ISTAT Jetrader - Summer 2021 - 30

APPRAISAL
DHC-8-400
Daniel Hall
ISTAT Certified Appraiser
Senior Valuation Consultant
Ascend by Cirium
daniel.hall@cirium.com
www.cirium.com
Photo courtesy of Ascend by Cirium.
T
he DHC-8-400 (also
known as the Dash 8
Q400) is the largest
variant in a family of
35-90-seat regional
turboprop aircraft
built by De Havilland
and later by Bombardier Aerospace. The
Dash 8 program, which also includes
the out-of-production -100, -200 and
-300, was acquired from Bombardier
by Longview Aviation Capital (and
rebranded as De Havilland Aircraft
of Canada Limited) in 2019, and the
Q400 branding was replaced with Dash
8-400. Powered by two Pratt & Whitney
Canada PW150A engines, the type
primarily competes with the similarsized
ATR 72-500/600. Commencing
deliveries in 2000, the type later
offered an upgrade to the NextGen (NG)
model from 2010, featuring updated
cabin features, landing gear and
maintenance improvements. Typical
seating capacity of the DHC-8-400 is
around 70, but a 90-seat configuration
achieved certification from Transport
Canada early in Q3 2018. The first
of these was delivered to SpiceJet in
September 2018.
The turboprop market has
advantages at 70-90 seats versus
regional jets, as at shorter ranges
turboprops typically have only modestly
longer block times for given routes,
but typically better operating costs per
seat-mile. The DHC-8-400 offers better
30 * THE OF F I C I AL PUBL I CAT I ON OF ISTAT
De Havilland Aircraft announced that it would pause
production of the DHC-8-400 later this year, once
production of the remaining backlog has been completed.
speed and more seats than the ATR
72, but the latter has won many more
orders in recent years, especially in
developing markets. The slower ATR 72
has very competitive operating costs,
allowing it to offer the lowest trip cost
on essential air services, which is key.
De Havilland Aircraft announced
that it would pause production of
the DHC-8-400 later this year, once
production of the remaining backlog
(13 at end of Q1 2021) has been
completed. The Downsview production
facility in Toronto will be fully vacated.
De Havilland says it intends to resume
production once a new site is found
and when market demand rebounds.
However, it is very difficult to restart
after a production pause at an existing
facility, let alone a new one. As such,
the long-term future of the program
is uncertain. At production pause,
approximately 630 DHC-8-400 aircraft
will have been built and delivered.
The fleet trend chart illustrates
the difficulties the type has faced
particularly since March 2020 when the
single largest operator, Flybe, ceased
operations. The U.K. carrier operated
54 DHC-8-400s, over 60% of which
were leased.
The onset of the COVID-19
pandemic saw many more operators
moving the type into storage, which
stood at 333 aircraft at the end of Q1
2020, greater than the in-service fleet
total of 232, per Cirium Fleets Analyzer
data. Storage numbers gradually fell
but have settled around 200 from Q3
2020. This is four times greater than
pre-Flybe/pandemic levels. Some
but not all are expected to return to
service with current operators; for
instance, Canadian operator Porter's
entire fleet remains stored due to the
ongoing Canada-U.S. border closure.
But the longer an aircraft remains
stored, the probability of returning to
service typically declines, particularly
for older aircraft such as the pre-NG
model. Many of these are likely to
be parted out, joining the 40 aircraft
that have already been disassembled.
There are some positive signs for
the type, however. Ascend is seeing
deal activity, and indications suggest
we may be near the bottom of the
market for lease rates of the type.
http://www.cirium.com
ISTAT Jetrader - Summer 2021

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