Boutique Design - January/February 2010 - (Page 26)

S T A T E O F T H E I N D U S T R Y Top Hospitality Researchers Share Analyses & Forecasts for 2009, 2010 & Beyond B Y K E L L Y H U S H I N “As you are well aware, we have had negative operospitality is known as an industry that is both Patrick Ford ating trends on a year-over-year basis. That’s likely to resilient and vulnerable to economic cycles. continue through the first quarter and probably reach When the economy slides, people need the comsome sort of bottom in terms of comparisons yearmunal embrace that hospitality environments provide, but over-year perhaps in the second quarter. The operating they don’t want to and often can’t pay a premium for it. trends compared with the same weeks last year are Thus, hospitality venues are left with a choice: drop rates still negative. Month-end totals are still negative this and maintain sales, or hold steady and weather a period period compared to 2008; they’re still negative at the with more empty rooms, bar stools and spa beds. There isn’t operating statistics level. Occupancy, RevPar…all still a clear answer as to which works better — it all depends on negative. The pace of those declines is slowing, it will the property, its brand and its targeted clientele. No matter what choice properties made, 2009 was tough. The bad news is that continue to slow into the first quarter. And we’re hopeful that those 2010 will be tough too. The good news is that we are seeing the bottom, period-versus-period variances will bottom out. We expect that to and from there the only way to go is up. Most analysts and trend fore- occur probably in the second quarter of 2010. I have found that gencasting groups predict that in 2010 the market will start to bounce back, erally the bottoming in the lodging industry will track approximately and some optimistic reports suggest it will come back even sooner than two quarters after the bottoming in the economy.” was expected. The even better news for high-end design lovers is that — PATRICK FORD, PRESIDENT, LODGING ECONOMETRICS upscale markets seem to be better positioned than some economy chains. Just as was predicted when heading into this downturn, travel“2010 will be a year of starts and stops. From an occupancy perers are continuing to be more discerning in their hotel choices and thus spective, the industry will continue the stabilization that we have it will be the niche brands that come out on top. seen in the last few months. Historically, downturns in our industry From current research by Smith Travel Research (STR), PKF last 18 months. We are currently 12 months into this downturn. Hospitality Research (PKF-HR), Over the past few months we have seen the declines lessen and Lodging Econometrics, HVS and one region of the world (Asia Pacific) even realized occupancy The Industry at a Glance TravelCLICK Inc., consumers and growth in September. This same trend will continue and we should 2008 figures (2009 available mid-2010) industry professionals can glean begin realizing some minor occupancy growth toward the latter part lots of hard facts, but perhaps more of the second quarter to early part of the third quarter.” 49,505 properties importantly, some hope. Yes, infor4,626,348 guestrooms — KRISTI WHITE, DIRECTOR OF REVENUE OPTIMIZATION, mation from such organizations $140.6 billion in slaes TRAVELCLICK INC. shows grim 2009 numbers, but $64.37 RevPAR forecasts for the year and years 60.4% average occupancy rate NUMBER OF HOTEL PROJECTS 2010-2012 ahead look considerably better. In Construction Final Planning Planning Total Pre-Planning CHAINSCALE Here, we share some of the most Typical Lodging Customer Open Date 2010 noteworthy facts and figures sur43% traveled for business 12 1 13 Luxury 20 2 3 25 Upper Upscale rounding the hospitality industry 57% traveled for leisure 149 132 78 359 Upscale 28 28 100 Midscale w/ F&B today and tomorrow. Midscale w/o F&B 263 266 163 692 H Source: AH&LA’s 2008 Lodging Industry Profile Economy Unaffiliated A DOWNWARD SPIRAL TAKES AN UPWARD TURN…SOON No one is jumping out of their seats with excitement about the hospitality industry’s recovery…yet. Professional hospitality industry researchers like Patrick Ford of Lodging Econometrics, take a realistic stance on the subject, noting that the first half of 2010 will remain difficult. However, he and others like Kristi White from TravelCLICK Inc., a leader in hotel ecommerce solutions that provides business intelligence, distribution, revenue optimization expertise and digital marketing solutions, say that things are looking up for the latter half of 2010 and into 2011. 26 • boutique DESIGN january/february 2010 TOTAL Open Date 2012 and Later Luxury Upper Upscale Upscale Midscale w/ F&B Midscale w/o F&B Economy Unaffiliated TOTAL 6 18 7 48 2 3 4 4 2 77 12 36 87 19 99 23 448 724 16 29 2 3 25 13 44 22 22 129 6 24 126 34 159 73 951 1,373 10 30 155 51 203 93 989 1,531 Source: Smith Travel Research TOTAL Open Date 2011 Luxury Upper Upscale Upscale Midscale w/ F&B Midscale w/o F&B Economy Unaffiliated 24 73 585 1 4 12 8 29 465 3 7 38 2 26 14 5 95 1 9 283 5 20 220 57 441 8 37 788 33 111 1,333 9 31 270 59 473 40 49 931 — 4 9 12 50

Table of Contents for the Digital Edition of Boutique Design - January/February 2010

Boutique Design - January/February 2010
Contents
Q&A with Paul Heretakis
Business Sense
State of the Industry
By Honing in on Innovative firms, the Brand Design Team at W Hotels Has Brought the Company into its "Second Age"
Architect/Designer Rober Henry Teams with Chef Shaun Hergatt for and Intense Collaboration on a new Wall Street Restaurant SHO
The Deliberate Design Behind Andre Kikoski's New Cabin-Inspired Restaurant in Denver, Second Home
DREAMbook
Designology
The Design Team Behind Missoni Discusses Its New Foray into the Hotel Industry
Stacy Garcia Reveals Her Style Forecasts for 2010
The Sparkling Soiree BD Threw in Manhattan to Celebrate Boutique DESIGN New York and the Gold Key Design Award Winners
Calendar/Advertisers Index

Boutique Design - January/February 2010