American Gas - April 2013 - (Page 32)
For energy guru and LNG 17 keynoter
daniel yergin, the history of energy is the history
of the world. Here’s how that history is unfolding
profile
aN uNcoNveNtioNaL revoLutioN
In 1992, Cambridge Energy Research Associates Co-Founder Daniel Yergin won the
Pulitzer Prize for his book, The Prize: The
Epic Quest for Oil, Money, and Power, a
history of the oil industry dating back to the
early 19th century.
Nearly two decades later, the rapidly
changing global energy landscape led him
to write yet another book, The Quest: Energy, Security, and the Remaking of the
Modern World, which has been described
as “masterly” and the “one book you must
read to understand our economy and our
way of life.”
Yergin, who is vice chairman of IHS, has
also served on President Obama’s seven-member advisory panel on hydraulic fracturing.
In advance of his April 17 keynote address to LNG 17 attendees, Yergin talked to
American Gas about the amazing story of
shale gas so far and how he thinks the next
few chapters will unfold.
American Gas: In 2007, when it was
announced that LNG17 would be held
in Houston, the U.S. was firmly in
the category of LNG importer. Now it
seems to be on the cusp of becoming a
major exporter. What happened?
Daniel Yergin: As we’ve seen again and
again throughout history, expectations in
the energy industry have been upended
by technology, and that’s exactly what has
happened here. It took 20 years to reach
the point of a breakthrough on shale
gas—which really occurred in 2003—
and it wasn’t until 2008 that it started to
become clear that this was not something
on the fringes, but something that would
have major consequences not only for the
North American gas market but for the
global gas market.
AG: The EIA is forecasting that the U.S.
will become a net exporter of LNG by
2022. Do you agree?
DY: We think it will happen much earlier.
The big question is: How big of an exporter will the U.S. be?
AG: What will determine the answer?
DY: Well, it will obviously be determined by global competition, but also by
economics and public policy. LNG 17 is
taking place right in the middle of a major
debate on the scale of U.S. LNG exports.
AG: On the subject of public policy,
President Obama recently announced
his nominees for secretaries of Energy
and Environment. What do you think
his selections signal to those in the
natural gas business?
DY: I’ll put it this way: the development of shale gas started off as a national
discussion on energy supplies. But it has
turned into a national discussion about
jobs and the economy, and I think the
Obama administration has generally been
supportive of the development of shale
gas. We’ve done studies, and our numbers
indicate that shale gas and tight oil support 1.7 million jobs in the U.S. and last
year generated $62 billion in federal and
state revenues. These are big, important
numbers at a time when unemployment
and the federal budget are such big concerns. I think there is broad recognition
that this unconventional revolution in oil
and gas has made the United States much
more competitive. I hear that when I’m in
China. I hear that when I’m in Europe.
AG: In your books, one of your underlying themes is that the history
of energy is the history of the world.
What’s next on the horizon: renewables?
Methane hydrates? Something most of
us have never heard of?
DY: Shale gas is the biggest energy innovation so far of the 21st century. I say “so far”
because I don’t think we’ve ever seen so
much emphasis on innovation all across
the energy spectrum, on a global scale. I’m
sure that there will be other innovations
that will surprise us—whether it comes
from conventional energy such as methane
hydrates or something that almost nobody
is thinking about today.
What I conclude is that if we look
out to 2030, we’ll see the world using a
lot more energy but the shares between
conventional and alternative will be
pretty much the same. The real changes
will come in that 2030 to 2050 period in
response to all the innovation that’s going
on now.
AG: And then you’ll have to write
another book.
DY: Right, another book. u
photography by bebeto matthews/ap photo
32
AmericAn GAs april 2013
Table of Contents for the Digital Edition of American Gas - April 2013
American Gas - April 2013
Contents
President's Message
Subject Index
LNG Sports Car: Racing Toward Acceptance
Digest
Issues
Updates
Need to Know
By the Numbers
People and Places
Water, Water Anywhere
Asia
State House
State House
Elm Street
LNG: Riding the Wave
Beyond the Headlines
Profile
Crisis Management
Jobs
Buyer's Guide: Mapping and GIS
Marketplace
Headway
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