ISTAT Jetrader - Autumn 2021 - 35

shedding problems on performance
improvement package I (PIP I) engines
and a fan blade rubbing event that
could potentially cause thrust loss
from nonstarting engines following
shutdown have been remedied. In mid2020,
the FAA issued an AD relating
to subsurface anomalies in the HPT
2 rotor disk for PIP II engines that
could lead to an uncontained engine
failure. The AD requires an ultrasonic
inspection of the rotor disk at the next
shop visit, but no later than 6,500
cycles; should anomalies be detected,
replacement would be required before
further flight. Once replaced, no further
inspection is required.
As first run GEnx-1B shop visits will
start to coincide with mature visits, GE
is preparing for the ramp up with its
MRO partners. GE and TrueChoice MRO
partners are aiming to maintain a typical
100-day turnaround, something that is
achievable, although it might depend
on the level of service agreement
customers within TrueChoice have.
MRO providers servicing the GEnx-1B
are Air France KLM E&M, Air India,
General Electric Caledonian, Celma,
Evergreen and JAL Engineering. In
addition, Ethiopian Airlines, HNA Technic
and Sanad Aerotech have all invested
significantly to gain GE licensing and
the capability to maintain the GEnx-1B
engine. Sanad Aerotech, for example, is
expecting around 320 engines inducted
into its shop over the next 15 years,
and Ethiopian's facility investment has
exceeded US$30m.
Ongoing during MRO visits are
a series of durability upgrades for
scheduled engine maintenance. For
nonsevere environments, engines will
be equipped with a new combustion
liner; MarM combustor mixer; and phase
1 HPT stage 1 blade, with advanced
coating. Engines operating in severe
environments will gain upgrades
including a new combustor; fuel nozzle
phase 2 HPT stage 1 blade; and HPT
stage 1 nozzles and shrouds.
Counterpoint thinks that the GEnx-1B engine
has proven more attractive to investors than equivalents,
and hence it has transacted well with independent spare
engine lessors.
Value Commentary
Counterpoint classify the GEnx-1B
engine as the most liquid and soughtafter
current build widebody engine. We
think it has proven more attractive to
investors than equivalents, and hence
it has transacted well with independent
spare engine lessors. We are of the
opinion that a GEnx-1B74/75 engine
has a current half-life market value of
US$19.7m (and a hypothetical new halflife
value of US$21.8m). Mature half-life
base value forecasts for specific GEnx1B
engine thrust variants and propulsors
are provided in the chart below.
Hypothetical
Maintenance Adjusted
Appraisal Scenario
Appraisal assignments of GEnx-1B
engines tend to be for new engines;
engines on their first shop visit run;
or engines on their second run. We
think it would be helpful to provide an
appropriate appraisal example based
on the average age and expected
utilisation of the GEnx-1B engine
fleet in service. Counterpoint is of
the opinion that a GEnx-1B74/75
PIP II Propulsor with around 60%
LLP life remaining and around 93%
restoration life remaining, with REE
(required engine equipment) and RAE
(required airframe equipment), having
completed its first shop visit, has a
hypothetical maintenance adjusted
market value of US$23.3m. This
assumes a Time/Cycle Since Last
Shop Visit of approximately 2,000
hours/200 cycles; 6.45 flight hour to
flight cycle ratio (FH:FC); and an LLP
limiter interval of 34,840 hours or
5,400 cycles.
MATURE HALF-LIFE BASE VALUE FORECAST
(assumes 0% inflation)
$10,000,000
$15,000,000
$20,000,000
$25,000,000
$5,000,000
$0
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
2031
- GEnx-1B74/75/P2G01 (PIP2) - GEnx-1B67/P2G01 (PIP2) - GEnx-1B74/75-P (PIP2) - GEnx-1B67-P (PIP2)
Jetrader * AUTUMN 2021 * 35
US$ Millions

ISTAT Jetrader - Autumn 2021

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