ISTAT Jetrader - Winter 2020 - 43

deliveries did not peak until 2014 when
75 were delivered. This gives the fleet
a relatively young average age of 10.4
years old.
Although the aircraft has been a
commercial success for Airbus, there
have been concerns regarding Residual
Value performance of the A330-300
due to the ongoing effects of the
COVID-19 pandemic. In past downturns,
mba has observed the Market Values
of widebody aircraft taking a larger hit
than those of narrowbody aircraft. So
far, this trend has continued through
the current downturn, with A330-300
Market Values dropping by 15% on
average year over year, compared to
A320-200 values dropping by 10% over
the same time frame.
Ultimately, in the downturns
caused by 9/11 and the 2008 financial
crisis, in-production widebody aircraft
experienced a total Market Value
degradation of 15%, while out-ofproduction widebody aircraft saw their
Market Values drop by 20-25%. This
suggests that Market Values for the
soon to be out-of-production A330300 still have further to fall based on
historical performance.
Since the A330-900neo entered
the market in the second half of 2018
and the A330-300 backlog continues
to shrink, mba expects an increase
in airlines retiring their A330-300
fleets, as Etihad and TAP Portugal have
already done. In addition, with the
COVID-19 pandemic grounding most
airline fleets in March and April 2020,
as well as reducing summer schedules,
many airlines around the world are
faced with a liquidity problem and will
likely be forced to reduce fleet sizes.
An analysis of the A330-300
fleet as of 31 August 2020 shows
107 aircraft in both long-term and
temporary storage. mba estimates that
only 48 of these aircraft are likely to
return to service in the short to medium
term. There are an additional seven
aircraft listed as active that have been
publicly made available for sale or lease
and an additional 37 active aircraft that

A330-300 MARKET VALUE CHANGE OVER TIME
15.00%
10.00%

Recovery from 2008
financial crisis
Demand increase due to
787 engine issues

5.00%
0.00%
-5.00%

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

Q3 2020

-10.00%
-15.00%
-20.00%
New build A330-300

5-Year Old A330-300

10-Year Old A330-300

Given the already soft market environment the
A330-300 was facing before the pandemic, mba anticipates
Market Values will continue to face downward pressure.
are in the process of being phased out
or will be phased out by their operators
in the short term. These include aircraft
operated by Aeroflot, American Airlines,
Qatar Airways and Singapore Airlines.
mba also identified an additional
104 aircraft that may be at risk of
entering the secondary market due to
the financial distress of their operators,
with a majority of these aircraft located
in Asia. All these factors combined
present a risk that up to 28% of the
A330-300 fleet will enter the secondary
market within 12 months. Aircraft
owners will not only be competing with
other A330-300 aircraft for placement
in the secondary market; they will also
be competing with newer technology
aircraft such as the 787-9, A350-900
and A330-900neo, which have or are
expected to enter the secondary market
due to bankruptcies. Given the already
soft market environment the A330300 was facing before the pandemic,
mba anticipates Market Values will
continue to face downward pressure
with the potential for long-term Base
Value impacts.

Part-out of newer A330-300
aircraft may be a viable option should
Market Values continue to decline.
However, parts from older aircraft
are not likely to be in high demand
providing lower yields, and the market
for widebody spare parts is likely to
be hit harder than narrowbody spare
parts. An influx of retired A330300s could oversupply the market
and further drive down part-out
values. mba currently estimates a
part-out value of a 10-year-old Trent
700 powered A330-300 to be about
US$25 million (assuming half-time
status engines, APU, and Landing
Gear and all airframe parts sold in
serviceable condition). The freighter
conversion option, the A330-300P2F,
is unlikely to provide much relief,
as there are currently only five
outstanding firm orders for the type.
However, if Market Values continue to
decrease as a result of the pandemic,
it may make freighter conversion
a more attractive option for A330300 owners.
Jetrader

* WINTER 2020 * 4 3



ISTAT Jetrader - Winter 2020

Table of Contents for the Digital Edition of ISTAT Jetrader - Winter 2020

ISTAT Jetrader - Winter 2020
From the President
News & Events
Perspectives: Q&A With Rich Wiley of SKY Leasing
Winds of Change
10 Years of Air Shows
ISTAT Foundation
Appraisal: Airbus A330-300 and Boeing 767-300ER
At a Glance: Peter Hopkins
Advertiser Index
ISTAT Jetrader - Winter 2020 - Intro
ISTAT Jetrader - Winter 2020 - ISTAT Jetrader - Winter 2020
ISTAT Jetrader - Winter 2020 - Cover2
ISTAT Jetrader - Winter 2020 - 1
ISTAT Jetrader - Winter 2020 - From the President
ISTAT Jetrader - Winter 2020 - 3
ISTAT Jetrader - Winter 2020 - 4
ISTAT Jetrader - Winter 2020 - 5
ISTAT Jetrader - Winter 2020 - 6
ISTAT Jetrader - Winter 2020 - 7
ISTAT Jetrader - Winter 2020 - News & Events
ISTAT Jetrader - Winter 2020 - 9
ISTAT Jetrader - Winter 2020 - Perspectives: Q&A With Rich Wiley of SKY Leasing
ISTAT Jetrader - Winter 2020 - 11
ISTAT Jetrader - Winter 2020 - 12
ISTAT Jetrader - Winter 2020 - 13
ISTAT Jetrader - Winter 2020 - 14
ISTAT Jetrader - Winter 2020 - 15
ISTAT Jetrader - Winter 2020 - Winds of Change
ISTAT Jetrader - Winter 2020 - 17
ISTAT Jetrader - Winter 2020 - 18
ISTAT Jetrader - Winter 2020 - 19
ISTAT Jetrader - Winter 2020 - 20
ISTAT Jetrader - Winter 2020 - 21
ISTAT Jetrader - Winter 2020 - 22
ISTAT Jetrader - Winter 2020 - 23
ISTAT Jetrader - Winter 2020 - 24
ISTAT Jetrader - Winter 2020 - 25
ISTAT Jetrader - Winter 2020 - 10 Years of Air Shows
ISTAT Jetrader - Winter 2020 - 27
ISTAT Jetrader - Winter 2020 - 28
ISTAT Jetrader - Winter 2020 - 29
ISTAT Jetrader - Winter 2020 - 30
ISTAT Jetrader - Winter 2020 - 31
ISTAT Jetrader - Winter 2020 - 32
ISTAT Jetrader - Winter 2020 - 33
ISTAT Jetrader - Winter 2020 - 34
ISTAT Jetrader - Winter 2020 - 35
ISTAT Jetrader - Winter 2020 - 36
ISTAT Jetrader - Winter 2020 - 37
ISTAT Jetrader - Winter 2020 - ISTAT Foundation
ISTAT Jetrader - Winter 2020 - 39
ISTAT Jetrader - Winter 2020 - 40
ISTAT Jetrader - Winter 2020 - 41
ISTAT Jetrader - Winter 2020 - Appraisal: Airbus A330-300 and Boeing 767-300ER
ISTAT Jetrader - Winter 2020 - 43
ISTAT Jetrader - Winter 2020 - 44
ISTAT Jetrader - Winter 2020 - 45
ISTAT Jetrader - Winter 2020 - At a Glance: Peter Hopkins
ISTAT Jetrader - Winter 2020 - 47
ISTAT Jetrader - Winter 2020 - Advertiser Index
ISTAT Jetrader - Winter 2020 - Cover3
ISTAT Jetrader - Winter 2020 - Cover4
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