The Crush - June 2019 - 3


Prepare Now for The Next Big Quake


By John Aguirre
"On the move" is an expression that fittingly describes
California, but maybe not for the reasons you are thinking. Over
the course of a century, areas east of the San Andreas fault will
on average shift approximately 12 feet north of those areas to
the west of the fault. To illustrate that point, Pinnacles National
Monument in Monterey County was originally part of a much
larger volcanic complex, the other half of which, known as the
Neenach Volcanics, is 200 miles southeast in Los Angeles County.
Aside from making for interesting geological trivia, Californians
ought to be concerned.
Despite such quakes as Loma Prieta in 1989, Northridge in 1994
and Napa in 2014, major California faults like the San Andreas
have been unusually calm for past 100 years. In fact, in a recent
report, scientists at the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) termed
the absence of profound, groundbreaking quakes in the last 100
years on any of the San Andreas, San Jacinto or Hayward faults
as unprecedented. USGS scientists predict on average these faults
deliver three to four groundbreaking earthquakes per century.
The calm of the past 100 years may not bode well for us in the
next 100-year period.
In 2008, Dr. Lucile Jones and a team of scientists prepared a
report for the USGS that predicted a magnitude 7.8 earthquake
along the San Andreas fault in the Los Angeles metro area would
cause 1,800 deaths and produce $213 billion in economic losses.
Similar scenarios apply to the San Francisco Bay Area.
With fault lines defining much of California's coastal landscape,
from Mendocino to Santa Barbara County, the threat of
earthquakes is a constant reality for many wineries and growers.
The California Office of Emergency Services advises people
and businesses to be prepared to survive for two to three days
with no assistance from emergency responders in the event of a
catastrophic earthquake.
In addition to damaged homes and commercial structures,
earthquakes can sever major thoroughfares - roads, overpasses
and bridges - and water lines. Earthquakes and the resultant
damage to gas lines often lead to fires in urban areas, but broken
water lines and blocked traffic arteries mean firefighters will
struggle to suppress active fires. In the wake of an earthquake,
communities must cope with widespread damage to homes and

businesses, limited access to
water and power, and disrupted
supply chains that hinder access
to food and medicine, which
means those who can will flee
earthquake damaged areas.
The displacement of people
from quake affected areas can
impose significant burdens on
nearby communities fortunate
enough to escape the damaging
effects of the earthquake. A magnitude 7.8 earthquake in San
Francisco or the East Bay is likely to result in a massive migration
of people to Sacramento and other unaffected areas of the state.
Many of these refugees would likely have no insurance coverage
as a safety net and may have only a few possessions. Even if you
live in an area with a low risk of seismic activity, you should
consider this: How would the sudden arrival of tens of thousands
of potentially desperate people affect your community?
The Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast estimates
there is a 93 percent probability of California experiencing a
7.0 or larger earthquake by 2045, with the highest probabilities
occurring along the San Andreas fault system. As a point of
reference, the Napa quake of 2014 was a magnitude 6.0. A
magnitude 8.0 earthquake would release 1,000 times more energy
than a 6.0 quake, over a larger area and would last longer. The
damage from an 8.0 quake would be devastating.
Unfortunately, too many of us are not prepared for what is
certain to occur. California is certain to experience devastating
earthquakes - and very likely within our lifetimes. So, it's
imperative that you take at least the most basic measures to
prepare: make sure you have adequate insurance coverage and
put together a disaster preparedness kit consisting of water, food,
basic first aid materials, lights, radio, batteries and cash to last at
least three days for you and your family.


JUNE 2019 / 3

The Crush - June 2019

Table of Contents for the Digital Edition of The Crush - June 2019

The Crush - June 2019 - 1
The Crush - June 2019 - 2
The Crush - June 2019 - 3
The Crush - June 2019 - 4
The Crush - June 2019 - 5
The Crush - June 2019 - 6
The Crush - June 2019 - 7
The Crush - June 2019 - 8
The Crush - June 2019 - 9
The Crush - June 2019 - 10
The Crush - June 2019 - 11
The Crush - June 2019 - 12