ISTAT Jetrader - Autumn 2020 - 31

fundamental change. We have to start
adjusting our beliefs and take a look at
the reality. From that, we take action.
And that's when we see appraisers
come out with discounting values. But
there's more to that story.
So, why does this all really matter?
It matters because we are well beyond
previous events. This puts 9/11,
the global financial crisis, the Gulf
War, SARS and everything else into
perspective. This is something we've
never modeled for. So, what does that
mean? Is this the 100-year flood, or
is it the 1,000-year flood, and will this
happen again? If we model to that, then
we'll never get anything done. We have
to learn our lessons and take guidance
from previous cycles. We knew when
this started to happen - when we
started to shut down networks and
airlines started to ground fleets -
what was going to happen. We learned
our lessons from 9/11. We knew from
9/11 that fleets disappeared. What was
flying on Sept. 10 did not necessarily
fly again on Sept. 12. Those were
727s, 737-200s, older aircraft, DC9s that were still in use at that time
that became irrelevant to a network.
Airlines started to focus on the more
efficient aircraft and started to pull
out some of the older aircraft. So,
while these guardrails and the severity
measures that we saw in previous
downturns start the discussions, it
won't necessarily be the definitive
outcome. That definitive outcome is
yet to be written. That narrative is still
yet to come. We will look back and go,
"Oh, that all made sense." But while
we're in it, and we're all in it together,
we can't ignore the market. We can't
ignore what is happening in front of us.
We can't just put our head in the sand.
The world is a new place, and we can't
ignore what the market has been telling
us. We can't ignore what the market is
today. So, no, we don't want to lead the
market, but it would be egregious for
us not to recognize what's happening.
The takeaway is that this will change
everyone. Nobody will come out of this

unscathed: appraiser, lessor, bank or
OEM. You should look at this and say
"What do we learn from this? How can
we do this better? How can we make
sure we're putting the right precautions
in place?"
We are in extraordinary times, and
we're all in this together, but we all
have a right to adjust the dial and see
what's happening. It's easy to make
broad brushstrokes in the beginning.

You kind of have to. You kind of have
to say we know that old widebodies
will have a hard time. We know that old
narrowbodies and some of the older
aircraft that are facing maintenance
events probably will be parked and
retired and removed from the system
forever. But it's the stuff in the middle.
What does that mean for the rest?
We have to look at what the market
is telling us. We are seeing 787s and

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Jetrader

* AUTUMN 2020 * 3 1


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ISTAT Jetrader - Autumn 2020

Table of Contents for the Digital Edition of ISTAT Jetrader - Autumn 2020

ISTAT Jetrader - Autumn 2020 - Intro
ISTAT Jetrader - Autumn 2020 - Cover1
ISTAT Jetrader - Autumn 2020 - Cover2
ISTAT Jetrader - Autumn 2020 - 1
ISTAT Jetrader - Autumn 2020 - 2
ISTAT Jetrader - Autumn 2020 - 3
ISTAT Jetrader - Autumn 2020 - 4
ISTAT Jetrader - Autumn 2020 - 5
ISTAT Jetrader - Autumn 2020 - 6
ISTAT Jetrader - Autumn 2020 - 7
ISTAT Jetrader - Autumn 2020 - 8
ISTAT Jetrader - Autumn 2020 - 9
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ISTAT Jetrader - Autumn 2020 - Cover3
ISTAT Jetrader - Autumn 2020 - Cover4
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