American Oil and Gas Reporter - December 2019 - 94

ConventionCoverage: The Petroleum Alliance of Oklahoma

David Flaherty, chief executive officer at
Magellan Strategies, tells the Petroleum
Alliance of Oklahoma that the presidential
election in 2020 is going to be totally
different in several respects from the
2016 event.

pretty successful."
The Alliance organized rig tours for
several mayors and city officials in the
SCOOP and STACK areas affected by
oil and gas activity, Lee recounted.
"This is something where legislation is
great, but developing those relationships
and getting mayors to understand our
industry helps stop them from pushing
harmful ordinances. They finally understand that those ordinances could
kill off this industry, and they will not
get that revenue or those jobs in their
communities."

Presidential Race
In his forecast of the 2020 national
election, David Flaherty, chief executive
officer at Magellan Strategies, said the
impeachment process confronting President Donald Trump was the biggest unknown. While the president's focus on
immigration reforms will energize the
Republican base, he said, that emphasis
may pose an unprecedented threat to
Trump by activating voters who differ.
"The presidential election in 2020 is
going to be totally different in some respects," Flaherty told the Alliance. "First,
look at what Donald Trump wants you to
know about why he deserves a second
term. He now has a record, and people
are seeing what kind of president he is."
He cited the president's re-election
website, which leads off with a page extolling the country's economic prosperity
and overhauled immigration policies, as
evidence of Trump's priorities. As a pollster, Flaherty said, he often asks an openended question on what people consider
the top political issue.
"Immigration is not in the top five,
and in many states it is not even in the
top 10," he reported. "Immigration primarily is a Republican issue, and it is
unlikely to become a top issue for 90%
of the electorate. What Donald Trump is
doing is taking care of job number one-
making sure there is not a serious Republican primary challenger to him-because as long as he owns immigration he
will win (the GOP nomination)."
The president is enjoying approval ratings of 75% among Republicans, and Fla-

herty predicted no serious primary challenger would emerge. However, he pointed
out, in the general election, many voters
have strong reservations about supporting
him, including the high turnover rate of
senior government officials, the president's
dismissal of recommendations and advice
from experienced officials and his constant
personal attacks against a wide range of
Americans on social media.
Another element upending the conventional wisdom is the increasing impact of
younger voters aged 18-34, Flaherty said.
Next November, he predicted, those younger
voters will make up about 27% of all votes
cast. "If these kids turn out at that level, it
is going to be extremely difficult for Donald
Trump and Republican candidates to be
competitive and win," he cautioned. "It is
the enthusiasm of the younger voter that,
in my opinion, is the biggest threat to
Donald Trump being re-elected."
If those younger votes engage, Flaherty
projected Republican losses in states that
have been solidly "red" for years.
"At the same time, if the Democrats
do nominate Elizabeth Warren and she
decides not to run back to the middle,
like a traditional candidate, and she makes
the case in contrast to Donald Trump
about what her America would look like,
one would assume that Donald Trump
would win. Primarily because older Midwestern voters would be unlikely to accept
a hard-left liberal candidate," he offered.
"However, if those kids (18-34 years old)
do turn out to vote, it is going to be a different equation. That is what we are keeping an eye on."
❒

Operators Overcome Water Challenges
BRANSON, MO.-Water management
remains a significant issue for Oklahoma's
oil and gas production community, observed participants in a panel discussion
on operational challenges at the Petroleum
Alliance of Oklahoma's fall conference.
Participants examined issues ranging from
saltwater disposal wells (SDWs) to pipeline
rights of way.
Tanner Stewart, business unit vice
president of Select Energy Services, said
operators increasingly were forced to
deal with disposal well regulations and
restrictions, and their options historically
were limited if they were blocked from
injecting produced water. While many
majors have their own legacy water-handling systems, he assumed even those
94 THE AMERICAN OIL & GAS REPORTER

weren't designed to move the volumes
now common in Oklahoma.
The state is still in the infancy stages
of water-related infrastructure, assessed
Tommie Herell, vice president of business
development for Spitfire Energy Group
and member of the Alliance Board of
Directors. "On rights of way, Oklahoma
has lots of small parcels and activity in
urban areas," he said. "It really is hard to
get the rights of way secured. Regulatory
issues also are a challenge. The Oklahoma
Corporation Commission just doesn't
have the technology or staff to handle
large volumes of water."
The Alliance responded quickly after
saltwater began flowing to the surface
near several disposal wells in Blaine

County in mid-2019, Herell said. According to media reports, the owners of
the wells shut them in after an OCC request. An average of 68 barrels of saltwater
a day was reported, with the flow diverted
to a temporary holding area.
"No pun intended, but when this issue
started to surface our group came together,"
Herell indicated. "The Producers Committee and the Service Committee came
together. That put everybody in the same
room and we started talking about the issue. We are already are putting processes
in place to protect operators, landowners
and service companies."
Herell added that he hoped the Alliance
effort would lead to efficiencies, a quicker
OCC permitting process and provisions for

American Oil and Gas Reporter - December 2019

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