Paper360 - July/August 2017 - 58

the bottom line | GRAPHIC PAPER

Industry Trends in Graphic Paper
MARK RUSHTON

Decades ago, graphic paper was a powerhouse, with global demand growth consistently outpacing growth in GDP. Clearly, things
have changed. Paper360° Senior Editor Mark
Rushton spoke with RISI's John Maine, an
industry-recognized expert for global printing and writing paper markets, to learn about
what the future may hold for graphic paper.
RUSHTON: Can you give us a brief history of what has happened to supply and
demand in the graphic paper industry over
the last 10-15 years?
MAINE: Seventeen years ago marked the
advent of the first secular decline in any graphic
paper product. The product was newsprint
in the North American market, and it broke
away from its traditional drivers of GDP-
retail spending and ad spending-and started
marching to a new tune of market share losses
to electronic media. One year later, the secular
decline spread to the North American uncoated
freesheet market as the long-predicted impact

of electronics in the office finally took its toll.
It would take another eight years before other
markets, such as coated paper and uncoated
mechanical, finally succumbed to print
media collapse.
The industry initially refused to believe that
the market was in secular decline. It had been
through several recessions in the past, and the
market had always bounced back. Thus, instead
of permanently shuttering capacity to balance
the market, many mills took downtime and
awaited the recovery. But it never came.
The recession of 2001 ended up being the
spark that ignited the secular decline in newsprint and uncoated freesheet papers. The recession of 2008-09 in turn marked the turning
point for the rest of the industry (Fig. 1). The lack
of permanent shuts led to chronic oversupply,
and it wasn't until 2003-05 that several large
producers started taking major permanent closures and even started a practice of pre-emptive
shuts to balance a market in permanent decline
before operating rates and prices collapsed.

What is the outlook for printing and writing grades on a regional basis?
The malaise has spread like a plague to the
rest of the world. Western Europe followed the
trends in North America about five years later
and the developing Asian market reached what
we believe was the start of a long-term secular
decline in 2014. The explosive growth of China
ended, and although its GDP continue to jump 6
percent per year, its newsprint demand peaked
in 2009 and printing and writing demand
peaked in 2013.
There are now few places around the globe
where graphic paper demand is growing
(Middle East, Africa) and they are far outweighed by secular decline in the rest of the
world. Global graphic paper demand is now in
permanent decline and has been for the past
several years.
Going forward we can expect graphic paper
demand to decline in almost all regions of the
globe (Fig. 2). Rates of decline will be abating
in the developed regions of North America

