Paper360 - July/August 2017 - 59

Meet
John Maine

Fig. 1

and Western Europe, as these markets have
already seen the big hit from initial adoption
of new technologies. Other developing regions
will not see the big declines that initially hit
North America and Western Europe because
they never really saw print media develop to
the extent that it did in the western world. At
some point, we believe that a sustainable level of
demand will be reached and the secular decline
will end, but at this point, it is probably 10 years
or more into the future.
What have been the major factors instrumental in the decline-is it just electronic
media, or are there other factors at work?
Electronic media is the biggie, but we can
also blame electronic transactions, storage,
and e-mail for a host of market declines.
Cultural and demographic trends also bear
some culpability.
Have high quality coated woodfree papers
suffered the same fate?
All grades of graphic paper have suffered.
Think about all those high gloss annual reports,
for example, that are now a tiny fraction of what
they used to be. Also, the media industries
(magazines, catalogs, etc.) have been struggling
financially and have in some cases switched to
cheaper grades of paper to save money. This
reversed a long-standing trend toward higher
gloss, higher brightness papers. There have been
some offsetting factors such as the better performance of high-end catalogs and magazines, as
well as the growth of digital small volume printing. But in the end, high quality coated papers
have suffered long-term secular decline as well.

When it comes to high quality graphic
papers, some producers are noticing a bottoming out of decline and some are even
noticing a small increase in demand. Can
you comment on this? Will there always be
a home for high quality papers?
High quality printing papers are declining and will continue to do so, though maybe
at slower rates than the rest of the market.
Specialties are growing, but these are mostly
packaging specialties. This is why we are seeing
so many conversions and interest in specialty
papers and packaging.
What do you think the industry needs to
do going forward to manage the supply and
demand balance when it comes to graphic
paper production?
We have already shut most of the old, high
cost, outdated mills. We are now seeing more
emphasis on conversions to other products such
as pulp, packaging, and even tissue.
The industry will also continue to battle
imports as a means of balancing the market,
but these battles will have marginal success at
best as long as the real culprit driving up the
imports, the strong dollar, remains unchecked.
Can you sum up your experiences with
the graphics paper industry in your
time as forecasting expert over the past
decades? What do you feel the long-term
future holds?
When I first started as an economist in the
paper industry 40 years ago, graphic paper
demand growth was consistently outpacing
the growth in GDP, as it was a developing and

John Maine is a co-founder and
vice president of graphic paper at
RISI. With more than 38 years in the
graphic paper industry, Maine has
developed RISI's approach to graphic
paper analysis and forecasting and
is an industry-recognized expert for
global printing and writing paper
markets, prices, analysis, and forecasts. His published reports include
the monthly Paper Trader, World
Coated Paper Supply: A risk assessment of capacity closures; World
Graphic Paper Forecast;  World
Graphic Paper Capacity; and North
American Graphic Paper Forecast.

rapidly expanding industry. We started looking
into things like electronic media and plastics
and made some predictions that these developments would slow the growth in graphic papers
and the ubiquitous paper grocery bag. The criticism came that newspapers never collapsed
as predicted due to the growth of television,
and would live through any further electronic
developments. Similarly, some believed that
plastic bags were useless because they couldn't
stand up by themselves and slid down over
the groceries when you tried to carry them
in your arms.
There is some hope, since paper bags are
making a bit of a comeback in some places.
Maybe graphic papers will reach that point over
the next 10 or 15 years, but this analyst will be
long retired by the time that happens!
Paper360º JULY/AUGUST 2017

