Engineering Inc - January/February 2018 - 6
MARKETWATCH
Continued Slow but
Steady Growth Projected
By Gerry Donohue
T
he U.S. economy is in the midst of the third
unemployment rate stood at 4.2 percent, which deRitis says is
longest recovery since World War II. After emerg- essentially full employment.
ing from the Great Recession in mid-2009, the
He points to two unique characteristics of the current employeconomy has been expanding for 103 months,
ment market. "We have 6.8 million unemployed and 6.1 million
topped only by a 106-month growth cycle in the
job openings," he says. "We've never had that many job openings.
1960s and a 120-month period in the 1990s.
The problem is we have a substantial skills mismatch."
Nevertheless, many business leaders have
The second characteristic is the movement of the "quit rate,"
bemoaned the sluggishness of the growth during
which tracks how many people are voluntarily leaving their job.
the expansion-around 2.1 percent annually. Analysts say, how"It's at record levels right now, which is a strong indication of
ever, the slow growth is the primary reason behind the recovery's
consumer confidence," says deRitis.
longevity.
Employment in the design industry has also reached record
"Chances for a recession have been lessened because growth
highs. In February 2008, A/E employment reached 1.45 million.
has been so slow," says Christopher Staloch,
managing director of Chartwell Financial AdviConstruction Put in Place
sory's A/E practice. "Maybe there's nothing
Estimated for the United States
wrong with 2 percent growth if we don't see the
Change from prior year-current dollar basis 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
boom/bust cycle."
RESIDENTIAL BUILDINGS
Eventually, though, the slowdown will come.
Single Family
9%
7%
5%
3%
4%
Not surprisingly, economists are divided about
Multifamily
7%
5%
4%
3%
3%
when a slowdown may occur.
Improvements
14%
6%
3%
1%
2%
The Congressional Budget Office forecasts
Total Residential Buildings
1%
7%
4%
2%
3%
a flat market as soon as 2018, followed by an
average annual growth rate of just 1.5 percent
NONRESIDENTIAL BUILDINGS
in 2019 and 2020.
Lodging
5%
5%
3%
2%
5%
At Moody's Analytics, Senior Director CrisOffice
9%
9%
6%
4%
2%
tian deRitis is more optimistic. "2018 will be
Commercial
1%
7%
4%
2%
3%
fine. 2019 will be good," he says. But deRitis
Health Care
1%
3%
4%
3%
4%
warns that a recession in 2020 is a pretty good
Education
-2%
3%
3%
4%
5%
bet given unemployment and interest rate
Religious
-6%
1%
1%
2%
2%
trends.
Public Safety
-1%
1%
3%
3%
4%
Focusing just on the A/E/C industry, Greg
Amusement and Recreation
4%
4%
2%
1%
3%
Powell, managing director of investment bankTransportation
1%
2%
4%
5%
6%
ing at FMI Capital Advisors, Inc., is more
Communication
2%
3%
4%
3%
3%
optimistic. He is forecasting 4.0 percent average
Manufacturing
-7%
6%
8%
5%
4%
annual nominal growth in the construction
Total Nonresidential Buildings
2%
5%
4%
3%
4%
market through 2021.
NONBUILDING STRUCTURES
"We see pullback in some construction marPower
-3%
4%
5%
6%
5%
ket sectors, but overall growth will continue
Highway
and
Street
-1%
2%
2%
2%
2%
for a few more years before leveling off," says
Sewage and Waste Disposal
-11%
-4%
1%
3%
3%
Powell.
Water Supply
-8%
-3%
1%
2%
3%
ECONOMIC STAYING POWER
Conservation and Development
-6%
3%
4%
5%
5%
The long recovery has been marked by the slow,
but steady, decline in the nation's unemployment rate. In the closing months of 2017, the
Total Nonbuilding Structures
-4%
2%
3%
4%
4%
TOTAL PUT IN PLACE
4%
5%
4%
3%
4%
6
ENGINEERING INC.
JANUARY / FEBRUARY 2018
SOURCE: FMI
Table of Contents for the Digital Edition of Engineering Inc - January/February 2018
Engineering Inc - January/February 2018
Contents
From Acec to You
Market Watch
2018 Legislative Outlook: Infrastructure Up Next
Legislative Action
Flood Protection Analysis
Innovative Restorations
What Happens After the Merge?
A Buyer’s Market With a Hint of Change
Help Desk to Board Room
A Green Machine
Mergers and Acquisitions
Members in the News
Business Insights
Engineering Inc - January/February 2018 - Intro
Engineering Inc - January/February 2018 - Engineering Inc - January/February 2018
Engineering Inc - January/February 2018 - Cover2
Engineering Inc - January/February 2018 - Contents
Engineering Inc - January/February 2018 - 2
Engineering Inc - January/February 2018 - 3
Engineering Inc - January/February 2018 - From Acec to You
Engineering Inc - January/February 2018 - 5
Engineering Inc - January/February 2018 - Market Watch
Engineering Inc - January/February 2018 - 7
Engineering Inc - January/February 2018 - 2018 Legislative Outlook: Infrastructure Up Next
Engineering Inc - January/February 2018 - 9
Engineering Inc - January/February 2018 - 10
Engineering Inc - January/February 2018 - 11
Engineering Inc - January/February 2018 - 12
Engineering Inc - January/February 2018 - 13
Engineering Inc - January/February 2018 - Legislative Action
Engineering Inc - January/February 2018 - 15
Engineering Inc - January/February 2018 - Flood Protection Analysis
Engineering Inc - January/February 2018 - 17
Engineering Inc - January/February 2018 - 18
Engineering Inc - January/February 2018 - 19
Engineering Inc - January/February 2018 - 20
Engineering Inc - January/February 2018 - Innovative Restorations
Engineering Inc - January/February 2018 - 22
Engineering Inc - January/February 2018 - 23
Engineering Inc - January/February 2018 - 24
Engineering Inc - January/February 2018 - 25
Engineering Inc - January/February 2018 - What Happens After the Merge?
Engineering Inc - January/February 2018 - 27
Engineering Inc - January/February 2018 - 28
Engineering Inc - January/February 2018 - 29
Engineering Inc - January/February 2018 - 30
Engineering Inc - January/February 2018 - A Buyer’s Market With a Hint of Change
Engineering Inc - January/February 2018 - 32
Engineering Inc - January/February 2018 - 33
Engineering Inc - January/February 2018 - 34
Engineering Inc - January/February 2018 - 35
Engineering Inc - January/February 2018 - 36
Engineering Inc - January/February 2018 - 37
Engineering Inc - January/February 2018 - Help Desk to Board Room
Engineering Inc - January/February 2018 - 39
Engineering Inc - January/February 2018 - 40
Engineering Inc - January/February 2018 - 41
Engineering Inc - January/February 2018 - A Green Machine
Engineering Inc - January/February 2018 - 43
Engineering Inc - January/February 2018 - 44
Engineering Inc - January/February 2018 - 45
Engineering Inc - January/February 2018 - 46
Engineering Inc - January/February 2018 - 47
Engineering Inc - January/February 2018 - Mergers and Acquisitions
Engineering Inc - January/February 2018 - 49
Engineering Inc - January/February 2018 - Members in the News
Engineering Inc - January/February 2018 - 51
Engineering Inc - January/February 2018 - Business Insights
Engineering Inc - January/February 2018 - Cover3
Engineering Inc - January/February 2018 - Cover4
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