JEC COMPOSITES MAGAZINE - Issue #135 - July/August 2020 - 46

FEATURE
testimonials

Aeronautics: now what?
The period is exceptional for the aeronautical sector and we
were all shocked to see all these planes nailed to the ground
because of Covid-19. What exactly will happen tomorrow? To
try to better understand the situation and the scenarios for
tomorrow, JEC Composites Magazine approached some key
players in the sector.

hen this article was started, the
only concern for the aeronautic
industry was to keep delivery
times on schedule. At the end of 2019, the
Global Aerospace and Defense Industry
Group forecast 1900 commercial aircraft
produced in 2020. It seemed that the aerospace industry knew no crisis. Life around
the world was different, markets and the
economy were "normal" as much as they
obviously could be.
Then, in a short time, everything changed
and even what was already written suddenly
became obsolete and unusable. The perfect
storm of Covid-19 really changed everything
in a few weeks. Including, of course, the aviation industry, and in particular civil aviation.
Suddenly, no one was able to move anymore,
the airplanes were grounded and the crisis
reached the aircraft production sector as well,
like an unexpected lightning bolt. Suddenly,
with the progressive reduction of flights, the
main two plane manufacturers in the world,
Boeing and Airbus, who had long since
engaged in a challenge on who produced
more, found themselves in a situation of total
emergency. Not forgetting that Boeing already had the problem of grounding the 737
Max for two years following two dramatic
accidents.
As if this were not enough, orders for 150

737 Max were cancelled in March due to the
virus. In addition, the production of 787s
was suspended at the South Carolina plant,
resulting in a total stop in the production of
commercial aircraft after a similar shutdown
at the Seattle production site, due to the
spread of the epidemic. In an attempt to gain
immediate cash, Boeing asked the federal
government for a bailout of $60 billion, despite opposing a possible government entry
into the shareholding structure. Boeing reported Q1 2020 revenues of $16.9 billion, a
26% decrease from $22.9 billion in revenues
in Q1 2019.
In a letter sent to employees on last April 29,
Boeing President and CEO Dave Calhoun
wrote: "The pandemic is also delivering a body
blow to our business, affecting airline customer
demand, production continuity and supply
chain stability. The demand for commercial
airline travel has fallen off a cliff, with U.S.
passenger volumes down more than 95%
compared to last year. Globally, commercial
airline revenue is expected to drop by $314
billion this year".
He went on to say that the aviation industry
will take years to return to the traffic levels of
a few months ago. Therefore, the production
of the 737 Max will be resumed as soon as
possible, in a reduced and gradual way to
reach 31 aircraft per month in 2021, with
gradual increases to meet the market demand. Ten 787 per month will be produced
in 2020 and seven per month by 2022.

jec composites magazine / N°135 July - August 2020

Fig.1: Boeing 737 first flight

Reductions are also expected in the production of other models. The only models that
will continue the same production rate will
be the 767 and the 747. He concluded by
saying that, unfortunately, the demand will
be much lower than expected in the coming
years and therefore reductions in the number
of employees of around 10% are expected.
On the defence front too, the risk of recession
is fuelling fears of returning to the budget cuts
experienced after the 2008 crisis everywhere.
However, the Pentagon has already started

JEC COMPOSITES MAGAZINE - Issue #135 - July/August 2020

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