Trésorier/Treasurer magazine - N°84 - Jan/Feb/Mar 2014 - (Page 77)
The Financial
Risk Observatory
by Hugues Pirotte (FinMetrics)
1. Too much harmonisation might not necessarily produce less fragile networks
2. E.g., the EU is financing two big research projects called FOC (Forecasting Financial Crisis, focpro-
Some air of déjà vu...
Avoiding rare but heavy disruptions is
key when you play with systemic risk and
the risk of propagation of problems. For
the rest, me must be careful about keeping a free choice of liquidity vectors and
the capacity to take alternative routes
when obstacles appear. And finally,
liquidity is not about amounts (only) but
about circulation of those amounts. All of
our real economy and our tax system are
based on the velocity of those exchanges.
And of course, it is the same velocity
and interconnectivity that also creates
systemic risk.
There is "some" research on network
theory today going on2. We can cite the
following piece of work that was recently
published in Nature: "Default Cascades
in Complex Networks: Topology and
Systemic Risk"3 . It is clearly shown for
example that various characteristics
combine in making a financial network
more or less fragile. There is no single
solution and each type of network has its
own fragility points.
More concretely, and trying to think in
terms of economics rather than physics,
whatever you impose at the micro level,
is not necessarily producing the best
outcome at the macro level. We can show
that imposing rules without being aware
of additional asymmetries they might
create, can lead to more macro instability.
/ FEV / MAR 2014
In our last edition, we stressed the point
of view that there is a growing need to
make sure to be heard by politicians
on how to examine and judge financial
markets, not only through the eye of
banking and trading, but in terms of the
real economy they are impacting through
these rules.
Treasurers can be very good advocates
for an efficient financial system, simply
because Treasurers act as supporters of
a real "Main Street" activity first, not a
"Wall Street" activity. The objective of
the Treasurer is not to make profits on
financial markets but to be able to access
the desired liquidity on time. Not for
him, but for a firm that needs it. And the
firm has all sorts of stakeholders. In that
sense, Corporate Treasurers seek what
economists vow to financial markets:
to be the numeraire's exchange grid of
the real economy. This should therefore
allow Corporate Treasurers to be more
vocal about the net implications of some
changes, not because they are lobbied by
bankers, but because they need to lobby
for themselves.
The new money market fund directive
proposal (issued in September) is a good
example.
It starts back from the definition of shadow banking, which I personally always
found quite peculiar. Some institutions
were maybe "in the shadows" for some
but not for the rest of the market. They
are an integrative part of the system. To
say that money market funds (MMF) are
systemically important is a tautology. As
vectors of important liquidity, and liquidity being the energy of the grid, they
have their place.
Now, being an important part of the
system means that we might indeed be
worried about what they can do and what
they cannot do. But at the same time, it
means that -1- we must be careful about
how to make sure they can still perform
efficiently, and - 2 - they must be able to
obey to the same market rules than the
others. We must also never forget that
market participants are supposed to judge
and make their own decisions. Corporate
treasurers don't manage the money of remote depositors who have no control on
the managers; it is their own. Therefore,
there must be quite responsible themselves already in making their buy/sell
decisions. Of course, the regulator can be
very helpful to make sure that everybody
plays on the same common playground.
But we said "common playground", not
"perfect harmonisation"1 .
LE MAGAZINE DU TRESORIER / TREASURER MAGAZINE - N°84 - JAN
Back to our role
in the society...
ject.eu) and CRISIS (Complexity Research Initiative for Systemic Instabilities, crisis-economics.eu)
that are dealing with these issues.
3. www.nature.com/srep/2013/130926/srep02759/full/srep02759.html4. Source: World Economic
Outlook Database, IMF Calculations
4. http://www.frbatlanta.org/news/conferen/09fmc/gorton.pdf
77
http://www.ject.eu
http://www.crisis-economics.eu
http://www.nature.com/srep/2013/130926/srep02759/full/srep02759.html4
http://www.frbatlanta.org/news/conferen/09fmc/gorton.pdf
Table des matières de la publication Trésorier/Treasurer magazine - N°84 - Jan/Feb/Mar 2014
Couverture
SOMMAIRE
EDITORIAL
FINANCIAL HIGHLIGHTS Luxembourg Tax News
INTERVIEW Martin Sadleder- Treamo Business Consulting
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15 MINUTES WITH CRX Markets
NEWS
THE FINANCIAL RISK OBSERVATORY
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