Signs of the Times - Black Book 2020 - 29
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Industry TRENDS
Price of Materials
STEEL
LUMBER
Chart Source: ISA Sign Industry Quarterly Economic Report
Chart Source: ISA Sign Industry Quarterly Economic Report
Steel prices are at or past bottom, so lock as soon as possible.
Prices have turned upwards in the United States and China. Europe
and India are at bottom and hikes will be underway by January, or
February at the very latest.
Prices for softwood lumber will increase in the first and second
quarters of 2020, in line with the seasonal profile.
Steel supply will move toward balance in 2020 after being in surplus.
Mills are finally starting to act in ways that should help balance
the market over the first half of 2020. Production is being idled
although the cuts have not been deep so far. Most of the idled
furnaces are in Europe and North America as prices do not always
cover input cost. China has not seen deep pollution cuts, so the
supply situation remains unsettled. As air quality deteriorates, we
will watch to see if cuts will be deepened. Production outside China is
down sharply since last March, but China is 9% higher year-over-year.
Housing construction is the main demand driver for softwood
lumber. In 2020, housing starts will reach 1.289 million (annual
rate), rising 2% above 2019 levels. This will be a slight increase
over the 2019 growth rate of 1.2%.
Producers in western Canada have responded to lower lumber
prices and higher costs by curtailing production in 2019. Production
looks to increase in the southern United States, but drop in
Canada and the western United States in 2020.
Steel sheets could soon enter modest tightness in the United States.
Buyers and service centers closely controlled inventory as prices
fell. Moreover, imports are very low since the price premium is
only about 10% over Europe and has been less than 15% for
many months. We do not expect shortages, but the market is
susceptible if there is any disruption.
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Signs of the Times - Black Book 2020
Table of Contents for the Digital Edition of Signs of the Times - Black Book 2020
Contents
Signs of the Times - Black Book 2020 - Cover1
Signs of the Times - Black Book 2020 - Cover1a
Signs of the Times - Black Book 2020 - Cover1b
Signs of the Times - Black Book 2020 - Cover2
Signs of the Times - Black Book 2020 - 1
Signs of the Times - Black Book 2020 - Contents
Signs of the Times - Black Book 2020 - 3
Signs of the Times - Black Book 2020 - 4
Signs of the Times - Black Book 2020 - 5
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Signs of the Times - Black Book 2020 - 62
Signs of the Times - Black Book 2020 - 63
Signs of the Times - Black Book 2020 - CT3
Signs of the Times - Black Book 2020 - CT4
Signs of the Times - Black Book 2020 - 64
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Signs of the Times - Black Book 2020 - 67
Signs of the Times - Black Book 2020 - 68
Signs of the Times - Black Book 2020 - Cover3
Signs of the Times - Black Book 2020 - Cover4
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