AOPA Pilot Magazine - June 2018 - 89

CONVECTIVE OUTLOOKS

come from the Storm
Prediction Center and
give you several days'
worth of anticipated
areas of severe and
"general" thunderstorms.
The green areas on
this chart show where
general thunderstorms
may occur. Severe
thunderstorms are those
with 50-knot or greater
surface winds, one inch
or larger-diameter hail,
or tornadoes.

TWISTERDATA'S WEBSITE

lets you choose among
three different forecast
models, and can show
areas where CAPE
(Convective Available
Potential Energy) is
highest. On this chart,
CAPE is conducive to
strong thunderstorms in
east Texas.

WHERE
YOU
NEED IT
COAST-TO-COAST
COVERAGE - NO GAPS
NO ALTITUDE
LIMITATIONS
NO LINE-OF-SITE
RESTRICTIONS
Available on:

future-the RAP (Rapid Refresh), the
NAM (North American Mesoscale), and
the GFS (Global Forecast System). These
all predict a huge number of variables,
including CAPE and radar reflectivity.
The NAM predicts in one-hour intervals
out to 21 hours; the GFS has the longest
legs, extending to a whopping 17 days into
the future for some products.
Click on the model you want to see
across the top of the webpage, then select
among the dropdown menus along the
left side to see the variables. CAPE is
under "Instability," and composite radar
reflectivity is under the RAP and NAM
"Precipitation" menus. Try a little exploring
to see each models' ideas of future winds,
moisture, and vorticity (the atmospheric
"spin" that intensifies thunderstorms) and
you'll be surprised what you can learn.
Just bear in mind that these forecast models are fallible, more so the

further into the future you demand of
them. They're artificial constructs created by equations and observations fed
into computers, and simply can't precisely duplicate or project what nature
will actually create in the atmosphere.
They're subject to the same chaos that
plagues any prediction where assumptions about interactions among initial
conditions-say, temperature, pressure,
or moisture-turn out to be false, or
change in random ways.
The good news is that forecasts are
becoming more accurate all the time. There
will be exceptions, of course, but you can
be fairly confident about most model forecasts up to three to five days into the future.
Which means they're well worth a look
when planning a flight later today, tomorrow, or beyond.
AOPA
EMAIL tom.horne@aopa.org

www.aopa.org/pilot AOPA PILOT | 89

2-MONTH TRIAL offer at
AOPA.org/SiriusXM

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AOPA Pilot Magazine - June 2018

Table of Contents for the Digital Edition of AOPA Pilot Magazine - June 2018

Contents
AOPA Pilot Magazine - June 2018 - Intro
AOPA Pilot Magazine - June 2018 - Cover1
AOPA Pilot Magazine - June 2018 - Cover2
AOPA Pilot Magazine - June 2018 - Contents
AOPA Pilot Magazine - June 2018 - 2
AOPA Pilot Magazine - June 2018 - 3
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AOPA Pilot Magazine - June 2018 - 19a
AOPA Pilot Magazine - June 2018 - 19b
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AOPA Pilot Magazine - June 2018 - Cover3
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