ISTAT Jetrader - Summer 2022 - 39

on launching a new turboprop with
70- and 90-seat versions that could
enter service around 2027, according
to a February Reuters interview
with Embraer's Commercial Aviation
President. Turkish Aerospace was
also studying 70-90 seat turboprops
at the end of 2020 according to an
Air Transport News interview with its
president and CEO.
The ATR 72-600 is already
approved for 50% sustainable aviation
fuel (SAF). ATR recently demonstrated
its ongoing commitment to sustainable
aviation by completing tests utilising
100% SAF produced from 100%
renewable waste and residual raw
material such as used cooking oil. The
company targets to complete 100%
SAF testing utilizing both engines
simultaneously by 2025. ATR expects
that using SAF on both engines on
a typical route could reduce CO2
emission by 82%. According to ATR,
in 2019, the ATR72-600 was the
first-ever green-financed aircraft,
having been deemed by ESG rating
agency Vigeo Eiris as being aligned
with the Green Loan Principles (GLP)
established by the Loan Market
Association in 2018.
Region
Africa
Asia Pacific
Europe & CIS
Latin America
Middle East
North America
Total
ATR72-600 Status as of 1 March 2022
In Service
26
Stored
2
255
91
71
13
5
461
29
58
7
3
4
103
*Backlog for all ATR aircraft types * Source: Airfinance Journal, Airbus
Market Outlook
As of February, 18% of the fleet of 564
ATR 72-600s were parked. The parked
fleet increased from a very limited
number at year-end 2019, peaked in
April 2020 and had fallen to 103 by the
end of February. Similarly, the Q400
had a significant portion of its fleet of
565 parked at year-end April 2020,
with the parked fleet declining to 26%
in February.
Although ATR 72-600 Market Values
were holding firm prior to pandemic,
the significant availability of these two
competing aircraft types resulted in
Acumen's ATR 72-600 Market Values
bottoming at down up to 18%, lease
rates down up to 22% and Base Values
down up to 5%. With the pandemic
ATR 72-600 - Acumen 1 April 2022 Values
Year
of
Build
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
Current
Market
Value
8.8
9.3
10.2
11.1
12.1
13.1
14.3
15.8
17.3
18.6
19.2
19.9
Current
Base
Value
9.7
10.1
11.1
12.1
13.1
14.2
15.4
17.0
18.6
19.9
20.5
21.0
2023
8.9
9.3
10.2
11.2
12.1
13.2
14.3
15.9
17.4
18.5
19.1
19.5
2024
8.1
8.5
9.4
10.3
11.2
12.2
13.3
14.8
16.3
17.4
17.8
18.1
2025
7.3
7.8
8.6
9.5
10.3
11.3
12.3
13.7
15.2
16.2
16.7
16.9
2026
6.6
7.1
7.9
8.7
9.5
10.4
11.4
12.7
14.1
15.1
15.6
15.8
Future Base Values at 1.0% inflation
2027
5.9
2028
5.3
6.4
7.2
7.9
8.7
9.6
10.5
11.8
13.1
14.0
14.5
14.8
5.7
6.4
7.2
8.0
8.8
9.7
10.8
12.1
13.0
13.5
13.8
Aircraft specifications: PW127M, 48,501 lbs. MTOW
Maintenance assumptions: Half-Life condition * All values in US Dollar millions
Jetrader * SUMMER 2022 * 39
2029
4.7
5.1
5.8
6.5
7.2
8.0
8.9
10.0
11.1
12.0
12.5
12.8
2030
4.1
4.5
5.1
5.8
6.5
7.3
8.1
9.1
10.3
11.1
11.5
11.8
2031
3.6
4.0
4.5
5.2
5.8
6.5
7.3
8.4
9.4
10.2
10.6
11.0
2032
3.2
3.5
4.0
4.6
5.2
5.9
6.6
7.6
8.6
9.4
9.8
10.1
2033
2.8
3.1
3.5
4.0
4.6
5.2
5.9
6.8
7.8
8.5
9.0
9.3
2034
2.5
2.7
3.1
3.6
4.1
4.6
5.3
6.1
7.0
7.8
8.2
8.5
2035
2.1
2.4
2.7
3.1
3.6
4.1
4.7
5.4
6.3
7.0
7.4
7.8
easing, as of 1 April 2022, ATR 72-600
Market Values have recovered to being
down between 8% to 15% depending
on vintage, with lease rates having
recovered to down up to 15%. Acumen
expects the turboprop market to recover
to pre-pandemic levels by mid-2023, if
not earlier, barring further pandemicrelated
shocks, which should benefit
the Market Values of the ATR 72-600.
The ATR72-600 market should also
benefit replacement demand, with ATR
identifying a potential market of 1,200
turboprops in the 30-70 seat market,
especially given the lack of a competitor
presently, and cargo conversions,
with ATR forecasting demand for 460
freighters over 20 years in the up to
nine tonnes category.
167
Backlog*
ISTAT Jetrader - Summer 2022

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