in late 1993. Delivery to launch customer
Lufthansa occurred in January 1994 with the aircraft entering
revenue service in March 1994. However, like the A320-100, being
an initial variant of a new model, the A321-100 was also eventually
upstaged by its more capable sibling, the A321-200. As a result,
it had a short production run of just nine years that resulted in
fewer than 100 units being produced. The A321-100 was offered
with two different power plants, the CFM56 or the V2500.
The A321-200, the more capable A321 variant, was launched
in April 1995, first flew in December 1996 and was delivered to
Monarch Airlines in April 1997. The main differences between the
A321-100 and the A321-200 are a reinforced structure to allow
for increased design weights, higher thrust engines and the
provisioning for optional additional center fuel tanks (ACTs). The
enhancements successfully recaptured the 600 nautical miles of
range lost as a result of the initial stretch from the A320, enabling
the aircraft to fly 3,000 nautical miles with maximum passengers.
Like the earlier variant, the A321-200 is also offered with two
different power plants, the CFM56 and V2500.

Regional Distribution Data
World Region

Current and Future Market Outlook
AVITAS believes that the market for the A321-200 is stable
and strengthening. The aircraft enjoys a large and diversified

In Service

Firm Orders

Africa/Middle East
Asia/Pacific
Europe
Latin America/Caribbean
North America
Total

46
305
338
18
125
832

15
144
96
52
195
502

Airbus A321-200 Values as of March 2014, US$ million
Year of
Build

Current
Market
Value

2014
Base
Value

Future Base Values at 1.5% Inflation
2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014

13.9
16.2
18.8
22.0
25.9
30.4
34.9
40.1
46.7
53.8

14.2
16.5
19.1
22.4
26.5
31.0
35.6
40.9
47.1
53.8

13.3
15.6
18.1
20.9
24.7
29.2
33.8
38.6
44.4
50.3

12.4
14.6
17.0
19.7
23.1
27.3
32.0
36.5
41.9
47.3

11.6
13.7
16.0
18.6
21.6
25.5
30.0
34.6
39.5
44.6

10.7
12.8
15.1
17.5
20.3
23.8
28.1
32.8
37.4
41.9

9.9
11.9
14.1
16.5
19.2
22.2
26.3
30.8
35.4
39.4

9.1
11.1
13.2
15.5
18.1
20.9
24.5
28.8
33.5
37.2

8.3
10.2
12.3
14.6
17.0
19.7
22.9
26.9
31.4
35.0

7.5
9.4
11.4
13.6
16.0
18.6
21.6
25.1
29.3
33.0

6.8
8.5
10.5
12.7
15.0
17.5
20.3
23.4
27.3
30.7

6.1
7.7
9.6
11.7
14.0
16.5
19.2
22.0
25.5
28.6

The aircraft values stated herein are the product and the property of independent third-party sources, and ISTAT neither approves nor endorses the
information contained herein or the use thereof for any purpose whatsoever.

Aircraft specification: IAE V2533-A5 SelectOne, 196,200 lbs MTOW
Maintenance assumption: new aircraft is full-life transitioning to half-life at four years old.
Jetrader * Fall 2014 53

Jetrader - Fall 2014

Table of Contents for the Digital Edition of Jetrader - Fall 2014