Engineering Inc. - September/October 2019 - 6

Opportunities in Nuclear Still Remain
Despite Dwindling Power Output
BY GERRY DONOHUE

uclear power plant output in the United States hit
an all-time high in 2018, generating 807.1 million
megawatthours (MWh) to top the previous high set
in 2010. But that statistic is deceiving; it masks the
reality that the U.S. nuclear sector is in decline.
In fact, that peak was reached through a combination of efficiency upgrades and improved refueling and maintenance systems.
Only one new domestic nuclear power plant has come online in
the U.S. since 2010. The Tennessee Valley Authority (TVA) turned
on Watts Bar Unit 2 nuclear power reactor in 2016, generating 1.2
gigawatts (GW) of power. Two reactors at Georgia's Vogtle plant
are scheduled to enter service in 2021 and 2022 and will add 2.2
GW to the grid.
Contrast that growth with the eight plants that have been retired
since 2013, removing more than 6.0 GW from the system. In
addition, the reactor at Three Mile Island will go offline on Sept.
30, 2019, and 10 more reactors could be mothballed by 2025,
taking another 10.5 GW out of the grid.
In order to maintain its long-standing share of U.S. electricity
production, nearly 20 percent, the nuclear industry has relied on
uprates, in which upgrades to the plant increase its generating
capacity, and shorter refueling and maintenance cycles. In the early
1990s, the average reactor was out of service for more than 100
days each year; in 2018, the industry had cut that downtime to 25
days.
Still, given the planned plant closings and the limited
opportunities to squeeze more efficiencies out of the remaining
plants, the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) projects
a 17 percent drop in electricity generated from U.S. nuclear power
reactors by 2025.

MARKET FACTORS

The biggest factor behind the decline of the U.S. nuclear market
has been the natural gas revolution.
6

ENGINEERING INC.

SEPTEMBER / OCTOBER 2019

SMILEUS / SHUTTERSTOCK

MARKETWATCH

"In the early 2000s there was a renaissance of sorts for nuclear
power," says Delfo Bianchini, executive vice president and director of nuclear power at Sargent & Lundy, one of the most active
engineering firms in the nuclear market. "We were seeing a lot of
activity in the sector and then natural gas prices started dropping,
and it fizzled out."
In June 2008, the domestic natural gas price was $12.69 per million British thermal units (Btu), according to EIA; in June 2019,
the price was $2.40 per million Btu.
Most nuclear plants operate in deregulated energy markets where
power generators bid to provide electricity to the grid. Because of
their high fixed operating costs, these nuclear plants are struggling
to compete. To keep plants in their states viable, New York, Illinois
and New Jersey are providing subsidies in the form of zero emission credit programs, which compensate nuclear generators for
providing carbon-free electricity.
Newer nuclear plants using the latest technology produce
cheaper power, and in countries around the world, plants are being
built at a rapid pace. In the U.S., not so much. One reason is in
other countries, most of the large producers of nuclear power are
owned or largely funded by the national government. U.S. nuclear
power plants are investor-owned-except for TVA-and the huge
cost of building a new plant (upward of $10 billion) is beyond
their reach.
Layer on top of that the recent poor track record in building
domestic nuclear plants.
"A critical problem for nuclear power in the U.S. has been the
cost and schedule overruns," says Ashley Finan, executive director
of the Nuclear Innovation Alliance.
Overruns led directly to South Carolina's decision to stop construction on its V.C. Summer Nuclear Station project after more
than 10 years and $9 billion in costs. In 2018, Georgia Power
decided to keep building the two new reactors at its Vogtle plant,
despite the project being five years behind schedule and $13 billion
over budget.

Engineering Inc. - September/October 2019

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