AOPA Pilot Magazine - February 2015 - 22

LICENSE TO LEARN

The wrong question

BY ROD MACHADO

Accept no substitutions
DO YOU REMEMBER the cartoon showing a high school
student taking an eye test at the DMV? It displays a
customer service agent holding an eye chart listing
the numbers 45, 55, and 65, followed by the letters
MPH. The agent asks the student to read the chart followed by the student saying, "55 mph, 65 mph, and 75
mph." Clearly, the speed limit the student sees is not
the speed limit he thinks.
According to psychologist Daniel Kahneman in
his wonderful book Thinking, Fast and Slow, each
of us does something similar when we attempt to
answer a difficult question. It turns out that the difficult question we're asked (or we ask of ourselves) is
often different from the question we think about as
we formulate an answer.

When we encounter a question of this complexity,
the fast-thinking part of our mind often substitutes
an easier question for us to answer.

ROD MACHADO'S

newest book is the
How to Fly An
Airplane Handbook.

22 | AOPA PILOT February 2015

Kahneman posits that our mind is organized into
a fast-thinking (intuitive, reflexive) part and a slowerthinking (logical or "think it over") part. Since most
of us have an intuitive opinion about most things, the
fast-thinking part is naturally inclined to offer a quick
response to any question we encounter. On the other
hand (or cranial lobe), it takes time and effort for the
slower-thinking or logical part to thoughtfully answer
a difficult question.
Thinking is hard work, which is why the slowthinking part of our mind often behaves like a couch
potato; it's lazy. This explains why the fast-thinking
part often takes the lead in attempting to answer any
question we encounter, even if it's a difficult one.
But what happens when the fast-thinking part of
our mind encounters a question that's either too difficult or too abstract-or it lacks sufficient information
upon which to intuit an answer? No problem. It simply formulates a similar but easier question to answer,
all without our being consciously aware that it has
done so. Kahneman calls this process substitution.
Unfortunately, the substitution of an easier question
for a difficult one might not provide the information
we originally sought.
For example, suppose you see a nick on the leading edge of your propeller. The risk-assessment

question the FAA wants you to ask is, "What is the
risk associated with operating an airplane with a
nicked propeller?" Estimating the probability of a
propeller blade fracture is a very difficult question to
answer with any precision. After all, the FAA doesn't
maintain a "likely to crack off" statistical database for
propeller nicks of variable sizes, shapes, dimensions,
locations, and so on.
When we encounter a question of this complexity,
the fast-thinking part of our mind often substitutes
an easier question for us to answer. It might, for
instance, substitute the question Do I know of other
pilots who have flown with a nick in their airplane's
propeller? The fast-thinking part can more easily
intuit an answer to this similar but easier question.
Unfortunately, the answer tells us very little about the
risk of operating with a nicked propeller.
If that weren't disturbing enough, Kahneman suggests that the fast-thinking part of our mind is more
likely to generate substitute questions that reflect
our current emotional state. Suppose you ask yourself, "Do I feel competent to make this flight?" This
question requires introspection and a fair amount of
careful thinking. It's not an easy question to answer.
That's why we are likely to unknowingly substitute an
easier question in its place, such as what is my mood
right now?
While your mood might have some effect on your
competence, it's certainly not more important than
the quantity and quality of your recent training. If
you are not aware that you've failed to answer your
original question, then you've likely failed to properly
evaluate your ability to fly safely.
Herein lies the problem for pilots. We must be
aware of the tendency for the fast-thinking part of
our mind to substitute easier and less relevant questions for the ones we originally asked. This is why we
should check for substitution every time we encounter any question, especially those deserving serious
contemplation.
We need to ask ourselves whether we've obtained
the information we originally sought. If the answer
is, "No," then we should ask the original question
again.
Said another way, accept no substitutions. AOPA
WEB

www.rodmachado.com


http://www.rodmachado.com

AOPA Pilot Magazine - February 2015

Table of Contents for the Digital Edition of AOPA Pilot Magazine - February 2015

Contents
AOPA Pilot Magazine - February 2015 - Cover1
AOPA Pilot Magazine - February 2015 - Cover2
AOPA Pilot Magazine - February 2015 - Contents
AOPA Pilot Magazine - February 2015 - 2
AOPA Pilot Magazine - February 2015 - 3
AOPA Pilot Magazine - February 2015 - 4
AOPA Pilot Magazine - February 2015 - 5
AOPA Pilot Magazine - February 2015 - 6
AOPA Pilot Magazine - February 2015 - 7
AOPA Pilot Magazine - February 2015 - 8
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AOPA Pilot Magazine - February 2015 - 46
AOPA Pilot Magazine - February 2015 - 47
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AOPA Pilot Magazine - February 2015 - Cover3
AOPA Pilot Magazine - February 2015 - Cover4
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