Paper360 - July/August 2017 - 62

shrank substantially from about US$40/ton
in 2008 to US$23/ton in 2011, then to US$8/
ton in 2015 before rebounding slightly to
about US$10/ton in 2016. In addition to the
change in demand and supply balance, the
price developments for these two grades
reflected at least partially the change in their
compositions, such as the declining old newspaper content in ONP bales.
The price developments for recovered
paper imported from different sources in
the Chinese market also reflected the quality
or composition change for recovered paper
in different regions. For instance, the price
differential between mixed paper imported
from Japan and the USA surged from US$40/
ton in 2009 to about US$50/ton in 2015-2016.
The ONP grades from these two countries
saw very similar price movements during
the same period. It's reasonable to believe
that paper mills are willing to pay more for
cleaner paper.
Of the 5.7 million metric tons of Chinese
mixed paper imports in 2016, about 35 percent came from the US, 32 percent came
from Western Europe, and 22 percent came
from Japan. These three regions, therefore,
were responsible for about 90 percent of

Chinese mixed paper imports and they will
be impacted the most if China's mixed paper
import ban comes out.
As for the US, it sold about half of its mixed
paper collection overseas in 2016, and about
60 percent of that went to China. In general,
the Western European and Japanese mixed
paper markets are relatively less dependent
on the exporting sector, but China is their
largest mixed paper export destination, so
China's impact will be important for these
two regions as well.
Imports accounted for about 35 percent
of Chinese total recovered paper consumption in 2016. Given our current estimates of
the Chinese real paper recovery rate and the
fact that China is generally lacking in virgin
fiber, the country will need to continue to
import a large amount of recovered paper to
support its paper manufacturing, at least in
the near and medium term. The increasing
environmental concerns and stricter control on imports only mean that China wants
cleaner and better paper. Chinese demand
for OCC and ONP could grow and the prices
for these grades could rise as Chinese paper
mills try to find higher grades of recovered
paper to substitute for mixed paper. The mills

without access to stable recovered paper supply, or mills that cannot afford more expensive recovered paper, may be forced to leave
the industry eventually.
Despite the chaos that the mixed paper
import ban could cause, it can be an opportunity for the paper recycling industries in the
major exporting regions to think about their
future business strategies. Where else can the
paper rejected by China be sent? Should the
specifications for different recovered paper
grades be revised, and how? Should there be
more sorting? Will the extra sorting cost be
covered by paper mills?
Hannah Zhao, senior economist, recovered
paper, is the coauthor of several industryrelated special studies, including US Mixed
Paper, ONP and High Grade Recovered
Paper: Trends in Availability and Quality,
Outlook for Global Recovered Paper Markets
and The China Recovered Paper Market: A
Comprehensive Analysis and Outlook. Zhao
is also the author of World Recovered Paper
Monitor, World Pulp & Recovered Paper
5-Year Forecast and World Pulp & Recovered
Paper 15-Year Forecast. She can be reached
via email: hzhao@risi.com.

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Table of Contents for the Digital Edition of Paper360 - July/August 2017

Setpoint
Over the Wire
Euroports Extends Its Reach
Ensuring a Tight Load
Riding the Rails
Trailer Flooring Makes a Difference in Paper Roll Transport
Top 50 Power List
CEPI’s New Director General: ‘A Remarkable Industry'
Värö’s Expansion for the Future
Model Behavior: Understanding Virtual Process Integration
Mondi Štĕtí Chooses Direct Drive Technology
The Knowledge Trail
TAPPI Journal Summaries
How Does China’s Containerboard Market Compare to the US?
Industry Trends in Graphic Paper
Will China Ban Mixed Paper Imports?
TAPPI News
ASPI News
Index of Advertisers
Paper360 - July/August 2017 - intro
Paper360 - July/August 2017 - bellyband1
Paper360 - July/August 2017 - bellyband2
Paper360 - July/August 2017 - cover1
Paper360 - July/August 2017 - cover2
Paper360 - July/August 2017 - 3
Paper360 - July/August 2017 - 4
Paper360 - July/August 2017 - 5
Paper360 - July/August 2017 - Setpoint
Paper360 - July/August 2017 - 7
Paper360 - July/August 2017 - Over the Wire
Paper360 - July/August 2017 - 9
Paper360 - July/August 2017 - 10
Paper360 - July/August 2017 - 11
Paper360 - July/August 2017 - 12
Paper360 - July/August 2017 - 13
Paper360 - July/August 2017 - Euroports Extends Its Reach
Paper360 - July/August 2017 - 15
Paper360 - July/August 2017 - 16
Paper360 - July/August 2017 - 17
Paper360 - July/August 2017 - 18
Paper360 - July/August 2017 - 19
Paper360 - July/August 2017 - Ensuring a Tight Load
Paper360 - July/August 2017 - 21
Paper360 - July/August 2017 - Riding the Rails
Paper360 - July/August 2017 - 23
Paper360 - July/August 2017 - Trailer Flooring Makes a Difference in Paper Roll Transport
Paper360 - July/August 2017 - 25
Paper360 - July/August 2017 - 26
Paper360 - July/August 2017 - Top 50 Power List
Paper360 - July/August 2017 - 28
Paper360 - July/August 2017 - 29
Paper360 - July/August 2017 - 30
Paper360 - July/August 2017 - 31
Paper360 - July/August 2017 - 32
Paper360 - July/August 2017 - 33
Paper360 - July/August 2017 - 34
Paper360 - July/August 2017 - 35
Paper360 - July/August 2017 - 36
Paper360 - July/August 2017 - 37
Paper360 - July/August 2017 - CEPI’s New Director General: ‘A Remarkable Industry'
Paper360 - July/August 2017 - 39
Paper360 - July/August 2017 - 40
Paper360 - July/August 2017 - 41
Paper360 - July/August 2017 - Värö’s Expansion for the Future
Paper360 - July/August 2017 - 43
Paper360 - July/August 2017 - Model Behavior: Understanding Virtual Process Integration
Paper360 - July/August 2017 - 45
Paper360 - July/August 2017 - 46
Paper360 - July/August 2017 - 47
Paper360 - July/August 2017 - Mondi Štĕtí Chooses Direct Drive Technology
Paper360 - July/August 2017 - 49
Paper360 - July/August 2017 - The Knowledge Trail
Paper360 - July/August 2017 - 51
Paper360 - July/August 2017 - TAPPI Journal Summaries
Paper360 - July/August 2017 - 53
Paper360 - July/August 2017 - 54
Paper360 - July/August 2017 - 55
Paper360 - July/August 2017 - How Does China’s Containerboard Market Compare to the US?
Paper360 - July/August 2017 - 57
Paper360 - July/August 2017 - Industry Trends in Graphic Paper
Paper360 - July/August 2017 - 59
Paper360 - July/August 2017 - Will China Ban Mixed Paper Imports?
Paper360 - July/August 2017 - 61
Paper360 - July/August 2017 - 62
Paper360 - July/August 2017 - 63
Paper360 - July/August 2017 - 64
Paper360 - July/August 2017 - 65
Paper360 - July/August 2017 - 66
Paper360 - July/August 2017 - TAPPI News
Paper360 - July/August 2017 - ASPI News
Paper360 - July/August 2017 - 69
Paper360 - July/August 2017 - Index of Advertisers
Paper360 - July/August 2017 - cover3
Paper360 - July/August 2017 - cover4
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