American Oil and Gas Reporter - July 2016 - 99
ConventionCoverage: Oklahoma Independent Petroleum Association
$3.00 an MMBtu in 2017.
"Expected production cuts over the
next several months are going to slowly
rebalance this supply/demand imbalance,"
he added. "Exports and power demand
are the key demand growth areas, though
more to Mexico than liquefied natural
gas."
Waiting For Miracles
Regarding the big picture for demand,
Manhattan Institute's Mills held that it
was exceedingly easy to project oil demand
according to foundational indicators that
left no ambiguity, including the fact that
99 percent of the transport of goods and
people needed petroleum-based fuels. He
projected that the worldwide road and air
travel miles would double in less than two
decades, which alone would boost oil demand between 8 million barrels a day and
10 MMbbl/d. "It is not a question of
whether that is going to happen, but purely
a matter of when," he posited. "Does it
take nine years, eight years, 12 years?"
Some dispute such projections because
they assume oil will be displaced as the
primary transportation fuel, Mills acknowledged, but he said there was little
evidence to support that. "People essentially say Silicon Valley wizards are going
to invent magic bugs-which are better
biofuels-and magic batteries," he described. "Let me explain why they won't:
Physics and the world in which we live
actually dictate what is possible."
About 40 percent of U.S. corn output
goes into ethanol, which fuels 4 percent
of U.S. transportation, he observed. That
means even using the country's entire
corn crop still will not fuel 10 percent of
U.S. transportation. "No genetic engineering is going to change that," Mills
maintained. "For 10,000 years, we have
known crops grow slowly and dispersedly.
We have gotten better at growing them,
but not enough to move the meter."
Meanwhile, he noted, major battery
breakthroughs are necessary for any
"green" electric car enthusiast who does
not want those cars to be powered by
fossil fuels, nuclear generators or hydroelectric dams. According to Mills, that
strategy involves storing wind energy in
batteries to help make up for wind turbines'
intermittency. He then compared the energy created by a 2 megawatt wind turbine
with that created by a drilling rig of the
same cost.
"The 2 MW wind turbine will produce
1 barrel of oil equivalent every hour,
while a drilling rig will produce 1 barrel
a minute," he related. "The wind turbine's
1 boe an hour is getting better by a few
percent a year, while your industry is
making the rig's 1 bbl a minute 15-40
percent better every year, depending on
location. The electricity produced by the
wind turbine costs 300 percent more than
a barrel of oil."
But to power an electric automobile,
he continued, that boe must be transferred
and stored in batteries. "It takes 20,000
pounds of Tesla batteries to hold one boe
of electricity, while a barrel of actual oil
weighs about 320 pounds," Mills detailed.
"Batteries may get better, but that is well
beyond even a 10-fold gap. There is no
Chatting before the keynote luncheon at OIPA's 2016 annual convention are, from left,
Bary Holleyman with Patterson-UTI; former NFL and Oklahoma Sooners defensive tackle
Tommie Harris, Zane Woods from ZZW Global, and OIPA President Mike Terry.
Fossil fuel demand will continue to grow
for the foreseeable future, predicts Manhattan Institute Senior Fellow Mark P.
Mills. He indicated that a growing number
of business leaders and researchers
were realizing known alternative fuels
could not meet the world's energy appetite and cited the examples of Microsoft
co-founder Bill Gates and the engineers
leading Google's RE
American Oil and Gas Reporter - July 2016
Table of Contents for the Digital Edition of American Oil and Gas Reporter - July 2016
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American Oil and Gas Reporter - July 2016 - Contents
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