Jetrader - Autumn 2015 - 38

AF: Africa
AP: Asia Pacific

E-CIS: Europe & CIS
LA: Latin America

ME: Middle East
NA: North America

Firm Orders, January to June 2015

Europe & CIS Fleet Size - June 2015

Africa
7
1%

547, 8%
Unidentified
130
14%

1,184, 18%
962, 15%

AsiaPacific
112
12%

North America
264
29%

3,932, 59%

Europe
235
26%

Latin America
151
16%

Turboprop

Regional Jet

for 54 percent of the fleet, followed by
20 percent for widebody, 18 percent for
regional jets and 8 percent for turboprops.
Overall, North America has the largest
share of aircraft; however, when IBA analyzes modern popular aircraft, Asia Pacific
has the largest fleet with approximately
6,959 aircraft or 27 percent of the total
fleet. Asia Pacific is followed by Europe &
CIS (6,625), Latin America (1,663), Middle
East (1,432) and Africa (1,032). For the
first time, Europe has lost its position as
the second largest market for aircraft. That
place is now secured by Asia Pacific, and
the growth looks set to continue with Asia
expected to take over North America in
three to five years' time.
Within Europe and CIS, narrowbody fleet
has the largest share of the market, as
expected, with a total of 3,932 aircraft,
followed by 1,184 widebody, 962 regional
jets and 547 turboprop aircraft.
The Paris Air Show provided a muchneeded boost for OEMs across the globe,
particularly Airbus and ATR. Between these
two companies, they secured 467 orders/

Narrowbody

Widebody

Middle East
17
2%

commitments/MOUs and 55 options out of
934 total orders/commitments/MOUs and
130 options. The only significant order from
Europe came in the form of an MOU from
Wizz Air for 110 A321neos; a positive sign
for the eastern European aviation market.
This is not only 200 or so less than the
last Paris Air Show in 2013, but we also
don't see any other major carriers from
Europe appearing in the list. In 2013, seven
European operators placed almost 50 percent of the orders. Perhaps price of fuel is
delaying the fleet replacement cycle, and
airlines want to wait and see how this might
change in the coming months.
In terms of firm orders, so far this year
the total stands at 916 aircraft, with
European customers taking their fair share
of the total orders.

Finance and Leasing Market
IBA is seeing some consolidation and
acquisitions on the horizon in the lessor
market. Some lessors are looking to sell a
significant part of their fleet to fund new
acquisitions, such as A320neo, 737MAX,

38 The official publication of the International Society of Transport Aircraft Trading

A350 and 787 aircraft. Fly Leasing, for
example, sold 33 jets to raise $425 million.
It is likely that we will see more transactions like this.
European airlines generally have been
successful in financing their aircraft.
Chinese and Japanese lessors have also
taken a strong position with European airlines. Looking at the deals signed in 2014
and so far this year, Jolco seems to be
the preferred option for most airlines in
Europe. British Airways and THY stand out
with both using a combination of Jolco and
Export Credit Agency (ECA)-backed financing during 2014. THY has been very active
this year, signing many deals that combined yen-denominated ECA-guaranteed
debt with the Jolco structure. Earlier this
year, THY established itself in the Enhanced
Equipment Trust Certificates (EETC) market with a $328 million offering secured
by three new 777-300ERs, following the
footsteps of British Airways. TUI is another
regular user of Jolco and is likely to finance
its 737-800s and 787 using this structure
in the Japanese market.
Jetrader - Autumn 2015

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