ISTAT Jetrader - Summer 2020 - 49

FLEET SHARE PER ANNUM
100%
90%
80%
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
2020

*

2021

A330-200F

*

2022

2023

A330-200P2F

2024

*

The A330-200F was ultimately
unsuccessful. It was designed for
payload, and once it finally entered
service after the financial crisis, the
cargo market had transitioned to a
volume market, which negated its
advantages at its price point. However,
it did serve as a good route developer
for Etihad and Qatar Airways.
Due to the large number of
passenger A330s produced, coupled
with their stage in the production
cycle, we are now seeing a price point
where it is economical for A330-200s
and A330-300s to be converted to
freight configuration. Interestingly, it
is not just the oldest vintages being
converted but aircraft younger than
14 years, far younger than the typical
age of conversion, which highlights
the level of supply in the market.
Both versions are eligible for P2F
conversion with the longer, greater
volume A330-300P2F more suitable
for integrators and express carriers,
while the A330-200P2F is optimized
for higher-density freight and longerrange sectors. The P2F conversion
program is a tri-party development
among Airbus, ST Aerospace and EFW,
which was launched in 2012. While the
-300P2F has a slightly higher payload
capability at 61 tonnes versus 60 tons
on the -200P2F, it has a substantial
containerized volume advantage of
18,580 cubic feet versus 16,000
cubic feet. According to the Cirium

2025

A330-300P2F

2026

2027

2028

*

767-300ERF

*

2029

2030

2031

767-200/-200ER P2F

Fleets Analyzer, there are currently
three A330-200P2Fs in service with
EgyptAir and a further three A330300P2Fs in service with DHL but
operated by Air Hong Kong.
Although offering less payload,
the competing Boeing 767 freighter
aircraft has achieved greater market
mass in terms of operator base and
in-service fleets. As one measure for
liquidity for an aircraft type, Ascend by
Cirium uses the Herfindahl-Hirschman
Index (HH Index), which expresses the
market fragmentation/concentration
for a given aircraft type. This analysis
indicates that while there are far
more 767 freighters in service or
on order (394) with more operators
(34), the 767 actually has a higher
concentration risk, with over 50% of
the aircraft being operated by only two
airlines: FedEx and UPS.
According to the Cirium Fleet
Forecast, we project that between
2020 and 2034, deliveries of the
-300P2F (195) will dwarf that of
the smaller -200P2F (70) due to its
attractiveness for volume integrator
and e-commerce operations. With
suitable conversion candidates for the
767-300ER diminishing, conversions
will most likely cease for this type
within the next five to six years.
However, the accelerated retirement
of American Airlines 767-300ERs has
ignited strong interest for the aircraft,
which are not already scheduled to

2032

*

2033

2034

767-300/-300ER P2F

be acquired for conversion by ATSG.
We will be paying close attention
to the fleet plans of Air Canada and
Delta whose aircraft would be prime
conversion candidates. Regardless,
over the medium-long term, the A330P2F will gain market share versus its
Boeing competitor.
2019 represented the steepest
decline in demand for air freight since
2009, with freight ton-kilometers
falling by 3.3%. The sector was hit
with falling global trade volumes along
with slowing growth in manufacturing
intensive economies, softer business
and consumer confidence, and weaker
export orders.
As of April 6, 2020, the global
passenger market is being decimated
by the COVID-19 pandemic, but there is
a silver lining for main deck freighters,
as demand has increased significantly
to replace lost belly capacity on
grounded passenger aircraft. IATA
has urged governments to take urgent
measures to ensure these air cargo
supply lines remain open by reducing
bureaucratic processes involving slots
and operating permits, which will
further increase the short-term demand
for freighter operations.
Looking forward, this short-term
boost will fizzle out once passenger
aircraft return to service along with a
global recession depressing demand for
cargo. Currently, values remain stable
but on negative outlook.
Jetrader

