JED - November 2017 - 30

be because the price goal for a low-cost
MWS and DIRCM suite has always been
a $1 million unit cost in full-rate production, and this "goal" has never been
achieved in practice. This is the cost
that has been widely cited for decades
as what would lead to the procurement
of thousands of systems for helicopters
and small aircraft in many countries, and
possibly also for commercial airliners.
In February 2016, the US Army's
FY17 overseas contingency operations
(OCO) budget funded initial production
of 76 Common IRCM (CIRCM) B-kits (laser, pointer tracker and controller), at a
unit cost of $1.2 million per unit, or $1.5
million when including initial installation and support costs. But this is only
the CIRCM B-kit cost, which is somewhat
misleading - total cost for adding CIRCM
to each aircraft will be much higher than
$1.5 million. When adding the A-kit -
basically everything that needs to be
added to the aircraft to make the sensors
and lasers work - actual unit cost might
jump to $2.5 million or more. And this
additional $1+ million A-kit unit cost is
currently being hidden in platform or

other funding lines. It is not broken out
in DOD budget documents, meaning the
true CIRCM cost is not obvious.
CIRCM was originally hoped for as a $1
million-per-unit-cost system, and this is
the price tag that would have made the
most sense for high-rate procurement of
1,000 US Navy systems and 1,000+ US
Army systems. A $2.5+ million system is
justified for a C-130 or a C-17, maybe for
an AH-64 Apache or a special forces platform, but perhaps not for a UH-60 utility
Black Hawk, for example. We do not see
the Army or Navy beginning massive,
universal CIRCM procurements just yet.
And funding planned in the FY17 budget did not allow for such high-rate production (though it was not bad, at $116
million and $121 million [B-kit...] procurement in FY20 and FY21, perhaps for
about 80 CIRCM systems each year; and
an additional $43.4 million OCO funding
added in the FY18 budget request, ramping up to $148.5 million in FY22).
But with CIRCM production just beginning, and with hidden costs likely
to give CIRCM a $2.5 million or higher
unit cost (when including installation),

it seems the market for truly low-cost
DIRCM & MWS systems still exists and
may in fact be ready to grow again -
which is, Teal Group believes, why a
whole raft of new offerings and technologies have begun appearing.

DIRCM'S FUTURE:
THE LOW END = LOW COST
Our highly speculative Future LowCost DIRCM and MWS Systems forecast
begins with RDT&E development funding - and not much of it, as most proposed systems have been and will need
to be developed and initially tested
with company funds. But, when a good,
$1-2 million system is available, perhaps near the end of the decade, we
will see procurement funding ramping
up for large production contracts. The
down-side for new DIRCM system developers is that success will mean maybe
40-80 systems per year at $1-2 million
each - and with low profit margins, as
cost will be an important factor in gaining contracts. Teal Group also forecasts
about 80 CIRCM systems continuing to
be bought annually for the US Army,

30
The Journal of Electronic Defense | November 2017

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JED - November 2017

Table of Contents for the Digital Edition of JED - November 2017

The View From Here
Conferences Calendar
Courses Calendar
From the President
The Monitor
World Report
Forecast: Future of DIRCM
Sensor Fusion for 4th Gen Fighters
Technology Survey: ELINT Receivers
54th Annual AOC International Symposium and Convention Guide
EW 101
AOC News
Index of Advertisers
JED Quick Look
JED - November 2017 - intro
JED - November 2017 - cover1
JED - November 2017 - cover2
JED - November 2017 - 3
JED - November 2017 - 4
JED - November 2017 - 5
JED - November 2017 - The View From Here
JED - November 2017 - 7
JED - November 2017 - Conferences Calendar
JED - November 2017 - 9
JED - November 2017 - Courses Calendar
JED - November 2017 - 11
JED - November 2017 - From the President
JED - November 2017 - 13
JED - November 2017 - 14
JED - November 2017 - insert1
JED - November 2017 - insert2
JED - November 2017 - The Monitor
JED - November 2017 - 16
JED - November 2017 - 17
JED - November 2017 - 18
JED - November 2017 - 19
JED - November 2017 - 20
JED - November 2017 - 21
JED - November 2017 - 22
JED - November 2017 - 23
JED - November 2017 - World Report
JED - November 2017 - 25
JED - November 2017 - Forecast: Future of DIRCM
JED - November 2017 - 27
JED - November 2017 - 28
JED - November 2017 - 29
JED - November 2017 - 30
JED - November 2017 - 31
JED - November 2017 - 32
JED - November 2017 - 33
JED - November 2017 - 34
JED - November 2017 - Sensor Fusion for 4th Gen Fighters
JED - November 2017 - 36
JED - November 2017 - 37
JED - November 2017 - 38
JED - November 2017 - Technology Survey: ELINT Receivers
JED - November 2017 - 40
JED - November 2017 - 41
JED - November 2017 - 42
JED - November 2017 - 43
JED - November 2017 - 44
JED - November 2017 - 45
JED - November 2017 - 46
JED - November 2017 - 47
JED - November 2017 - 48
JED - November 2017 - 54th Annual AOC International Symposium and Convention Guide
JED - November 2017 - 50
JED - November 2017 - 51
JED - November 2017 - 52
JED - November 2017 - 53
JED - November 2017 - 54
JED - November 2017 - 55
JED - November 2017 - 56
JED - November 2017 - 57
JED - November 2017 - 58
JED - November 2017 - 59
JED - November 2017 - 60
JED - November 2017 - 61
JED - November 2017 - 62
JED - November 2017 - 63
JED - November 2017 - 64
JED - November 2017 - 65
JED - November 2017 - EW 101
JED - November 2017 - 67
JED - November 2017 - 68
JED - November 2017 - AOC News
JED - November 2017 - 70
JED - November 2017 - 71
JED - November 2017 - 72
JED - November 2017 - Index of Advertisers
JED - November 2017 - JED Quick Look
JED - November 2017 - cover3
JED - November 2017 - cover4
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