SSDA Today - Fall/Winter 2016 - 11
COVER STORY
Ballot Measure Wild Card:
Gov. Jerry Brown
BY KEVIN GORDON, CAPITOL ADVISORS GROUP
I
n what will arguably be the most
important statewide election for public
schools in over a decade, the outcome
may be hugely impacted by the engagement of Gov. Jerry Brown. Two ballot
measures in particular, Proposition 51,
the $9 billion school facilities bond, and
Proposition 55, that extends the personal
income tax increase enacted under the
previous Proposition 30, are not favorites
of the very popular governor. During the
course of the last many months, there has
been concern over the governor's open
hostility to both measures among those
in the education community who hold
strong support for the propositions.
Just after Proposition 55 began to be
circulated for signatures early in the year,
Gov. Brown called the measure "fatally
flawed," due to provisions he characterized as undermining the will of statewide
voters who had enacted his signature
rainy day fund, Proposition 2. That measure requires a set-aside of new revenues
for a budget reserve and payments for
long-term state debt obligations. When
the proponents of Prop 55 began seeking signatures from registered voters, the
measure's language deliberately left out
the set-aside for the rainy day fund after
2018 when the governor leaves office. The
governor discovered the language had
been deleted and then publicly addressed
it in his January launch of his annual state
budget. Within a few short days, the proponents pulled back their language and
resubmitted it with verbiage that maintained payments to the rainy day fund
into the future.
Proponents of Prop 55 acknowledged
that the governor's public criticism and
potential activism would significantly
jeopardize passage of the ballot proposition. Shortly after the change, Gov. Brown
was quoted acknowledging the positive
nature of the language adjustment.
Neutralizing Brown on the tax extension
has been broadly viewed as essential
given the enormous role he played in
guiding the original Prop 30 to passage.
Gov. Brown not only acknowledged the
positive nature of the change, he took
an opportunity at the announcement of
his May revision to point out that without passage of the extension of Prop 30,
California would be more than $4 billion
in the hole. He stopped short of backing the measure, but said he believed
that California voters should make the
decision without his input. The move to
a more neutral position has invigorated
the campaign to pass Prop 55.
Recent polling of likely California voters
has made it clear that voters are inclined to
approve it, but any kind of organized opposition campaign and particularly active
opposition by the governor could dramatically change its odds for the worse. It is
looking increasingly likely the governor
will not interfere with the campaign led
by major public employee unions to pass
Prop 55. Additionally, the K-12 education
community across California has a much
clearer understanding of the implications
for potential budget cuts a dramatic reduction in state revenue could have if there
is not an extension of some of the taxes
previously approved by voters. In fact, the
number of school districts backing Prop
55 has already well outstripped the level
of school support that existed when the
taxes were originally passed.
Proposition 51 is also essential for the
K-14 community as it provides an essential
refueling of the school finance system that
serves as a match to locally raised funds
for modernization and new construction. Here again, Gov. Brown's sentiment
against the statewide school bond has
been clear. Once the measure had clearly
qualified for the ballot, Gov. Brown issued
a formal statement of opposition. There is
little question that the governor's opposition to a measure broadly supported
by almost everyone else would still have
negative implications for the election outcome. Veteran election observers have
noted that statewide ballots containing
a particularly large number of measures
tend to result in an increased number
of "no" votes for every measure. With
17 different statewide measures set for
consideration this November, anything
negative can help sink a measure that
might otherwise get more votes.
There is hope that Gov. Brown has
concluded any further comment or
engagement in the school bond. He is
very focused on passing Proposition 57,
an overhaul of juvenile crime sentencing
that will change the rules regarding parole
from State prison. More notably, the governor's signature water project is threatened by the passage of Proposition 53,
a measure requiring voter approval of
any revenue bond projects exceeding
$2 billion. The only project that meets the
definition in the measure is the Governor's
ambitious, multi-billion dollar water plan.
The governor will need to spend his considerable political fund, still fat from the
lack of spending in his re-election bid,
on passing Proposition 57 and defeating
Proposition 53.
Voters, meanwhile, are leaning in the
direction of the school-oriented measures with support above the commonly
thought thresholds needed to win once
the election is upon us. The education
community will need to rally on both
Propositions 55 and 51 in order to set the
course for a better decade ahead.
●
Kevin Gordon,
Capitol Advisors Group
SSDA TODAY | WWW.SSDA.ORG
11
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Table of Contents for the Digital Edition of SSDA Today - Fall/Winter 2016
Executive Director's Column
New Federal Guidance on Transgender Bathroom Access
List of Initiatives Headed to November Ballot Long and Diverse
Ballot Measure Wild Card: Gov. Jerry Brown
What Every Leader Needs to Know about Technology: Education Innovation Alliance
Is Your Compensation “Creditable” Towards Retirement? New CalSTRS Regulations Seek to Further Clarify the Answer
Super Strong: The Extraordinary Nature of Leadership Resilience
News and Notes
Advertiser's Index
SSDA Today - Fall/Winter 2016
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