ISTAT Jetrader - Summer 2021 - 31

There are also alternative usage
opportunities for the type, as instanced
by Conair's purchase to convert to fire
waterbombers. There may be additional
opportunities to convert into various
freighter configurations, a segment of
the market that has seen a renaissance
since the onset of the pandemic.
As a result of market conditions,
Ascend's Market Value and Market
Lease Rate opinions for DHC-8400s
have seen some of the greatest
reductions of any commercial aircraft
type since early 2020. Our Half-Life
Current Market Value opinions for
early models are based on the type's
part-out value (the sum of the engines
and airframe) given our views on the
probability of this being the most likely
outcome. We have seen continued
softness from early models to 10-yearold
aircraft. Thereafter, our value
opinion reductions have been less
severe, as there is far less availability
(from remarketing, bankruptcy, stored
fleet, etc.). In fact, we have recently
increased our opinions of value on
newer-build aircraft, as following
the production pause announcement
the backlog is fully committed and
scheduled to deliver this year, leaving
the NG variant more balanced in terms
of supply/demand. As at March 2021,
on a constant age basis, DHC-8-400
Market Values were down by up to 51%
compared to March 2020 (following
numerous reviews through 2020).
This is well evidenced within our
values chart, which shows particular
compression on older to mid-life
production aircraft.
Ascend's Market Lease Rate
opinions have fallen by as much as
57% on a constant age basis year-onyear
as the type continues to grapple
with high supply available for lease (at
least 50 aircraft publicly advertised
at the end of March but potentially
100-150 available overall). Operating
lessors manage approximately onethird
of the DHC-8-400 fleet, but
almost half of these aircraft are
currently in storage.
DHC-8-400 FLEET TREND
100
200
300
400
500
Q1-18
Q2-18
Q3-18
- Total In Service
Q4-18
Q1-19
Q2-19
- Total In Storage
Q3-19
Q4-19
- Total On Order
Source: Cirium Fleets Analyzer
CONSTANT AGE 'HALF-LIFE' MARKET VALUES:
DHC-8-400
10
15
20
25
5
2018 Q1
Aircraft Age (Years)
2018 Q3
2019 Q1
2019 Q3
2020 Q1
- 0 - 5 - 10 - 15 - 20
Source: Cirium Values Analyzer
CONSTANT AGE MARKET LEASE RATES: DHC-8-400
100
125
150
175
200
25
50
75
2018 Q1
Aircraft Age (Years)
2018 Q3
2019 Q1
2019 Q3
2020 Q1
- 0 - 5 - 10 - 15 - 20
Source: Cirium Values Analyzer
De Havilland's decision to pause
production may be wise. The order
backlog has fallen and, in turn, the
delivery rate. Market demand is not
present; will it return, or will this
market be ceded to ATR or another
manufacturer - perhaps Embraer? It
will be interesting to watch, yet many
more market dynamics are likely to
play out in the next few years. One
thing we are more certain on is that the
pause will help the market to absorb
the current surplus. In the long term,
and in the absence of a new generation
replacement turboprop, this should
support values for older DHC-8-400s.
Jetrader * SUMMER 2021 * 31
2020 Q3
2021 Q1
2020 Q3
2021 Q1
Q1-20 Q2-20 Q3-20 Q4-20 Q1-21
- Total Retired
Market Lease Rate ($USD, 000's)
Market Value ($USDm)

ISTAT Jetrader - Summer 2021

Table of Contents for the Digital Edition of ISTAT Jetrader - Summer 2021

ISTAT Jetrader - Summer 2021
From the President
ISTAT News & Events
Perspectives: Q&A With Dean Gerber
Reunited in the Magic City
Understanding Lease-Encumbered Values
ISTAT Foundation: Supporting UN Humanitarian Air Service Efforts
Appraisal: 737 MAX 8 and DHC-8-400
At a Glance: Dezhi Zhu
From the Vault: ISTAT Latin America Forum 2017-2019
Advertiser Index
ISTAT Jetrader - Summer 2021 - Intro
ISTAT Jetrader - Summer 2021 - ISTAT Jetrader - Summer 2021
ISTAT Jetrader - Summer 2021 - Cover2
ISTAT Jetrader - Summer 2021 - 1
ISTAT Jetrader - Summer 2021 - From the President
ISTAT Jetrader - Summer 2021 - 3
ISTAT Jetrader - Summer 2021 - 4
ISTAT Jetrader - Summer 2021 - 5
ISTAT Jetrader - Summer 2021 - 6
ISTAT Jetrader - Summer 2021 - 7
ISTAT Jetrader - Summer 2021 - ISTAT News & Events
ISTAT Jetrader - Summer 2021 - 9
ISTAT Jetrader - Summer 2021 - Perspectives: Q&A With Dean Gerber
ISTAT Jetrader - Summer 2021 - 11
ISTAT Jetrader - Summer 2021 - 12
ISTAT Jetrader - Summer 2021 - 13
ISTAT Jetrader - Summer 2021 - Reunited in the Magic City
ISTAT Jetrader - Summer 2021 - 15
ISTAT Jetrader - Summer 2021 - 16
ISTAT Jetrader - Summer 2021 - 17
ISTAT Jetrader - Summer 2021 - 18
ISTAT Jetrader - Summer 2021 - 19
ISTAT Jetrader - Summer 2021 - 20
ISTAT Jetrader - Summer 2021 - 21
ISTAT Jetrader - Summer 2021 - Understanding Lease-Encumbered Values
ISTAT Jetrader - Summer 2021 - 23
ISTAT Jetrader - Summer 2021 - 24
ISTAT Jetrader - Summer 2021 - 25
ISTAT Jetrader - Summer 2021 - ISTAT Foundation: Supporting UN Humanitarian Air Service Efforts
ISTAT Jetrader - Summer 2021 - 27
ISTAT Jetrader - Summer 2021 - Appraisal: 737 MAX 8 and DHC-8-400
ISTAT Jetrader - Summer 2021 - 29
ISTAT Jetrader - Summer 2021 - 30
ISTAT Jetrader - Summer 2021 - 31
ISTAT Jetrader - Summer 2021 - At a Glance: Dezhi Zhu
ISTAT Jetrader - Summer 2021 - 33
ISTAT Jetrader - Summer 2021 - From the Vault: ISTAT Latin America Forum 2017-2019
ISTAT Jetrader - Summer 2021 - 35
ISTAT Jetrader - Summer 2021 - Advertiser Index
ISTAT Jetrader - Summer 2021 - Cover3
ISTAT Jetrader - Summer 2021 - Cover4
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