AOPA Pilot Magazine - January 2020 - 77

on over in North Dakota unless someone
tells me. I can see it on the radar and satellite. I can use interpretive skills and things
like that. But it's really nice to verify. In the
winter, let's say I'm forecasting moderate
icing and planes are shooting through there
and reporting trace, trace, nil. I'm thinking
something's going on there. I need to check
into that. The pireps are a validation of our
forecast-in the same sense that no pireps
are also important. If I forecast an area of
moderate turbulence and I'm not getting
any reports, is it because I over-forecasted
that area and everyone has smooth rides
and no one cares, or are they actually
avoiding that area and the forecast is legit?"
It seems like most of the work in the
center is for commercial and private jets,
the pilots hanging out in Class A. If I've
just left the Fargo Jet Center, I say, and am
cruising around at 5,000 feet in a 172, do
you want to hear from me?
"I come from Alaska," Sego says. "I'm
conditioned to think about impacts on GA.
It's easy to think we're all about higher flight

levels. But that's not true. It's a big deal if
you're getting thrashed around in a mountain wave, for example. The models don't
show the threat from terrain. Terrain influences are huge. That's where reports come
in. That's where experience comes in."
"Oh, absolutely," Leffler adds.
"Absolutely. The pilot is the eyes-forward
for the meteorologist. Absolutely."
What do you do, I ask, with the pilot
whose pirep is exaggerated, when light to
moderate turbulence is the worst air he or
she has ever flown through?
"We understand that," he says. "That's
part of reading pireps. And we back that
up with surrounding reports. Sometimes,
though, a pilot hits the jackpot and gets
thrown around when no one else near him
does. It can be very localized. The objectivity, based on the pilot's experience, is just a
part of the pireps.
"We're kind of at a disadvantage in aviation," he says. "In the same way that a forecast
office can see the rotation of a radar-indicated
tornado, I can't normally get the same level of

verification." There are signatures, like wave
clouds, but the meteorologists need pireps to
validate some forecasts.
"But not all pireps are equal," he says. "A
pirep from a small, single-engine flier is going
to be a lot different than an Airbus. How do
you come to terms with multiple airframes
that are flying out of the same airport but
reporting different conditions? What is the
weather for that airport? That's something
that we kind of constantly have to come to
terms with. We only have one airmet now. Is
that airmet for the larger aircraft, the smaller
aircraft, all aircraft? Right now we treat it as
all aircraft. But in reality, in winter, with gusty
winds, you could have moderate to severe
turbulence for the small aircraft."
Leffler pauses. "As a forecaster, our job
is to support those who fly. Flight safety is
everything we do here. And how that message is consumed is really important." AOPA
W. SCOTT OLSEN is an aviation writer and

private pilot living in Moorhead, Minnesota,
who teaches at Concordia College.

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AOPA Pilot Magazine - January 2020

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