ISTAT Jetrader - Autumn 2021 - 32

APPRAISAL
Airbus A320ceo
Wes Romaine
ISTAT Certified Appraiser
Vice President
ACI Aviation Consulting
wromaine@aciaviation.com
aciaviation.com
Photo courtesy of Isaac Struna.
T
he A320ceo family,
which consists of the
A318, A319, A320
and A321, is widely
regarded as one of
the most successful
aircraft programs
in commercial aviation history with
over 8,000 produced, including 4,752
A320ceos (the focus of this article).
Since first delivery in 1988, the program
has seen many improvements and
notable upgrades to its powerplants, as
well as the incorporation of sharklets
and flexible cabin configurations (e.g.,
Space-Flex). These valuable additions
have helped to extend the life of the
program. The cessation of the program
is near; however, a total of 35 A320ceo
family remain on order, of which 18 are
for the A320ceo.
Rising fuel costs during the
2000s sparked the development of
more efficient narrowbody aircraft.
Ultimately, Airbus and Boeing opted
to reengine their respective existing
narrowbody platforms, rather than
undertaking a time-consuming and
more expensive clean sheet program.
In 2010, Airbus officially launched the
A320neo (new engine option), which
was expected to provide, at minimum,
a 15% reduction in operating costs
versus the ceo - a goal which has
been exceeded. Although well below
pre-global financial crisis peaks, Brent
oil was still approximately US$80bbl at
32 * THE OF F I C I AL PUBL I CAT I ON OF ISTAT
launch and remained above US$100bbl
from the beginning of January 2011 to
the middle of 2014, aiding the neofamily
order book. However, by the time
of the first A320neo delivery in January
2016, Brent was below US$50bbl and
has only briefly exceeded US$80bbl
since, extending the economic viability
of older vintage aircraft of the previous
generation. With Brent now within
range of its five-year high and demand
down from the prior peak due to
Age
0 to 12 Years Old
13 to 18 Years Old
19 to 25 Years Old
26+ Years Old
1
Active Units
2,114
555
271
78
the pandemic, along with an aging
installed fleet, demand for older vintage
narrowbodies is declining.
Although some 26-plus-year-old
A320ceos continue to fly, many have
already been retired, and a large
portion of the currently stored older
aircraft are unlikely to return to service.
As for freighter conversions potentially
providing a floor for values of younger
A320ceos, although EFW offers the
A320/A321P2F conversion program, the
A320CEO BY VINTAGE
Stored Units
665
282
228
199
Beyond repair, crashed, derelict and scrapped
Source: ch-aviation GmbH - June 2021
A320CEO TOP OPERATORS
Operator
China Eastern Airlines
JetBlue Airways
China Southern Airlines
United Airlines
IndiGo Airlines
easyJet Europe
Spring Airlines
Shenzhen Airlines
Allegiant Air
Vueling Airlines
A320ceo In Fleet
179
130
107
96
93
83
80
76
76
76
A320neo Ordered/
Delivered/In Fleet
57/57/59
-
15/15/38
-
332/122/122
129/37/37
45/12/18
20/20/20
-
33/25/25
Source: ceo: ch-aviation GmbH - June 2021. neo: Airbus - May 31, 2021
Other1
5
17
85
213
http://www.aciaviation.com
ISTAT Jetrader - Autumn 2021

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