Flight Training - May 2013 - 54

CAREER PILOT»

Darby believes that the demand
for new airline pilots through
2020 is based upon these factors:
the age 65 retirement rule and
a significant outflow of airline
retirees; modest fleet growth; current pilot staffing ratios of about
13.5 pilots per aircraft at the major
airlines; and the new rest rules.
Those new rest rules alone will
increase the pilot ranks at the big
airlines by about 2 to 4 percent—
and from 8 to 15 percent at the
smaller carriers.
With regard to the 2010 law that
requires all pilots flying for an FAR
Part 121 airline to have an ATP
certificate, Darby predicts that it
will take three to five years for the
system to adjust. “Long story short:

there should be strong demand for
pilots who meet the new higher
minimums for at least that period
of time, barring another recession.”
Remember that this requirement
takes effect in August.
Darby makes some very bold
predictions. “I do not believe
that there is a shortage of people
who want to be pilots, although
cost is becoming an increasingly
important issue primarily due to
the inability to finance this training. Government and/or airline
support through low-cost or guaranteed loans seems increasingly
likely. Perhaps something like the
European ab initio pilot training programs may also be in the
picture, but it will take time and

sustained pilot demand leading to
shortages at the airlines for those
companies to accept this additional expense as a cost of doing
business. I would never recommend that a young pilot wait for
this type of assistance, which may
take years to develop, if ever.” But,
there is a precedent. In the 1960s,
United Airlines recruited private
pilots with only 250 hours of total
time, hired those airmen, and took
them right through their commercial pilot certificate.
“It is possible and the FAA
leadership has hinted that, once
the shortage is exacerbated—as it
is predicted—the government will
likely move toward the ICAO MPL
(multi-crew pilot license) system,

CAREER ADVISOR

THREE STRIKES

Can he get to the airlines with multiple failures?
» By Wayne Phillips

» Q: I am a commercial airplane single
and multiengine land, CFI, CFII, MEI with
more than 2,500 hours. I have had three
airline jobs as of 2008 and been furloughed
or let go from training all three times
because of economic situations where the
company was already laying off pilots.
My logbooks were accidentally destroyed
about 10 months ago. I ordered my complete
airman file from the FAA and discovered

can you give me for trying to get past this
point with airline human resources and
interviews?—John
» A: John, your story illustrates several
important points. First, a logbook is gold for
a professional flying career. When one book
is completed, it may be a very smart thing to
keep it in a safe deposit box. The good news
is that every time a new FAA Form 8710-1
is completed, that time listed in the form is a

BIG AIRLINES HAVE PLENTY OF APPLICANTS
WITH STERLING AVIATION HISTORIES.
that at age 21 I failed the instrument checkride three times in a row before passing.
I failed the multiengine commercial ride
because I went off glideslope, and then failed
the CFII. I learned an important lesson from
each. I am 38 now and finishing a degree in
aeronautics.
The new “no checkride failure” seems
to be almost a web form function that
completely annihilates any chance of getting hired on this factor alone. What advice

54 /

FLIGHTTRAINING.AOPA.ORG

snapshot certified by the FAA. So, if all else
fails, your airman file from the FAA Airman
Certification Branch in Oklahoma City will
at least give you a starting point.
You had been hired by three airlines
before being let go. Those failures did not
cause those carriers to turn you away.
The answer to checkride failures being
deal-breakers is complex. A lot depends
on the carrier. Big airlines have plenty of
applicants with sterling aviation histories.

Third-tier carriers, some regional airlines,
and some cargo haulers probably will not
care as much. The good news is that your
failures were 18 years ago, and that could be
a mitigating factor. If you had an exemplary
career—maybe picked up an ATP or type
rating along the way and you passed with
flying colors—that could tip the scale in
your favor. The more time since the last
failure, the better.
But, to be realistic, one recruiter for a
national airline said this: “We generally
overlook a CFI failure. That is a tough certificate and we know some FAA Inspectors
will fail an applicant for minor issues just
because. However, one additional failure is
generally not a problem. We ask what the
pilot has learned from the experience. A
second failure is almost the kiss of death. If
the applicant has had a stellar career since
then, well, maybe OK. Lots of time flying
corporate; chief pilot; check airman could
minimize the second failure. A third failure
is a no-go. Not going to happen.”
Launching an airline flying career with
your track record is still a possibility, but it
might not be with a carrier of choice.
Send your career questions to careers@aopa.org
and we’ll publish the best ones here.
http://FLIGHTTRAINING.AOPA.ORG
Flight Training - May 2013

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