59



Table of Contents for the Digital Edition of Paper360 - July/August 2017

Setpoint
Over the Wire
Euroports Extends Its Reach
Ensuring a Tight Load
Riding the Rails
Trailer Flooring Makes a Difference in Paper Roll Transport
Top 50 Power List
CEPI’s New Director General: ‘A Remarkable Industry'
Värö’s Expansion for the Future
Model Behavior: Understanding Virtual Process Integration
Mondi Štĕtí Chooses Direct Drive Technology
The Knowledge Trail
TAPPI Journal Summaries
How Does China’s Containerboard Market Compare to the US?
Industry Trends in Graphic Paper
Will China Ban Mixed Paper Imports?
TAPPI News
ASPI News
Index of Advertisers
Paper360 - July/August 2017 - intro
Paper360 - July/August 2017 - bellyband1
Paper360 - July/August 2017 - bellyband2
Paper360 - July/August 2017 - cover1
Paper360 - July/August 2017 - cover2
Paper360 - July/August 2017 - 3
Paper360 - July/August 2017 - 4
Paper360 - July/August 2017 - 5
Paper360 - July/August 2017 - Setpoint
Paper360 - July/August 2017 - 7
Paper360 - July/August 2017 - Over the Wire
Paper360 - July/August 2017 - 9
Paper360 - July/August 2017 - 10
Paper360 - July/August 2017 - 11
Paper360 - July/August 2017 - 12
Paper360 - July/August 2017 - 13
Paper360 - July/August 2017 - Euroports Extends Its Reach
Paper360 - July/August 2017 - 15
Paper360 - July/August 2017 - 16
Paper360 - July/August 2017 - 17
Paper360 - July/August 2017 - 18
Paper360 - July/August 2017 - 19
Paper360 - July/August 2017 - Ensuring a Tight Load
Paper360 - July/August 2017 - 21
Paper360 - July/August 2017 - Riding the Rails
Paper360 - July/August 2017 - 23
Paper360 - July/August 2017 - Trailer Flooring Makes a Difference in Paper Roll Transport
Paper360 - July/August 2017 - 25
Paper360 - July/August 2017 - 26
Paper360 - July/August 2017 - Top 50 Power List
Paper360 - July/August 2017 - 28
Paper360 - July/August 2017 - 29
Paper360 - July/August 2017 - 30
Paper360 - July/August 2017 - 31
Paper360 - July/August 2017 - 32
Paper360 - July/August 2017 - 33
Paper360 - July/August 2017 - 34
Paper360 - July/August 2017 - 35
Paper360 - July/August 2017 - 36
Paper360 - July/August 2017 - 37
Paper360 - July/August 2017 - CEPI’s New Director General: ‘A Remarkable Industry'
Paper360 - July/August 2017 - 39
Paper360 - July/August 2017 - 40
Paper360 - July/August 2017 - 41
Paper360 - July/August 2017 - Värö’s Expansion for the Future
Paper360 - July/August 2017 - 43
Paper360 - July/August 2017 - Model Behavior: Understanding Virtual Process Integration
Paper360 - July/August 2017 - 45
Paper360 - July/August 2017 - 46
Paper360 - July/August 2017 - 47
Paper360 - July/August 2017 - Mondi Štĕtí Chooses Direct Drive Technology
Paper360 - July/August 2017 - 49
Paper360 - July/August 2017 - The Knowledge Trail
Paper360 - July/August 2017 - 51
Paper360 - July/August 2017 - TAPPI Journal Summaries
Paper360 - July/August 2017 - 53
Paper360 - July/August 2017 - 54
Paper360 - July/August 2017 - 55
Paper360 - July/August 2017 - How Does China’s Containerboard Market Compare to the US?
Paper360 - July/August 2017 - 57
Paper360 - July/August 2017 - Industry Trends in Graphic Paper
Paper360 - July/August 2017 - 59
Paper360 - July/August 2017 - Will China Ban Mixed Paper Imports?
Paper360 - July/August 2017 - 61
Paper360 - July/August 2017 - 62
Paper360 - July/August 2017 - 63
Paper360 - July/August 2017 - 64
Paper360 - July/August 2017 - 65
Paper360 - July/August 2017 - 66
Paper360 - July/August 2017 - TAPPI News
Paper360 - July/August 2017 - ASPI News
Paper360 - July/August 2017 - 69
Paper360 - July/August 2017 - Index of Advertisers
Paper360 - July/August 2017 - cover3
Paper360 - July/August 2017 - cover4
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