ISTAT Jetrader - Spring 2021 - 27

embracing a new agenda - a bit like
what we've seen on the electric car
side. This is very important, because
you realize the excitement that all
of a sudden has been injected into
an industry that was perceived to
be more like a dinosaur industry. I
think aerospace is very much on the
front foot on this; they've embraced
very quickly a green agenda, green
milestones, thanks to ICAO and
IATA, as well. There are short-term
measures, medium-term measures
and long-term measures, and
there's no single solution. There
will be multiple options, depending
on the different sizes of the market
you're covering, but I think if you
are an engineer, a product person, a
salesperson, a marketing personĀ -
these are all different business
models that you can work on. None
of these solutions - hybrid electric,
electric or hydrogen - none of them
are easy peasy. Everybody has a
bottleneck somewhere, whether it's
infrastructure, the density, etc. But
that is what is challenging, and that's
what's attractive to aerospace. I think
the good thing about green aviation,
first and foremost, is the reduction
of carbon emissions and aiming
toward a net zero carbon agenda,
which we see being embraced more
and more globally. We have Europe
starting it, and then we have China
and now with Biden coming, he will
enforce it in the U.S. So, you feel
you're doing something good and
positive for the society, but also you
have the technical challenge, which
isĀ fascinating.
[On the consumer side,] we've
done a ton of analysis. Since the last
two years, on consumer perspective,
you've really seen a shift. Last
year, there was a clear shift even
in countries like the U.S. where
people are now more aware of the
environment. Our surveys among 10
nations asked, " How many flights
did you already cut for environmental
reasons? " Or " How many flights

would you be considering cutting for
environmental reasons? " And what
you saw is, in these two categories,
those that are considering it were
growing in each survey, but basically,
we got up to nearly 30% of the
respondents in U.S., Europe, Japan,
even Australia, etc., that have either
have already cut their flights or were
considering cutting. Now, when you
look at this year, we do realize that
this number has not increased. The
number has leveled off at the moment
at 30%. What it says is that, within
the COVID context, the focus of the
individuals and the consumer has been
more toward their financial situation,
their uncertainty and their daily
struggles rather than the environment.
The European Commission runs a
survey with thousands of people
in it, and you could see that the
environmental topic has dropped
from a top three arguments to now
being a fifth or sixth topic in people's
agenda. But it's certainly there. The
awareness is not going away. Now,
every conference you attend, people
address it. Two years ago, it was still
very quietly addressed. And we see
governments really supporting that
more now.

Doug Harned
Managing Director and Head
of Aviation Research at
AllianceBernstein
*Aired on 17 December 2020

On the stages of traffic recovery:
We see it in steps. We're expecting
that you should have broadly available
vaccines within Europe and within
the U.S. by summer. That means that

people who want to get vaccinated
should be able to by the summer, so
those people should feel fairly good
about flying. There are people who
won't want to get vaccinated, but if
you can take a vaccine that's 95%
efficacy, you may not care. I think
the appetite for travel both within
the U.S and Europe will probably be
pretty good, and also probably within
some other bubbles around the world.
I think there are a couple stages, so
I should back up here. That doesn't
mean that, in the summer, we're
back to 2019 traffic levels by any
means, because airlines will have
gone through a horrible period of cash
burn. They are loaded with debt. They
have to bring airplanes back, they
have to bring pilots back, they have
to get airport infrastructure back.
That process will take some time,
even within individual regions. But
once you work through that, then you
get to the question of what does that
mean globally? And when we look at,
for instance, GDP forecasts around
the world, they're highly variable. You
can go to Vietnam, and Vietnam looks
great right now. There are hardly any
cases, and it looks great. But then
you can go to Latin America, and it
looks horrible. So, we think we'll see
unevenness. You could be very excited,
for instance, about the performance of
say, Southwest Airlines or Wiz within
these regions, and they could get costs
down and start becoming profitable
again, but the difficulty I have with the
recovery for aircraft demand is that the
airplanes are fungible, and that's one
of the attractive points of financing is
that you can move them around the
world. So, what you really care about
is the collective amount of travel.
We think it's another stage to get
narrowbody and short to medium haul
travel up, and then there's another
stage to really get long haul travel
back to where it once was.
Jetrader