Fig. 2

58

Paper360º

JULY/AUGUST 2017

www.tappi.org


http://www.tappi.org

Table of Contents for the Digital Edition of Paper360 - July/August 2017

Setpoint
Over the Wire
Euroports Extends Its Reach
Ensuring a Tight Load
Riding the Rails
Trailer Flooring Makes a Difference in Paper Roll Transport
Top 50 Power List
CEPI’s New Director General: ‘A Remarkable Industry'
Värö’s Expansion for the Future
Model Behavior: Understanding Virtual Process Integration
Mondi Štĕtí Chooses Direct Drive Technology
The Knowledge Trail
TAPPI Journal Summaries
How Does China’s Containerboard Market Compare to the US?
Industry Trends in Graphic Paper
Will China Ban Mixed Paper Imports?
TAPPI News
ASPI News
Index of Advertisers
Paper360 - July/August 2017 - intro
Paper360 - July/August 2017 - bellyband1
Paper360 - July/August 2017 - bellyband2
Paper360 - July/August 2017 - cover1
Paper360 - July/August 2017 - cover2
Paper360 - July/August 2017 - 3
Paper360 - July/August 2017 - 4
Paper360 - July/August 2017 - 5
Paper360 - July/August 2017 - Setpoint
Paper360 - July/August 2017 - 7
Paper360 - July/August 2017 - Over the Wire
Paper360 - July/August 2017 - 9
Paper360 - July/August 2017 - 10
Paper360 - July/August 2017 - 11
Paper360 - July/August 2017 - 12
Paper360 - July/August 2017 - 13
Paper360 - July/August 2017 - Euroports Extends Its Reach
Paper360 - July/August 2017 - 15
Paper360 - July/August 2017 - 16
Paper360 - July/August 2017 - 17
Paper360 - July/August 2017 - 18
Paper360 - July/August 2017 - 19
Paper360 - July/August 2017 - Ensuring a Tight Load
Paper360 - July/August 2017 - 21
Paper360 - July/August 2017 - Riding the Rails
Paper360 - July/August 2017 - 23
Paper360 - July/August 2017 - Trailer Flooring Makes a Difference in Paper Roll Transport
Paper360 - July/August 2017 - 25
Paper360 - July/August 2017 - 26
Paper360 - July/August 2017 - Top 50 Power List
Paper360 - July/August 2017 - 28
Paper360 - July/August 2017 - 29
Paper360 - July/August 2017 - 30
Paper360 - July/August 2017 - 31
Paper360 - July/August 2017 - 32
Paper360 - July/August 2017 - 33
Paper360 - July/August 2017 - 34
Paper360 - July/August 2017 - 35
Paper360 - July/August 2017 - 36
Paper360 - July/August 2017 - 37
Paper360 - July/August 2017 - CEPI’s New Director General: ‘A Remarkable Industry'
Paper360 - July/August 2017 - 39
Paper360 - July/August 2017 - 40
Paper360 - July/August 2017 - 41
Paper360 - July/August 2017 - Värö’s Expansion for the Future
Paper360 - July/August 2017 - 43
Paper360 - July/August 2017 - Model Behavior: Understanding Virtual Process Integration
Paper360 - July/August 2017 - 45
Paper360 - July/August 2017 - 46
Paper360 - July/August 2017 - 47
Paper360 - July/August 2017 - Mondi Štĕtí Chooses Direct Drive Technology
Paper360 - July/August 2017 - 49
Paper360 - July/August 2017 - The Knowledge Trail
Paper360 - July/August 2017 - 51
Paper360 - July/August 2017 - TAPPI Journal Summaries
Paper360 - July/August 2017 - 53
Paper360 - July/August 2017 - 54
Paper360 - July/August 2017 - 55
Paper360 - July/August 2017 - How Does China’s Containerboard Market Compare to the US?
Paper360 - July/August 2017 - 57
Paper360 - July/August 2017 - Industry Trends in Graphic Paper
Paper360 - July/August 2017 - 59
Paper360 - July/August 2017 - Will China Ban Mixed Paper Imports?
Paper360 - July/August 2017 - 61
Paper360 - July/August 2017 - 62
Paper360 - July/August 2017 - 63
Paper360 - July/August 2017 - 64
Paper360 - July/August 2017 - 65
Paper360 - July/August 2017 - 66
Paper360 - July/August 2017 - TAPPI News
Paper360 - July/August 2017 - ASPI News
Paper360 - July/August 2017 - 69
Paper360 - July/August 2017 - Index of Advertisers
Paper360 - July/August 2017 - cover3
Paper360 - July/August 2017 - cover4
http://www.nxtbook.com/naylor/PPID/PPID0018
http://www.nxtbook.com/naylor/PPIS/PPIS0218
http://www.nxtbook.com/naylor/PPIS/PPIS0118
http://www.nxtbook.com/naylor/PPIS/PPIS0617
http://www.nxtbook.com/naylor/PPIS/PPIS0517
http://www.nxtbook.com/naylor/PPIS/PPIS0417
http://www.nxtbook.com/naylor/PPIS/PPIS0317
http://www.nxtbook.com/naylor/PPID/PPID0017
http://www.nxtbook.com/naylor/PPIS/PPIS0217
http://www.nxtbook.com/naylor/PPIS/PPIS0117
http://www.nxtbook.com/naylor/PPIS/PPIS0616
http://www.nxtbook.com/naylor/PPIS/PPIS0516
http://www.nxtbook.com/naylor/PPIS/PPIS0416
http://www.nxtbook.com/naylor/PPIS/PPIS0316
http://www.nxtbook.com/naylor/PPID/PPID0016
http://www.nxtbook.com/naylor/PPIS/PPIS0216
http://www.nxtbook.com/naylor/PPIS/PPIS0116
http://www.nxtbook.com/naylor/PPIS/PPIS0615
http://www.nxtbook.com/naylor/PPIS/PPIS0515
http://www.nxtbook.com/naylor/PPIS/PPIS0415
http://www.nxtbook.com/naylor/PPID/PPID0014
http://www.nxtbook.com/naylor/PPIS/PPIS0315
http://www.nxtbook.com/naylor/PPIS/PPIS0215
http://www.nxtbook.com/naylor/PPIS/PPIS0714
http://www.nxtbook.com/naylor/PPIS/PPIS0614
http://www.nxtbook.com/naylor/PPIS/PPIS0514
http://www.nxtbook.com/naylor/PPIS/PPIS0414
http://www.nxtbook.com/naylor/PPID/PPID0013
http://www.nxtbook.com/naylor/PPIS/PPIS0314
http://www.nxtbook.com/naylor/PPIS/PPIS0214
http://www.nxtbook.com/naylor/PPIS/PPIS0713
http://www.nxtbook.com/naylor/PPIS/PPIS0613
http://www.nxtbook.com/naylor/PPIS/PPIS0513
http://www.nxtbook.com/naylor/PPIS/PPIS0413
http://www.nxtbook.com/naylor/PPIS/PPID0012
http://www.nxtbook.com/naylor/PPIS/PPIS0313
http://www.nxtbook.com/naylor/PPIS/PPIS0213
http://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/naylor/PPIS0712
http://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/naylor/PPIS0612
http://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/naylor/PPIS0512
http://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/naylor/PPIS0412
http://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/naylor/PPIS0312
http://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/naylor/PPIS0212
http://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/naylor/PPIS0711
http://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/naylor/PPIS0611
http://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/naylor/PPIS0511
http://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/naylor/PPIS0411
http://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/naylor/PPIS0311
http://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/naylor/PPIS0211
http://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/naylor/PPIS0710
http://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/naylor/PPIS0610
http://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/naylor/PPIS0510
http://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/naylor/PPIS0410
http://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/naylor/PPIS0310
http://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/naylor/PPIS0210
http://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/naylor/PPIS0110
http://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/naylor/PPIS0609
http://www.nxtbookMEDIA.com