Sustainable Plastics - May/June 2022 - 11

opinion
Plastics and net zero
Wake Smith
ingly difficult things, that's a very
promising start.
And if we reach those goals
quickly, that would also be a
very promising end. Global
net zero by mid-century would
essentially solve the climate
problem. We would expect peak
temperatures late in this century
of perhaps 1.5°C above the late
19th century baseline, which is
only 0.4°C higher than where
we stand today. No doubt, that
would mean more weird weather
and intense storms and
floods and droughts than we
experience today, but frankly, on
a global scale, the climate damages
we experience today are
mostly pretty survivable. What
makes them frightening is their
implication that worse is yet to
come. However, with the better
part of a century to further
prepare for them, the additional
damages brought on by a 1.5°C
temperature anomaly would
likely be minimal for most of
humanity. We would put climate
change in the " bullet dodged "
category, like the fictitious asteroid
hurtling towards earth that
some action hero just manages
to divert at the last moment.
But that presumed positive
Net zero ambition is overtaking the plastics industry, and that is
by and large a good thing. Plastics account for 4-5% of humanity's
total greenhouse gas output, so there is no overall net zero without
major changes in this industry. By Wake Smith.
F
or the plastics industry,
the challenge is
particularly acute, as it
is carbon-intensive at
every step of its life cycle. From
procuring the required energy
to cracking the hydrocarbons
to turning resin into usable
products to incinerating those
products (sometimes) after use,
plastics entail a huge carbon
footprint. In response, plastic
and petrochemical companies,
including Dow Chemical, among
others, have joined peers in different
economic sectors by setting
targets to achieve net zero,
often by mid-century.
Time will tell how realistic
these programs prove to be. The
detailed action plans behind
them are not in all cases well
fleshed out, and one could be
forgiven for taking with a grain
of salt long-term pledges whose
burdens will primarily fall upon
the successors of at the podium.
But before action, there must be
ambition, so if leaders are making
bold pledges to do exceedoutcome
hinged entirely on the
word " quickly " . If instead we
reach net zero slowly - like by
the end of the century or beyond
- then we are likely headed for
something like 3°C rather than
1.5°. A 3°C change in global average
surface temperatures would
be utterly profound, as it is likely
to dramatically alter the wind
and ocean currents that distribute
rain and warmth all over the
planet and thereby define where
plants, animals and humans can
thrive rather than struggle. A key
facet of the climate story only
dimly understood outside the
science community is that once
emitted into the atmosphere,
CO2 endures for centuries to
millennia. This means the future
climate will be informed not by
our current emissions or recent
emissions, but by our aggregate
emissions ever since the onset
of the Industrial Revolution. The
longer we keep emitting, the
more greenhouse gases there
continued on page 12
May/June 2022
11
Sustainable Plastics - May/June 2022

Table of Contents for the Digital Edition of Sustainable Plastics - May/June 2022