* SPRING 2021 * 2 7



ISTAT Jetrader - Spring 2021

Table of Contents for the Digital Edition of ISTAT Jetrader - Spring 2021

ISTAT Jetrader - Spring 2021
From the President
News & Events
Perspectives: Q&A With Abdol Moabery
Voices of Aviation
On the Rise
ISTAT Foundation
Appraisal: Boeing 737-900ER and Airbus A321-200
At a Glance: Joel Wagner
From the Vault: Favorite Moments from the Past Five Years
Advertiser Index
ISTAT Jetrader - Spring 2021 - Intro
ISTAT Jetrader - Spring 2021 - ISTAT Jetrader - Spring 2021
ISTAT Jetrader - Spring 2021 - Cover2
ISTAT Jetrader - Spring 2021 - 1
ISTAT Jetrader - Spring 2021 - From the President
ISTAT Jetrader - Spring 2021 - 3
ISTAT Jetrader - Spring 2021 - 4
ISTAT Jetrader - Spring 2021 - 5
ISTAT Jetrader - Spring 2021 - 6
ISTAT Jetrader - Spring 2021 - 7
ISTAT Jetrader - Spring 2021 - News & Events
ISTAT Jetrader - Spring 2021 - 9
ISTAT Jetrader - Spring 2021 - Perspectives: Q&A With Abdol Moabery
ISTAT Jetrader - Spring 2021 - 11
ISTAT Jetrader - Spring 2021 - 12
ISTAT Jetrader - Spring 2021 - 13
ISTAT Jetrader - Spring 2021 - 14
ISTAT Jetrader - Spring 2021 - 15
ISTAT Jetrader - Spring 2021 - Voices of Aviation
ISTAT Jetrader - Spring 2021 - 17
ISTAT Jetrader - Spring 2021 - 18
ISTAT Jetrader - Spring 2021 - 19
ISTAT Jetrader - Spring 2021 - 20
ISTAT Jetrader - Spring 2021 - 21
ISTAT Jetrader - Spring 2021 - 22
ISTAT Jetrader - Spring 2021 - 23
ISTAT Jetrader - Spring 2021 - 24
ISTAT Jetrader - Spring 2021 - 25
ISTAT Jetrader - Spring 2021 - 26
ISTAT Jetrader - Spring 2021 - 27
ISTAT Jetrader - Spring 2021 - On the Rise
ISTAT Jetrader - Spring 2021 - 29
ISTAT Jetrader - Spring 2021 - 30
ISTAT Jetrader - Spring 2021 - 31
ISTAT Jetrader - Spring 2021 - 32
ISTAT Jetrader - Spring 2021 - 33
ISTAT Jetrader - Spring 2021 - ISTAT Foundation
ISTAT Jetrader - Spring 2021 - 35
ISTAT Jetrader - Spring 2021 - Appraisal: Boeing 737-900ER and Airbus A321-200
ISTAT Jetrader - Spring 2021 - 37
ISTAT Jetrader - Spring 2021 - 38
ISTAT Jetrader - Spring 2021 - 39
ISTAT Jetrader - Spring 2021 - At a Glance: Joel Wagner
ISTAT Jetrader - Spring 2021 - 41
ISTAT Jetrader - Spring 2021 - From the Vault: Favorite Moments from the Past Five Years
ISTAT Jetrader - Spring 2021 - 43
ISTAT Jetrader - Spring 2021 - Advertiser Index
ISTAT Jetrader - Spring 2021 - Cover3
ISTAT Jetrader - Spring 2021 - Cover4
https://www.nxtbookmedia.com