American Oil and Gas Reporter - January 2020 - 35

Goldman Sachs foresees Brent and WTI averaging $63.00
and $58.50 a barrel, respectively, while EIA comes in at $60.51
and $55.01 for Brent and WTI, respectively, compared with
2019 averages of $63.93 and $56.74. Fitch Ratings predicts
2020 Brent prices will average $62.50 a barrel.
Those compare with the $53.75 a barrel WTI and $58.00 a
barrel Brent being budgeted by companies surveyed by Evercore
ISI for its 2020 Spending Outlook.
Respondents to The American Oil & Gas Reporter's Survey
of Independent Operators, which was e-mailed to readers in
late November/early December, say they anticipate WTI averaging
$55.59 a barrel this year.
In the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City's Third Quarter
Energy Survey of energy companies in the 10th District (Kansas,
Colorado, Nebraska, Oklahoma, Wyoming, western third of
Missouri and northern half of New Mexico), which was conducted
Sept. 16-30 and released Oct. 11, executives projected WTI
prices of $58, $60 and $63 a barrel six months, one year and
two years out, respectively.
Asked what oil price was needed to be profitable, the KC
Fed says its companies replied with a range of $35-$75,
averaging $55.00 a barrel.
Projected Activity
Evercore is projecting U.S. drilling budgets will decline
7.1% this year after falling 6.0% in 2019. West says Evercore
calculates the U.S. rig count will decline about 10% YoY, but
that completions should be down only 3%-5% as producers
continue to work their way through their remaining inventories
of drilled but uncompleted wells.

FIGURE 2
Operators' 2020 Drilling and Spending Plans
Compared with 2019

13.3

13.6
34.1

37.8
48.9

52.3

Will Drill More

Will Spend More

Will Drill Same

Will Spend Same

Will Drill Less

Will Spend Less

"We do think that once budgets reset in the new year that the
rig count should start to increase, but even with those increases
it will not be enough to make up where it has fallen from since
the start of 2019," he comments.
Narra says Raymond James is projecting U.S. capex will be
down 15% this year in the $55 oil environment indicated by the
New York Mercantile Exchange two-year futures strip in midDecember. However, he adds, if oil prices reach the $65 level
Raymond James is projecting, "We certainly think there is
potential for (capex) to increase, although because of (operators'
pledge to maintain) capital discipline, we think capex still is
going to be down 5%, even if our price forecast is correct."

Learn more at
dnow.com/morecapacity

JANUARY 2020 35


http://www.dnow.com/morecapacity

American Oil and Gas Reporter - January 2020

Table of Contents for the Digital Edition of American Oil and Gas Reporter - January 2020

Contents
American Oil and Gas Reporter - January 2020 - Intro
American Oil and Gas Reporter - January 2020 - 1
American Oil and Gas Reporter - January 2020 - 2
American Oil and Gas Reporter - January 2020 - Contents
American Oil and Gas Reporter - January 2020 - 4
American Oil and Gas Reporter - January 2020 - 5
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https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/aogr/202404
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