JED - December 2015 - 72

One of the reasons why Israel was effective in fielding a counter-MANPADS
solution on its passenger aircraft and
the US was not is due to the sheer size
of the US passenger aircraft fleet. While
Israel has a very small fleet of widebody
passenger aircraft, which keeps the total cost of equipping and maintaining
FlightGuard relatively low (as of last
year, only six C-MUSIC DIRCM systems
had been installed on El Al aircraft), the
US commercial aircraft fleet is a very
different matter. In its 2008 Counter-

tiveness). Of course, the airlines also
had lawyers who raised questions about
legal liability if a system did not work
and an aircraft was hit by a missile.
They also had concerns about who was
liable if an IR missile was successfully
jammed but ended up injuring someone
or destroying property when it hit the
ground. With these types of issues influencing the counter-MANPADS discussion, it was clear that legal and policy
questions were equal to, or greater than,
the technical challenges.

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8/29/13 2:51 AM

MANPADS program report to Congress,
DHS estimated that equipping all 526
widebody passenger aircraft in the US
would protect 107 million passengers per
year, but it would carry a 20-year life
cycle cost of $6.8 billion. If the program
were extended to all 3,636 large passenger aircraft in the US, it would protect
800 million passengers per year, but it
would carry a life cycle cost of $43.3 billion. The big question for the airlines
was who would pay that bill. (For the
record, a more modest program to equip
98 "targeted" passenger aircraft would
protect 20 million passengers and carry
a lifecycle cost of $2.2 billion.)
The DHS report, of course, provided
the best information available at that
time. It also estimated that the $43.3
billion price tag for equipping 3,636
large passenger aircraft could be reduced by $10 billion if system reliability
were doubled. Another $4 billion could
be saved in fuel costs if the system drag
could be reduced by 25 percent. Since
2008, DIRCM reliability has improved
significantly in the US Army's ATIRCM
program and in the US Air Force and
US Navy LAIRCM program. The size
and weight of DIRCM systems has also
improved as demonstrated by the two
Technology Demonstration prototypes
developed for the US Army's CIRCM
program.
Even with these recent advances in
DIRCM reliability and size, the question remains, "Are these improvements
good enough to be acceptable to the
airlines?" Of course "good enough" is a
relative concept. If one or more passenger jets are shot down today, DHS would
certainly revisit counter-MANPADS solutions and US airlines might change their
position if the cost benefit was worth it.
The problem is that very few US political leaders are focusing attention on
the issue of commercial aircraft vulnerability to the MANPADS threat. For their
part, US airlines don't seem to want to
have a MANPADS conversation at all.
Yet, the factors that drive the risk to
commercial aircraft have only become
worse over the past decade. In 2003,
there was only one global terror organization to contend with. Today there are
two - Al Qaeda and ISIS - and the latter
is extremely active, as evidenced by the


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JED - December 2015

Table of Contents for the Digital Edition of JED - December 2015

The View from Here
Conferences Calendar
Courses Calendar
From the President
Letters
The Monitor
Washington Report
World Report
2015 AOC Award Winners
SIGINT on the Border
Jamming Down Under
Commercial Airliners: Still Vulnerable to MANPADS
New Products
Threat Monitor
EW 101
Report from the 2015 AOC Pacific Conference
Report from the 2015 AOC CEMA Conference
AOC News
Index of Advertisers
JED Quick Look
JED - December 2015 - cover1
JED - December 2015 - cover2
JED - December 2015 - igc
JED - December 2015 - OGC
JED - December 2015 - 3
JED - December 2015 - 4
JED - December 2015 - 5
JED - December 2015 - The View from Here
JED - December 2015 - 7
JED - December 2015 - Conferences Calendar
JED - December 2015 - 9
JED - December 2015 - Courses Calendar
JED - December 2015 - 11
JED - December 2015 - From the President
JED - December 2015 - 13
JED - December 2015 - Letters
JED - December 2015 - The Monitor
JED - December 2015 - 16
JED - December 2015 - 17
JED - December 2015 - 18
JED - December 2015 - 19
JED - December 2015 - 20
JED - December 2015 - 21
JED - December 2015 - 22
JED - December 2015 - 23
JED - December 2015 - 24
JED - December 2015 - 25
JED - December 2015 - 26
JED - December 2015 - 27
JED - December 2015 - 28
JED - December 2015 - 29
JED - December 2015 - Washington Report
JED - December 2015 - 31
JED - December 2015 - World Report
JED - December 2015 - 33
JED - December 2015 - 2015 AOC Award Winners
JED - December 2015 - 35
JED - December 2015 - 36
JED - December 2015 - 37
JED - December 2015 - 38
JED - December 2015 - 39
JED - December 2015 - 40
JED - December 2015 - 41
JED - December 2015 - 42
JED - December 2015 - 43
JED - December 2015 - SIGINT on the Border
JED - December 2015 - 45
JED - December 2015 - 46
JED - December 2015 - 47
JED - December 2015 - 48
JED - December 2015 - 49
JED - December 2015 - 50
JED - December 2015 - 51
JED - December 2015 - 52
JED - December 2015 - 53
JED - December 2015 - 54
JED - December 2015 - 55
JED - December 2015 - 56
JED - December 2015 - 57
JED - December 2015 - Jamming Down Under
JED - December 2015 - 59
JED - December 2015 - 60
JED - December 2015 - 61
JED - December 2015 - 62
JED - December 2015 - 63
JED - December 2015 - 64
JED - December 2015 - 65
JED - December 2015 - 66
JED - December 2015 - 67
JED - December 2015 - Commercial Airliners: Still Vulnerable to MANPADS
JED - December 2015 - 69
JED - December 2015 - 70
JED - December 2015 - 71
JED - December 2015 - 72
JED - December 2015 - 73
JED - December 2015 - 74
JED - December 2015 - 75
JED - December 2015 - New Products
JED - December 2015 - 77
JED - December 2015 - Threat Monitor
JED - December 2015 - 79
JED - December 2015 - 80
JED - December 2015 - 81
JED - December 2015 - EW 101
JED - December 2015 - 83
JED - December 2015 - 84
JED - December 2015 - 85
JED - December 2015 - Report from the 2015 AOC Pacific Conference
JED - December 2015 - 87
JED - December 2015 - 88
JED - December 2015 - 89
JED - December 2015 - Report from the 2015 AOC CEMA Conference
JED - December 2015 - 91
JED - December 2015 - 92
JED - December 2015 - AOC News
JED - December 2015 - 94
JED - December 2015 - 95
JED - December 2015 - 96
JED - December 2015 - Index of Advertisers
JED - December 2015 - JED Quick Look
JED - December 2015 - cover3
JED - December 2015 - cover4
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