ISTAT Jetrader - Autumn 2021 - 33

expectation is that the A321ceo will see
most of the activity and, to date, has
seen all of the orders.
As of May 2021, the A320neo had
amassed an impressive 3,855 orders,
of which 1,242 had been delivered.
Their ongoing delivery, and announced
production increases, will place
downward pressure on A320ceo values.
Furthermore, Airbus has announced
development work utilizing either
hybrid-electric or hydrogen power. While
at least a decade away, introduction
would likely negatively impact younger
vintage A320ceo values.
The A320ceo is broadly dispersed
globally, with 44% found in Asia, 27%
in Europe and 18% in North America.
The A320ceo also has a diversified
operator base, with China Eastern
Airlines operating the largest with 179
units, or a modest 4% of the active/
stored fleet. Of the top 10 A320ceo
operators, who account for 23% of the
fleet, seven also operate the A320neo.
Excluding the CFM56-5A and
V2500-A1 engines found on earlier
A320ceos, the CFM56-5B has a
market share of 60% versus 40% for
the V2500-A5. Given the incremental
liquidity, ACI is of the opinion that
CFM-engined A320ceos have slightly
higher values than those equipped
1
Engine Type
CFM56-5A
CFM56-5B
V2500-A1
V2500-A5
A320CEO BY ENGINE TYPE
Stored
152
689
62
Active
79
1,778
15
1,146
Beyond repair, crashed, derelict and scrapped
Source: ch-aviation GmbH - June 2021
with the IAE powerplant. Within the
A320ceo market, aircraft with Tech
Insertion CFM engines (first installed in
2007 and retrofittable) and SelectOne
IAE engines (first installed in 2008 and
also retrofittable) are preferred, with an
approximate 3% to 5% value premium.
Value Opinions
At the trough of flying in April 2020,
nearly 75% of the A320ceo fleet had
been removed from service, but, as of
June, about 60% of the fleet was in
active service and increasing. Many
forecasts point to air travel recovering
to pre-COVID-19 levels sometime
between 2023 and 2025 but, at this
time, economic uncertainty abounds,
and travel restrictions/lockdowns
continue to be imposed worldwide.
ACI's Base Value opinions assume the
recovery of domestic and short/medium
range international activity will see
A320CEO
(CFM56-5B6 with Tech Insert or V2527-A5 SelectOne Engines. MTOW - MDPT between basic and max)
Market
Value
YOM
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2004
2009
2014
2019
2021
4.83
4.83
5.67
6.30
6.89
7.51
8.16
12.14
2021
4.93
4.93
5.79
6.43
7.03
7.67
8.33
12.36
18.09 18.33
26.88
37.98
27.17
2022
-
-
4.65
5.49
6.19
6.86
7.53
11.45
17.10
2023
-
-
-
4.61
5.39
6.09
6.77
10.59
15.95
25.35 23.67
Values in millions of US$
Future values assume 2% compound annual inflation
Jetrader * AUTUMN 2021 * 33
2024
-
-
-
-
4.63
5.37
6.06
9.77
14.86
22.11
2025
-
-
-
-
-
4.68
5.38
9.00
13.84
20.66
Base Values
2026
-
-
-
-
-
-
4.75
8.27
12.87
19.30
2027
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
7.57
2028 2029 2030
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
6.92
11.96 11.09
18.03
16.83
38.39 35.60 33.08 30.81 28.73 26.83 25.08 23.47
-
-
-
-
-
-
6.30
10.28
15.71
21.97
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
5.72
9.50
14.65
20.58
2031
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
5.17
8.77
13.66
19.27
a return to 2019 levels in 2023, with
historical growth trends thereafter.
After very limited trading activity
early in the pandemic, in the first half
of 2021, ACI saw a slow increase in
sale/lease-back transactions and
extensions, albeit at below prepandemic
sale and rent levels. Despite
the impact of the pandemic, the June
2021 edition of Airfax showed 65
A320ceos available for sale or lease,
a quite limited 2% of the active fleet.
ACI suspects that owners of some of
the parked/stored fleet have either
abandoned attempts to sell/lease or are
holding out for further improvement in
market conditions.
Early in the pandemic, a larger
disparity between Base and Market
Values was evident across many types.
ACI is of the opinion that this gap is
narrowing and market conditions/values
are improving for the A320ceo.
471
Other1
138
49
66
67
ISTAT Jetrader - Autumn 2021

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