* SUMMER 2020 * 4 9



ISTAT Jetrader - Summer 2020

Table of Contents for the Digital Edition of ISTAT Jetrader - Summer 2020

ISTAT Jetrader - Summer 2020
From the President
News & Events
Perspectives: Q&A With Nils Hallerstrom
Live from Austin
Fixing the Leaky Pipeline
ISTAT Certified Appraisers: Valuing Aircraft During Market Disruptions
Aviation History: The Avro Canada Arrow
A Tribute to Jack B. Feir
Appraisal: A330 Freighters and Boeing 777F
ISTAT Foundation: Thinking Globally
Advertiser Index
ISTAT Jetrader - Summer 2020 - Intro
ISTAT Jetrader - Summer 2020 - ISTAT Jetrader - Summer 2020
ISTAT Jetrader - Summer 2020 - Cover2
ISTAT Jetrader - Summer 2020 - 1
ISTAT Jetrader - Summer 2020 - From the President
ISTAT Jetrader - Summer 2020 - 3
ISTAT Jetrader - Summer 2020 - 4
ISTAT Jetrader - Summer 2020 - 5
ISTAT Jetrader - Summer 2020 - 6
ISTAT Jetrader - Summer 2020 - 7
ISTAT Jetrader - Summer 2020 - News & Events
ISTAT Jetrader - Summer 2020 - 9
ISTAT Jetrader - Summer 2020 - 10
ISTAT Jetrader - Summer 2020 - 11
ISTAT Jetrader - Summer 2020 - Perspectives: Q&A With Nils Hallerstrom
ISTAT Jetrader - Summer 2020 - 13
ISTAT Jetrader - Summer 2020 - 14
ISTAT Jetrader - Summer 2020 - 15
ISTAT Jetrader - Summer 2020 - Live from Austin
ISTAT Jetrader - Summer 2020 - 17
ISTAT Jetrader - Summer 2020 - 18
ISTAT Jetrader - Summer 2020 - 19
ISTAT Jetrader - Summer 2020 - 20
ISTAT Jetrader - Summer 2020 - 21
ISTAT Jetrader - Summer 2020 - 22
ISTAT Jetrader - Summer 2020 - 23
ISTAT Jetrader - Summer 2020 - 24
ISTAT Jetrader - Summer 2020 - 25
ISTAT Jetrader - Summer 2020 - 26
ISTAT Jetrader - Summer 2020 - 27
ISTAT Jetrader - Summer 2020 - 28
ISTAT Jetrader - Summer 2020 - 29
ISTAT Jetrader - Summer 2020 - Fixing the Leaky Pipeline
ISTAT Jetrader - Summer 2020 - 31
ISTAT Jetrader - Summer 2020 - 32
ISTAT Jetrader - Summer 2020 - 33
ISTAT Jetrader - Summer 2020 - 34
ISTAT Jetrader - Summer 2020 - 35
ISTAT Jetrader - Summer 2020 - ISTAT Certified Appraisers: Valuing Aircraft During Market Disruptions
ISTAT Jetrader - Summer 2020 - 37
ISTAT Jetrader - Summer 2020 - 38
ISTAT Jetrader - Summer 2020 - 39
ISTAT Jetrader - Summer 2020 - Aviation History: The Avro Canada Arrow
ISTAT Jetrader - Summer 2020 - 41
ISTAT Jetrader - Summer 2020 - 42
ISTAT Jetrader - Summer 2020 - 43
ISTAT Jetrader - Summer 2020 - 44
ISTAT Jetrader - Summer 2020 - 45
ISTAT Jetrader - Summer 2020 - A Tribute to Jack B. Feir
ISTAT Jetrader - Summer 2020 - 47
ISTAT Jetrader - Summer 2020 - Appraisal: A330 Freighters and Boeing 777F
ISTAT Jetrader - Summer 2020 - 49
ISTAT Jetrader - Summer 2020 - 50
ISTAT Jetrader - Summer 2020 - 51
ISTAT Jetrader - Summer 2020 - 52
ISTAT Jetrader - Summer 2020 - 53
ISTAT Jetrader - Summer 2020 - ISTAT Foundation: Thinking Globally
ISTAT Jetrader - Summer 2020 - 55
ISTAT Jetrader - Summer 2020 - Advertiser Index
ISTAT Jetrader - Summer 2020 - Cover3
ISTAT Jetrader - Summer 2020 - Cover4
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