ISTAT Jetrader - Autumn 2021 - 27

AVIATION GROSS AND NET EMISSIONS TO 2050
0.50
1.00
1.50
2.00
2.50
3.00
- Gross emissions if no new technology is deployed - Gross emissions if technology is deployed - Target 1: -50% by 2050 in net emissions - Target 2: Zero net emissions
2005
2007
2009
2011
2013
2015
2017
2019
2021
2023
2025
2027
2029
2031
2033
2035
2037
2039
2041
2043
2045
2047
2049
Source: JPM, IATA and IAG, June 2021
Improved air traffic management (ATM) is probably
the lowest hanging fruit. In Europe, the consensus is that
improved ATM could reduce CO2
emissions by 10%. The
Single European Sky has yet to be implemented at time of
writing, however. Strong pressure by airlines, lessors and
the traveling public should insist on ATM improvements to
their local governments.
New production aircraft and engines offer around 10%20%
fuel burn reduction versus the previous generation
aircraft. Replacement of some four-engine aircraft for
new engines are subject to significant, and likely lengthy,
certification requirements.
SAF, a laudable endeavor, will have a very tough time
providing scale in the near term; one trade group believes SAF
might power up to 2% of all flights by 2025. While it provides
an approximate 80% reduction in emissions, there is concern
that suitable raw materials will be difficult to track. Pricing
for SAF remains anywhere from two to seven times as much
as conventional jet fuel at present. However, as production
increases and price decreases, this could be an alternative
Strong pressure by airlines, lessors and the traveling public should insist on air
traffic management improvements to their local governments.
two power plants can be higher. We have seen some
turboprops replacing older regional jets at 30%-40%
improvement per ATR. For those who complain aviation
isn't doing enough, it is worth keeping in mind one selfserving
fact: Fuel is usually the second largest expense at
an airline after labor (and ahead of combined aircraft rent
and ownership) at about 20%. Thus, it is, and has been,
in airlines' own best interests to reduce this cost. Average
fuel burn of new aircraft fell 41% from 1970 to 2019. The
retirements of older equipment, including four-engine
jets, in 2020 may see this percentage increase further;
the IEA believes this will provide an " overall reduction ...
in fuel burn ... of around 8%. " However, there is a
natural limit to engine improvements. Furthermore, these
power source for long-haul flights in the future. Ironically,
as automotive manufacturers seek to produce - either
exclusively or in majority - electric vehicles, the reduction
in demand for biofuels for cars and trucks might slow the
development of, and price decreases in, SAF.
Step change technologies, new propulsion technologies
and carbon sequestration/direct air capture do not exist for
aviation - in commercial terms - yet. It remains to be seen
if these will be at scale to reach the 2050 target date of zero
net emissions in the sector.
In the meantime, let's work constructively together, building
a common argument for the promotion of realistic technological
advancements that are achievable and acceptable for this
essential and productive global business.
Jetrader * AUTUMN 2021 * 27

ISTAT Jetrader - Autumn 2021

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